The Syrian Government ‘Controls Most of the Population’

By Aron Lund

Aron Lund is a fellow with The Century Foundation. He is a Swedish writer on Middle Eastern affairs and has written extensively on Syrian politics. Between 2013 and 2016, he edited the site, Syria in Crisis, for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he was also a nonresident associate in 2016. He is also a fellow of the Centre for Syrian Studies at St. Andrew’s University.

As the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) squeeze the last remnants of ISIS forces in Raqqa with U.S.-led coalition support, Syrian government and Iran-backed militia forces are also making gains against ISIS in the Deir al Zour region in eastern Syria. With ISIS nearing the end of its rope in Syria, eyes turn to what the end-state of the country’s civil war will look like. The Cipher Brief’s Fritz Lodge spoke to Aron Lund early this week about how the de-confliction zones of the Russia-led Astana process allow the Assad regime to choose its battles.

The Cipher Brief: What is the current balance of forces in Syria and what are the main trends that you’re seeing?

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