Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

2025 Threat Conference
cipherbrief

Welcome! Log in to stay connected and make the most of your experience.

Input clean

Syria: A Tactical—Not Strategic—Ceasefire

The agreement between Turkey and Russia stipulates a halt to the fighting throughout Syrian territory from midnight on December 29, with the exception of areas with a Fatah al-Sham (formerly the al-Nusra Front) or Islamic State presence. In addition, the agreement provides for President Bashar al-Assad to remain in power until the end of his presidential term in June 2021. The other actors in the conflict (USA and Arab Gulf countries) and the entire Syrian opposition are invited to join the negotiations to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan planned for next month.

The UN, the United States, and even the opposition umbrella Syrian National Coalition welcomed the agreement. But make no mistake; the inclusion of Bashar el Assad's eventual departure is only a simple way of attracting the Syrian opposition to the negotiating table while allowing the Western and Gulf countries to save face by adhering to this peace process. What guarantees can Russia give on Bashar el Assad's departure in 2021?

Keep reading...Show less
Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member.
Subscriber+

Related Articles

The Math of Moscow’s War: Five Thousand Kilometers, One Million Dead and Wounded

OPINION -- “Since January 2024, Russian forces have seized approximately 5,000 square kilometers [1,931 square miles] of additional Ukrainian [...] More

It’s Time to Show Putin that the U.S. is Serious

OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – As we reach a temporary ceasefire in diplomatic progress aimed at ending the war in Ukraine - a war that has cost the [...] More

Ordinary Russians are Paying for Putin's Poor Alaska Performance

OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – The Russian state media's triumphant coverage of Vladimir Putin's August 15 meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska tells [...] More

Ex-Spy Warns of Case Officer Tactics in Trump-Putin Dynamic

EXPERT Q&A – After Friday’s meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, former CIA senior officer and [...] More

​The Weekend Interview: Former CIA Station Chief on Strategic Global Hotspots

​The Weekend Interview: Former CIA Station Chief on Strategic Global Hotspots

WEEKEND INTERVIEW: The signing of a peace framework between the President of Armenia and the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan on Friday at the White [...] More

Ukraine’s Defense may Hinge on Offensive Operations

Ukraine’s Defense may Hinge on Offensive Operations

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian cities with massive aerial assaults, two days after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged [...] More