Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Welcome! Log in to stay connected and make the most of your experience.

Input clean

Through an Israeli Lens: Biden and Iran

Through an Israeli Lens: Biden and Iran

Israel flag with a view of old city Jerusalem and the KOTEL- Western wall

Eldad Shavit, Sr. Researcher, INSS

Dr. Raz Zimmt, Research Fellow, INSS

Dr. Raz ZimmtResearch Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)

Dr. Raz Zimmt is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) specializing in Iran. He is also a veteran Iran-watcher in the Israeli Defense Forces.

OPINION — Former Vice President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections was received in Iran with a sense of hope that the new U.S. administration will depart from its predecessor’s Iran policy. Even if there is some sense in Iran that the prospects for change exist, the messages from Tehran emphasized that the United States' conduct will be evaluated by deeds rather than words and that the complete removal of all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration since May 2018 is a precondition for Iran's return to the negotiating table. The Iranian leadership is not expected to readily forfeit the bargaining chips it has accumulated in recent years concerning its progress in the nuclear realm. In any case, Iran will wait to see what the actual policy of the new administration is and whether the reimposed sanctions can be lifted in their entirety in the early stages of negotiations.

In the meantime, Biden and his advisers remain ambiguous about their willingness to forfeit sanctions leverage in exchange for bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. Even if the new U.S. administration is expected to focus most of its attention and resources in the coming months on domestic issues, it will likely be forced to address the Iranian nuclear programs advances with some urgency. Despite Biden's promises to return the United States to the nuclear deal, the likelihood that the administration will quickly lift all sanctions to rejoin the deal and “turn back the clock” to the last days of the Obama Administration is extremely low. Both Iran and the United States cannot ignore the developments that have taken place in each country since the JCPOA was signed in 2015.

The key question looking forward is: How can the two countries restore enough trust to allow them to negotiate seriously in the months preceding the Iranian presidential election in June 2021? The new administration will have to address some of the Iranian regime's concerns, especially as the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, views President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran deal as evidence reinforcing his long-held view that the United States cannot be trusted to uphold the agreements it has signed. Although Iran is facing an acute economic crisis, exacerbated by COVID-19, it is highly doubtful that it would return to negotiations without preconditions. Just as those who assessed that President Trump's maximum pressure strategy would force Iran to capitulate and resume negotiations were wrong, so, too, Biden's victory should not be expected to automatically return Iran to the negotiating table in the absence of adequate compensation for taking such a step.

Against this background, the new administration must formulate a coherent strategy towards Iran, which should include incentives, an offramp for the increasingly tense U.S.-Iran dynamic, and clear messages that Iran should not expect the United States to give up its bargaining leverage altogether. It is important that the administration highlights its continued determination to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon by emphasizing that it retains other options – including a military strike – for dealing with the issue if negotiations should fail. In any case, recent years have proven time and again that a policy based solely on threats and pressures is incapable for forcing Iran into a political process and might even lead to further escalation and for Tehran to dig-in on hardline positions.

The new administration would, therefore, be well-advised to take advantage of the months leading up to Iran's presidential election to restore some level of trust with Tehran, re-establish communication, and create a situation conducive for the resumption of talks. This may require confidence-building measures, such as Washington’s approval for the International Monetary Fund loan Iran sought to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic or perhaps authorizing European countries to grant Iran limited lines of credit. The pandemic provides the new administration with a favorable context which allows it to present limited concessions as humanitarian gestures rather than forfeiture of leverage.

The new administration must be prepared for a long and complicated process vis-à-vis Iran in which Tehran will likely demand compensation every step of the way – from renewing talks, to returning to the JCPOA, to expanding the agreement. In anticipation of this, the U.S. administration should retain as many “cards” as possible for the future, in particular for the possibility of negotiating a new and improved agreement which more comprehensively covers the challenges Iran poses to the international community.

It is still too early to define exactly what the United States' requirements for negotiating an improved agreement will be, but it ought to require at least a partial closure of what are considered to be the loopholes of the 2015 JCPOA through the extension of the sunset clauses, prohibition of R&D on advanced centrifuges, and expanding IAEA supervision over suspected military components of Iran's nuclear program. In addition, an improved agreement should seek to extend restrictions on Iran's missile program. Of course, even if Iran agrees to renegotiate the JCPOA, it, too, will show up to the table with far-reaching demands of its own.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief and become a member of the Cipher Brief community.

Sign up for our national security-driven, free Daily Brief Newsletter here.

Keep reading...Show less
Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member.

Related Articles

The Golden Dome is Missing a Key Focus

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION – On January 27, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order aimed at defending the U.S. against an attack by [...] More

Getting NATO to Be Able to 'Fight Tonight'

EXPERT Q&A — Last week’s NATO summit in The Hague was largely seen as a success, with all members (except Spain) agreeing to raise the alliance’s [...] More

Report for Tuesday, July 1, 2025

8:18 America/Chicago Tuesday, July 1 [...] More

Covering the Blaze the World Forgot

BOOK REVIEW: Fuji Fire: Sifting Ashes of a Forgotten U.S. Marine Corps TragedyBy Chas Henry / Potomac BooksReviewed by: Bill HarlowThe Reviewer — [...] More

The Math Behind Trump's $1 Trillion Defense Budget

OPINION — “The President's FY ‘26 [Fiscal Year 2026] National Defense Budget requests $1.01 trillion, which is a 13 percent increase from FY '25 [...] More

An Urgent Call to Close the Loopholes on Chips and China

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION -- The core lessons from the Cold War should guide us as we face the new “Axis of Aggressors” today. First among these, [...] More

Report for Monday, June 30, 2025

8:29 America/Chicago Monday, June 30 [...] More

A Good NATO Summit, Though Russia Won a Round

EXPERT Q&A — NATO leaders convened in The Hague this week for a summit aiming to strengthen the alliance's defenses, with the ever encroaching threat [...] More

NATO Wins Will Have an Impact

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT Q&A — NATO leaders convened at The Hague this week and agreed to raise the alliance’s defense spending target to 5% GDP, marking [...] More