The Pathways to a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal

After talks in Oman, experts assess the likelihood of an agreement to rein in Iran's nuclear weapons program

This combination of pictures created on April 09, 2025 shows US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff after a meeting with Russian officials at Diriyah Palace, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18, 2025 (L); and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking to AFP during an interview at the Iranian consulate in Jeddah on March 7, 2025. (Photo by EVELYN HOCKSTEINAMER HILABI/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – In the early days of the Trump administration, talk of peace deals and ceasefires were focused on the wars in Ukraine and in Gaza. Nearly 3 months later, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are faltering, and a Gaza cease-fire has collapsed, but there is fresh hope on a third geopolitical front: negotiations for a new agreement to ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. 

Iranian and U.S. negotiators met in Oman Saturday, the first high-level talks between the two countries in years. The fact that the meeting happened at all was taken as a good sign; then came pronouncements from both sides that the initial conversations had been productive, and an agreement to hold another round this weekend. Perhaps most telling were comments by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump himself saying that the U.S. does not seek the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program – only that it never be permitted to possess a nuclear weapon. “I’m not asking for much, they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” the president said. “I want them to thrive. I want Iran to be great.”

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