Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

The Honors Awards
cipherbrief

Welcome! Log in to stay connected and make the most of your experience.

Input clean

The Constitutional and Strategic Fallout of Trump’s Strike on Iran

OPINION — “[Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS. He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do. This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country.”

That was a Truth Social message posted by President Trump at 4:37 pm last Saturday, just some 14 hours after Trump’s initial taped 2:57 am early morning announcement that the U.S. had begun air attacks against Iran was released over X social media.


In that first taped message, Trump had said, "Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let's see how you respond.”

I believe Americans will come to regret what their president, Donald Trump, said he was “willing to do tonight,” for the Iranian people, which was to kill their leader, as bad as he was, along with other senior Iranian leaders. Perhaps only a few of us older people remember the mid-1970s scandal over CIA plots to kill Fidel Castro that led to congressional hearings.

The Trump administration should remember that U.S. plotting and carrying out the killing of adversary leaders could easily generate attacks against American presidents and/or senior leaders.

I also do not believe this is the way U.S. military forces should be used against countries or their leaders that do not pose an imminent danger to American forces abroad or the U.S. homeland --with prior approval of Congress.

What President Trump has done is to initiate a war. He said it himself in that first February 28 statement: “The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.”

Trump recognizes this is a war, however, under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress is supposed to be able to declare war. I recognize this provision has often been violated by Presidents in past years, but it’s one that needs new support, primarily from Members of Congress themselves.

As I write, the situation on the ground in Iran is unclear, as are the real objectives of President Trump.

Trump told CNN’s Jake Tapper yesterday “I don’t want to see it go on too long. I always thought it would be four weeks, and we’re a little ahead of schedule.” On the other hand, Trump also spoke yesterday to ABC News’ Jonathan Karl who reported that somebody within the Iranian government has reached out to Trump. “I asked him who it was,” Karl said and Trump said, ‘I probably shouldn’t tell you’ but it was, you know, somebody who had survived. And somebody, he added, is no longer reporting to the Supreme Leader.”

Did some Iranian with authority really reach out to the Trump administration? Sad to say with this President you don’t know what’s true or false.

Iran state television press has reported a three-person leadership council has been named under Article 111 of Iran’s constitution to temporarily replace the late-Supreme Leader Khamenei. It includes Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a senior cleric and Guardian Council jurist member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, and head of the Iranian judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei.

The Iran constitution calls for a clerical assembly of 88 Guardian Council-vetted Shiite clerics, elected by the public, to appoint a new supreme leader by simple majority.

Al Jazeera reported yesterday that Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the constitutional machinery of succession was already turning and Iran could potentially elect a new supreme leader within one or two days. The country has begun a 40-day mourning period for Ayatollah Khamenei.

I also should mention that Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of Iran's last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was on Fox News yesterday and said, “I am ready to go to Iran as soon as possible. I would like to be there whether it is before the regime collapses or right after it collapses."

Last Saturday, the day the U.S. and Israeli attacks began, Reza Pahlavi had an op-ed in The Washington Post in which he said he had a detailed road map and transition plans for a post-Khamenei Iran and, “many Iranians, despite facing bullets, have called on me to lead this transition.”

Although it has received little mention over the past few days, it was an August 1953 coup, engineered by the U.S. and United Kingdom that overthrew the Iran government of then-Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and consolidated power in the hands of then-Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He, in turn, took a dictatorial turn and was deposed in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution led by Ruhollah Khomeini.

It is hard to believe that the Trump administration would try to bring back the Iran monarchy, at a time when older Iranians still resent the publicized U.S. CIA’s role in deposing of Mosaddegh.

Trump also bragged yesterday about how successful the U.S. military operation has been. “We’re knocking the crap out of them,” Tapper said Trump told him, adding the President said, “I think it’s going very well. It’s very powerful. We’ve got the greatest military in the world and we’re using it.”

Karl reported Trump said, “Nobody else could have done this but me.”

I bring up Trump’s growing affection for war over peace, because Trump has recently begun saying he wants to increase next year’s Fiscal 2027 Defense Department (DoD) budget by $500 billion – putting it at an amazing $1.5 trillion for the year.

It is unclear where all that added money would be spent – although it might indicate Trump sees other foreign countries or leaders he might want to attack, or at least threaten.

The man who just months ago saw his future as chairman of an international Board of Peace, now looks like he might rather be a rogue Policeman of the World.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Who's reading this? 500K+ dedicated national security professionals. Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because national security is everyone’s business.

Related Articles

Inside the High-Stakes U.S. Pressure Campaign on Iran

Inside the High-Stakes U.S. Pressure Campaign on Iran

EXPERT INTERVIEW – U.S. officials say a second aircraft carrier will be deployed to the Middle East amid the administration’s efforts to pressure [...] More

EU Takes Aim at Tehran: IRGC Terror Listing Opens New Front in Europe’s Iran Policy

OPINION — On January 29, Europe found its voice against Iran’s apparatus of terror. The European Union (EU) announced that it is adding Iran’s [...] More

Iran at the Breaking Point: How Afghanistan and Iraq Still Inform U.S. Strategy

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Iran is experiencing its most consequential period of internal unrest in years. Nationwide demonstrations driven by economic [...] More

Iran’s Supreme Leader Should Listen to the People

EXPERT OPINION — The Iranian people are saying they want new leadership. And it’s not too hard to understand why so many merchants, university [...] More

{{}}