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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

There Will be Unseen Costs to be Paid over the War in Iran. Who is Weighing Them?

As Negotiations Enter an ‘Operational Pause’, the Devil of any Deal is still in the Details.

TOPSHOT-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-TRANSPORT-HORMUZ

EXPERT INTERVIEW – With an interim agreement expected as early as today between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping [...] More

Middle East Iran Brad Christian
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The Open Source Report

U.S. Conducts Blockade Operations Near Strait Of Hormuz ARABIAN SEA - APRIL 16: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) conducts U.S. blockade operations related to the Strait of Hormuz on April 16, 2026 in the Arabian Sea. The ship's embarked carrier air wing includes eight F-35C stealth fighters, F/A-18 fighter jets, EA-18G electronic attack aircraft, E-2D command and control planes, MH-60 helicopters and CMV-22B Ospreys for logistics support. (Handout Photo by the U.S. Navy via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, August 14, 2026

U.S. sending fresh aircraft carrier to Middle East as Hegseth disputes reports of poor conditions

Covert CIA program said to be behind mysterious attacks on Galápagos boats

U.S. presses NATO allies on ideological loyalty, cohesion ahead of troop cuts

‘Cyber privateers’: Trump turns to private sector in offensive hacking operations memo

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

It is in the U.S. interest to Support Democratic Legitimacy in Venezuela

Ambassador Patrick Duddy

The Trump administration’s response to the catastrophic earthquakes that hit Venezuela seven weeks ago was impressive: timely, massive and appropriate. This should reassure those who worried that the administration’s [...] More

Opinion

It’s Time For The President To Level With The American People on Iran

Mark Fowler

The U.S. administration’s strategic expectations are increasingly colliding with a set of hard realities. While Iran has taken a considerable beating, it remains standing and does not appear on the verge of either [...] More

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News & Analysis

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

Tech/Cyber Xen

Opinion

The Dollar's Next Battlefield Isn't a Country. It's Code.

Dustin Palmer

The Dollar's Next Battlefield Isn't a Country. It's Code.

Money is moving onto new rails, built in code instead of wires and vaults, and that shift is quietly reshaping a tool that America has relied on for [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

Technology Has Not Replaced Geography and Human Judgment
Technology Has Not Replaced Geography and Human Judgment

Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience
Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience

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The Best National Security Gossip

THE KREMLIN’S HIT JOB IN POLAND? The Associated Press reports that Poland has foiled an alleged Russian plot to assassinate a Ukrainian-American citizen in Warsaw—the first known attempt by Russia to target a U.S. citizen on the territory of another NATO country, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Polish authorities arrested a Russian citizen on Aug. 7 who allegedly had been recruited by Russian intelligence. The operation to thwart the would-be assassin was said to have been conducted in cooperation with U.S. intelligence services. But the identity of the intended victim—and precisely how the hit was [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Artificial intelligence is transforming cyber warfare - and former NSA Director and U.S. Cyber Command Commander Gen. Paul Nakasone says the speed of that transformation demands a new approach to America’s defense.

In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with Gen. Nakasone to discuss how AI is reshaping offensive and defensive cyber operations - and why increasingly autonomous systems could fundamentally change the role humans play in cyber conflict.

They examine China’s penetration of U.S. telecommunications and critical infrastructure, cyber threats from Iran, Russia and North Korea, the growing ransomware threat, the race to prepare for quantum computing, and what Ukraine is teaching the world about autonomous warfare.

Gen. Nakasone also explains why America’s intelligence capabilities remain a critical competitive advantage, why defending critical infrastructure requires deeper partnerships between government and the private sector, and what national security leaders should be watching now.