The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Trend Line Report utilizes open source data on a quarterly basis to track trends around the world that impact national and global security. We break the world down by region and provide you with a recent timeline to help understand the pace at which events were developing and provide expert insight on where they may be headed.
Middle East and North Africa
The COVID-19 virus that ravaged Iran traced back to a merchant who made business trips to Wuhan, China. Iran is believed to have suffered the most of all the countries in the Middle East from the virus outbreak with a large number of government officials falling ill early on, to include some aides close to Ayatollah Khamenei. Another trending story: amid the virus outbreak, Israel employed its intelligence services to use mobile phone data to track and contain the outbreak.
TIMELINE
- February 19: Two people died in Iran from coronavirus, the first in the Middle East. DW Middle East Eye Reuters
- February 20: Iran confirmed three new cases of coronavirus. Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur stated, "Two people have tested positive for COVID-19 in Qom and one person in Arak, bringing the total of confirmed cases to five in Iran." Al Jazeera The New Arab
- February 23: Lebanon confirmed its first case of coronavirus after an individual returned from Iran and tested positive. Middle East Monitor U.S. News and World Report VOA News
- February 23: Iran announced 15 new cases of coronavirus bringing the total number of cases in Iran to 43 with the death toll at eight. Middle East Monitor Reuters
- February 24: Kuwait reported three cases of the virus, Oman confirmed two cases, and Bahrain and Iraq both reported one case. Each of these individuals has recently travelled to Iran. Al Jazeera The Jerusalem Post Reuters
- February 26: The virus continues its spread throughout the Middle East with 26 cases in Bahrain, 25 in Kuwait, and 13 in UAE. Middle East Eye
- February 26: Iran’s rial dropped to a one year low as coronavirus cases continue to rise. Reuters
- February 27: Iranian Vice President for Women and Family Affairs, Masoumeh Ebtekar, was diagnosed with coronavirus becoming one of seven officials to be diagnosed in Iran. Chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, Mojataba Zolnour, tested positive for the virus as well. Officials stated the number of cases increased to 245 with 26 deaths meaning that 106 new cases were confirmed in the last 24 hours. Middle East Monitor The New York Times
- March 2: Mohammad Mirmohammadi, an aide to Ayatollah Khamenei, died of coronavirus. This was the third official to die of coronavirus. Iran currently has 978 confirmed cases and 54 deaths. Business Insider Time
- March 3: Twenty-three of the 290-member Iranian parliament have tested positive for coronavirus causing parliament to be suspended indefinitely. Business Insider National Post
- March 11: Iran’s Senior Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, minister of cultural heritage, handicrafts and tourism Ali Asghar Mounesan, and minister of industry, mines, and business Reza Rahmani all have been diagnosed with coronavirus. 354 Iranians have died from the virus with around 9,000 confirmed cases spanning across all 31 provinces. Al Jazeera Middle East Eye
- March 11: Bahrain accused Iran of “biological aggression” by covering up the spread of the virus and failing to stamp the passports of Bahraini travellers. Al Jazeera Reuters
- March 12: Iran reported 75 new deaths from coronavirus bringing the total to 10,075 with 429 deaths. Jerusalem Post Reuters
- March 12: Iran asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for immediate assistance in dealing with the coronavirus. Middle East Monitor Reuters The Union Journal
- March 14: An Iranian senior aide to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati, tested positive for coronavirus. Middle East Monitor
- March 19: Israeli protesters staged outside the Knesset to protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coronavirus measures. The JC The New York Times
- March 19: Israeli intelligence, the Mossad, launched a covert operation to fly in up to 100,000 coronavirus testing kits from two unnamed countries. The Guardian The Jerusalem Post
- March 20: The Syrian government has banned entry from many states who have been affected by the coronavirus although the government says it has not documented any infections yet. Reuters
- March 22: The first two coronavirus cases were confirmed in Gaza after two men returned home from Pakistan via Egypt. There have been 59 confirmed cases in the West Bank and 945 in Israel. The Guardian
- March 23: President Hassan Rouhani announced that he expects 70 percent of Iran to contract the coronavirus. Middle East Monitor
- March 23: Ayatollah Khamenei refused assistance from the United States after the U.S. imposed more sanctions on the state. Al Jazeera
- March 23: Iran will receive 20 million euros from the European Union to help alleviate the effects from the coronavirus and support Tehran’s request for IMF financial help. Middle East Monitor Reuters
- March 23: Syria confirmed its first coronavirus. Al Jazeera Middle East Monitor
- March 23: Saudi Arabia announced it will issue a nationwide curfew and the UAE announced a suspension of all flights to Saudi Arabia for two weeks. Al Jazeera Times of Israel
- March 23: Two major generals in the Egyptian military died over two days. News 24 Reuters
- March 24: Iran rejected all offers of foreign help and aid workers to assist in response to the coronavirus. The Islamic Republic alleged that the Doctors Without Borders staff would serve as spies. Al Jazeera
- March 30: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was placed on precautionary quarantine after one of his advisors and her husband tested positive for COVID-19. Al Jazeera Times of Israel
- April 1: Lebanon’s Hezbollah-led government was accused of using COVID-19 to solidify more power. A Lebanese activist said, “The government activated criminal laws to arrest and charge people at a time that it did not stop flights from [coronavirus] epicenters like Iran and ignored taking necessary measures to protect the people.” Lebanon currently has 333 coronavirus cases with a growing number in Beirut. VOA News
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa has been the least affected region thus far. However, the region did not experience its first case until early March. Several countries have declared national emergencies and imposed lockdowns. U.S. AFRICOM cancelled the military exercise African Lion while the WHO said Africa should be doing more to prepare for an outbreak.
TIMELINE
- March 2: Senegal confirmed its first case of COVID-19 becoming the second sub-Saharan African state. Nigeria confirmed the first case when an Italian national returned to the country. ANN News 24
- March 4: Senegal’s Health Ministry announced two new cases of coronavirus, bringing the country’s total to four. ANN Reuters
- March 6: Cameroon confirmed its first two cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of reported cases in sub-Saharan Africa to nine. News 24 Reuters
- March 10: U.S. Army Africa’s military leaders have decided to reduce the multinational exercise African Lion over coronavirus. Military Times
- March 10: Morocco’s Health Ministry has confirmed the country’s first death, as the Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed its first case. ANN News 24
- March 12: Senegal announced five new cases of coronavirus, making it the worst affected country in the region, bringing the total number of cases to ten. News 24
- March 13: Sudan reported its first death from a case of coronavirus. Bus services to and from Egypt were stopped and authorities suspended all flights to eight countries affected by the virus. The New York Times VOA News
- March 15: Ethiopia's Health Minister Lia Tadesse confirmed the country's first case of coronavirus. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he had secured a continent-wide support from Chinese businessman Jack Ma. ANN VOA News
- March 16: The World Bank committed $60 million to help Kenya fight the coronavirus outbreak. The virus has spread to at least 30 countries on the continent. BBC Reuters
- March 16: U.S. AFRICOM canceled the multinational exercise African Lion, citing it was doing so to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Army Times
- March 16: South Africa declared a “national state of disaster” and President Cyril Ramaphosa effectively shut down all borders, schools, and large gatherings across the country. Reuters VOA News VOA News
- March 18: The Nigerian government announced a travel ban from several countries, including China, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The government also announced an additional five cases, bringing the total to eight cases in the country. CNN ANN
- March 18: Zimbabwe's president declared a state of national disaster despite no cases of coronavirus. News 24
- March 19: Burkina Faso announced its first death from coronavirus. ANN News 24
- March 19: The Head of the World Health Organization said that Africa must do more to prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus. BBC
- March 22: A cargo flight containing more than six million medical supplies from Chinese billionaire Jack Ma arrived in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa. VOA News
- March 23: South Africa imposed a three-week lockdown. Bloomberg
- March 24: The Nigerian president’s chief of staff, who is in his 70s, has tested positive for coronavirus. Reuters
- March 31: Botswana responded to his country’s first case of coronavirus by declaring an indefinite state of emergency. MSN VOA News
- March 31: The Ethopian electoral commission postponed the parliamentary and presidential elections previously scheduled for August. Al Jazeera France 24
- March 31: South African announced it will launch door-to-door coronavirus screening. At least 10,000 field workers will be conducting mass testing for the virus amid the current 21-day lockdown. There are more than 1,326 confirmed cases in South Africa. VOA News
The Cipher Brief’s OSINT Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI
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