OPINION — Russia and China are certainly concerned about the desperate state of Iran’s regime, an invaluable transactional partner to both countries. Yet they are also working to secure more strategic gains at America’s expense. Both likely prefer—and are enabling—a drawn out, grinding, and unpopular U.S.-led war that strains U.S. military reserves, alliances, global influence, and deterrence. Their shared goal is to turn successful U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran into a strategic and costly setback for Washington without overt military involvement.
Russia has earned billions due to rising global energy prices and loosened U.S. restrictions on Russian oil, possibly rescuing Russia’s weakened national budget. This provides critical funding to its war effort against Ukraine at a time when sanctions were having an impact.
The diversion of weapons systems, intelligence assets, and funding to the Middle East and reduced political pressure by the U.S. on Russia to negotiate with Ukraine favor Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine.
Russia’s provision of intelligence, upgraded drone technology, and targeting support is forcing the U.S. to employ high-demand and expensive defensive weapons. This is clearly a message by Russia that it is “paying back” the U.S. for support to Ukraine.
Like other gray-zone operations by Russia, this is a chance for Russia to enable cognitive as well as lethal operations against the U.S. For those hoping for a diplomatic path with Moscow, this is another reminder of Russia’s focus on the U.S. as its primary adversary.
China is likewise benefiting strategically. Much like Ukraine, Iran is a live laboratory for China on U.S. military capabilities, drone defenses, strength of alliances, global logistics and supply chains under pressure and, most critically, political resolve. China likely views this as invaluable as it looks toward Taiwan.
China is the primary benefactor of Iranian oil. It not only gets significant discounts; it also increasingly settles in Chinese yuan to undermine the U.S. dollar.
Strategically, the war commits U.S. forces, carriers, munition stocks, and intelligence assets in the Middle East, which takes some pressure off Chinese aggressive activities near Taiwan. China may also be calculating if a major military distraction for the U.S. at some point in the future may create conditions favorable to a more aggressive move against Taiwan.
China is also quietly providing Iran dual-use technology such as BeiDou navigation systems that enable lethal strikes by Iran against U.S., Israeli, and regional targets. In parallel, China exploits current events in the Middle East through information and cognitive operations to undermine U.S. reputation and influence while strengthening its own.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear infrastructure, and military capabilities have been impressive in precision and lethality. Those metrics are useful in a conventional sense, but this is asymmetric warfare embedded in great power competition. Russia and China are not just bystanders. They are active gray-zone participants and clear benefactors of the war, committed to a strategic defeat for the United States. Russia reaps huge energy windfalls and sees less pressure over Ukraine while China quietly observes, learns, and calibrates its options toward Taiwan.
Of course, our national security team understands these dynamics. The challenge is not to fully pivot to Iran, but to continue with a clear-eyed approach to Russia’s and China’s aspirations against the U.S. Even as the U.S. displays considerable military strength against Iran, the U.S. is vulnerable to its most capable strategic adversaries.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
