What Will the U.S. do if Israel Crosses “Red Line” in Gaza?

SOUTHERN ISRAEL, ISRAEL – MARCH 10: An Israeli tank moves near the border with the Gaza Strip as seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on March 10, 2024 in southern Israel. Over last weekend, the vice president of the United States voiced that country’s most forceful demand yet that there be an immediate ceasefire in the conflict, imploring Hamas to agree to the a six-week pause in fighting and calling on Israel to increase the flow of aid into the territory. (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images)

By Peter Green

Peter S. Green is a veteran foreign correspondent who has covered wars, revolutions and the evolution of democracy, capitalism and authoritarianism in Eastern Europe and the Balkans for The Times of London, the International Herald Tribune and the New York Times. He’s now based in New York, where he writes on both business and international affairs.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING –As President Joe Biden and other world leaders grow increasingly frustrated with the bloody stalemate in Gaza—no release of hostages, no end to the fighting and no relief from pain and hunger for Gaza’s two million civilians — Biden’s recent warning of a “red line” for Israel has been welcomed in many parts of the globe as a sign that the U.S. is willing to use its leverage with Israel to force a change in the conduct of the war. But in a matter of days, the warning has been blasted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and its enforcement called into question by officials and analysts who doubt that the White House will do much if the red lines are crossed. 

When Biden was asked by MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart whether an Israeli invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than one million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, would constitute a “red line,” Biden replied, “It is a red line but I’m never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical. So there’s no red line (in which) I’m going to cut off all weapons.” The president then added, “There’s red lines, and if he crosses—you cannot have 30,000 Palestinians dead. There’s other ways to deal with the trauma caused by Hamas.” 

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