On the ground in Libya, Mohamed Eljarh, a fellow with the Atlantic Council, said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the UN-brokered accord, which aims to reconcile Libya’s two competing governments. Furthermore, Eljarh told The Cipher Brief that ISIS is now attacking the country’s oil infrastructure and that Libya’s armed groups fear combating ISIS.
The Cipher Brief: What are the current political dynamics in Libya?
Mohamed Eljarh: Ever since the overthrow of Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, people have felt increasingly insecure in their cities, towns, and their own homes. The country is currently divided between two competing governments – some would say that number is now up to three including the internationally recognized government that came out of the UN peace agreement – and there are entire Libyan cities that not under government control.
One government is the internationally recognized House of Representatives based in Eastern Libya, in the city of Tobruk, which is also supported by the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar. In the West, there is the Tripoli government, which is dominated by Islamists and backed by the General National Congress. The Tripoli government is also supported by very powerful armed groups and militias that are based in the cities of Misrata and Tripoli, as well as in the surrounding areas.
All of this provides groups, such as ISIS, with opportunities to dominate and exploit the situation to their advantage and expand their territory and their areas of influence in Libya.
In the second half of 2014, a UN peace process was launched to form a unified Libyan government, and an agreement was signed on December 17, 2015.
TCB: What is the current status of the UN-brokered peace accord?
ME: On Monday, the internationally recognized government in Tobruk approved the political agreement in principle, although they decided to drop Article 8 of the Additional Revisions.
However, although the framework of the UN-agreement was approved, the list of proposed cabinet members was rejected. Tobruk government officials said that the proposed unity government had too many ministries—32 in total—and they requested that the presidential council that is in charge of selecting the government go back and present a new government with no more than 17 ministries within 10 days.
Now, we are in a waiting stage. A new list of proposed cabinet members will be presented 10 days from Monday.
There is a second crucial issue here. For the recent UN-brokered political agreement to become effective, a constitutional amendment must be passed in order to establish this agreement as part of the constitution, which was originally drafted in 2011 by the then-ruling Transitional Council. This amendment requires a very significant majority, which is 129 votes in total according to a member of the Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee within the House of Representatives in Tobruk. This committee is currently looking into the amendment issue in hopes that a proposal can be brought before the House of Representatives by next week. The House of Representatives will then discuss and decide whether or not to endorse the amendment.
TCB: Does ISIS maintain a significant presence or influence in Libya?
ME: ISIS first appeared in the eastern town of Derna, around 175 kilometers from Tobruk, where the internationally recognized parliament, the House of Representatives, is located. ISIS currently controls the city of Sirte, Gadhafi’s hometown and former stronghold. It also controls between 150-200 kilometers of the Libyan coast in central Libya. ISIS has also expanded to the town of Abu Grein, located to the south of Sirte. Further, they control the towns of Nawfliyah and Bin Jawad, which are around 40 kilometers from Libya’s main two oil terminals.
TCB: How have ISIS’s attacks on Libya’s oil refineries impacted Libya’s oil sector?
ME: Recently, there have been several attacks near the oil terminals. ISIS launched an initial attack to try and take control of the oil facilities, but they were beaten back by the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) led by Ibrahim Jathran. The PFG was able to inflict significant ISIS casualties.
However, in the last few days, ISIS decided to strike again. This time, they did not attempt to gain control over the infrastructure or the sites but rather aimed to damage and sabotage them. That’s precisely what happened. Within Libya’s two main oil terminals, ISIS targeted seven crude oil storage facilities tanks and bombed one of the main crude oil pipelines. Libya’s losses exceed by many accounts, including the National Oil Corporation in Libya, more than $1 billion. That is a significant number. ISIS’ strategy is clear: if they are unable to control the oil facilities, the oil fields, and the oil sector, then they will destroy it. That is precisely what is happening. These attacks will deprive the future Unity Government the oil revenues it urgently needs to be functional.
ISIS is able to successfully carry out attacks due to the fact that there is a huge trust deficit between the most powerful armed factions in Libya. These armed factions do not cooperate with each other. When ISIS attacked the oil terminals, only Ibrahim Jathran and the PFG stood in defense. They did not receive any help from the army in the east led by General Haftar because General Haftar and Jathran do not like each other and do not get along. Thus, ISIS is able to operate and become a significant player because the key armed factions in Libya do not want to fight ISIS and will only fight ISIS if they are attacked. The main reason for this hesitance to fight ISIS is due to the fact that these armed factions are worried that their resources and men will be consumed while battling ISIS, and their weakened state would provide their other rivals with a chance to hit them.
TCB: What role has Egypt played in combatting ISIS in Libya?
ME: Egypt has a huge interest in tackling the issue of armed extremists in Eastern Libya. Yet the only time that Egypt conducted airstrikes against ISIS was in Derna after ISIS beheaded Egyptian Coptic Christians in Sirte. Egypt stated it maintains the right to carry out further action if its citizens are being threatened by ISIS. As we know, Egypt is extremely busy with domestic terrorism that is widespread in the Sinai and would most likely only be interested in taking action in Libya under a regional or international umbrella. Egyptian forces have been conducting operations on the Egyptian-Libyan border, but these are considered to be routine, rather than anything else. Perhaps Egypt has increased the number of patrols, the number of guards, and its monitoring or reconnaissance missions over the area, but Egypt has not taken any major action against ISIS in Libya since the airstrikes in Derna.
TCB: Does al-Qaeda continue to maintain a presence in Libya?
ME: There are various al-Qaeda linked or affiliated groups operating in Libya. They are mainly based in Derna, in Eastern Libya, but al-Qaeda also maintains a presence in Ajdabiya as well as in Benghazi. In Benghazi, ISIS and al-Qaeda are fighting side-by-side against the army, which is very ironic and shows how fluid alliances are. However, ISIS and al-Qaeda linked affiliates are fighting each other in Derna. In addition, al-Qaeda linked groups are present in Tripoli and Zawai in western Libya, where many of the former leaders of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group are currently located.
TCB: Where do you see the situation headed?
ME: First of all, even if the political agreement is completely endorsed by the House of Representatives, a constitutional amendment is passed, and a unity government is formed, that government will face the difficulty of returning to Tripoli, because the groups that are in control of Tripoli at the moment have made it clear that they do not recognize this political agreement and that they will not give up Tripoli without a fight. The Tripoli government said that if this UN backed government attempts to enter Tripoli, they will consider it a declaration of war. This indicates that political transition will not be so smooth.
Second, it is almost certain that foreign intervention in Libya is imminent. For the international community, it is important to have a Libyan government that is internationally recognized and that can “invite” them to come start a campaign against ISIS. An invitation would make it legal for countries such as France, UK, the U.S., and Italy, to go in and intervene against ISIS.
Some forms of foreign intervention have already happened. Over the last few weeks, we have seen unidentified airstrikes in Libya against ISIS targets. These unidentified airstrikes are most likely French and they will most likely continue. Additionally, there are security, defense, and intelligence personnel from the U.S., UK, and France on the ground in Libya. They have been there for some time now. They are in the tens—not a huge number, but these are people who are trying to identify the players, the forces, and the groups that they can rely on as forces on the ground if there were to be an air campaign against ISIS.
The best way for any foreign intervention in Libya to succeed in reducing ISIS’ influence, territory, and ability in Libya is by ensuring that as many armed groups as possible are reconciled and are built into one grand coalition to fight ISIS. These groups cannot hold back and leave the door open for ISIS just because they are worried that one of them is trying to undermine the other, or one of them might take a shot at the other if they had the chance. So reconciling local groups would be an important first step for any foreign intervention to be successful in Libya.
TCB: What will be the biggest challenges to the formation of a unified Libyan government?
ME: The biggest questions revolve around the issue of Tripoli, the security arrangement within the political agreement, and whether General Haftar will remain in power or be considered an obstacle to peace and taken out. Will his opponents accept that he will stay and remain a necessary evil for the time being?
There is also the issue of how the unity government will handle the situation in Tripoli. Will they go to war in order to reclaim Tripoli or will they decide be based in a different Libyan city – a move that could present a negative image of the government? This could be quite detrimental, especially since all of the ministries and government buildings that the government needs are based in Tripoli. These issues will be extremely important and determine how the government of national accord will do.
