Today, we bring you the overall global story of the year as well as other important trending stories from the Americas. Throughout the week, we will bring you the trending open source stories from the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and Asia.
The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report April 2020 is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer.
Global
A novel coronavirus strand traced back to Wuhan province, China began rapidly spreading around the globe. The spread of the virus caught much of the world off guard and has substantially impacted global financial markets. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health emergency in late January and declared it a pandemic in mid-March. The death toll from the virus surpassed that of the SARS virus in the first quarter. The outbreak has also raised significant questions around national security issues, privacy issues and business continuity issues. The private sector stepped in offering mobile phone location data to track and try to prevent the pandemic’s spread. Russia and China launched massive disinformation campaigns about the virus.
- January 23: The World Health Organization declined to declare the new coronavirus outbreak as a global health emergency. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency,” said the WHO director-general, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The Hill Scientific American
- January 29: In response to the outbreak, several airlines suspended or cancelled flights to China including American Airlines, British Airways, Indonesian Lion Air, and Lufthansa. DW France 24 The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post
- January 30: The World Health Organization declared the spread of the coronavirus as a global health emergency. The virus has infected over 8,200 people and killed more than 200. Eighteen countries have confirmed cases. BBC CNBC The New York Times
- February 9: The death toll from coronavirus rose to 811, making it more deadly than the 2003 SARS virus. The total number of those confirmed infected with the virus rose to 37,198. The New York Times
- February 17: Apple reduced its revenue projections for the first quarter due to the coronavirus’s impact on production. The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- February 19: Adidas sees an 85% drop in business in China due to COVID-19. Adidas joins other American companies such as Apple and Starbucks who saw sales drop due to COVID-19. Financial Times Quartz
- February 25: The World Health Organization said the coronavirus is not a pandemic yet, but there is a possibility for it to become one if more measures are not taken to limit the spread of the virus. BBC NBC News
- February 25: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said China’s censorship of information put the world at risk. HHS Secretary Alex Azar also said that China had not been forthcoming with information about the virus. ABC News The Hill
- March 2: OPEC officials and Russia plan to meet to discuss oil cuts. Panic from the coronavirus led to a 14 percent drop in oil prices. Al Jazeera The New York Times
- March 11: The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. There are more than 118,000 confirmed cases in 114 countries with 4,291 deaths. CNNFrance24The Wall Street Journal
- March 18: The UN International Labor Organization (ILO) announced that over 24 million people could lose their jobs due to the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. DW
- March 23: Multiple nations begin utilizing citizens’ private information to collect data on potentially infected persons. Countries including South Korea, Italy, and Israel have begun using cellular location data to track people who have come in contact with infected persons. The New York Times The Washington Post
- March 23: The World Health Organization (WHO) announced the acceleration of the coronavirus pandemic with over 300,000 confirmed cases worldwide. BBC CNBC
- March 25: United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres issued a $2 billion appeal to help states that are vulnerable and war-torn in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and South America to help manage the virus. Associated Press Global News VOA News
- March 28: China and Russia engage in disinformation campaigns to provoke doubts about the United States’ handling of the virus pandemic and deflect from internal failures. The New York Times
The Americas
President Nicholas Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaido continued their stand-off in Venezuela. The United States remained steadfast in support of Guaido recognizing him as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. Late in the quarter, the United States charged Maduro with narco-terrorism and proposed an interim government without Maduro or Guaido serving in leadership until elections can be held. Elsewhere, cartel violence continued in Mexico as the United States saw an increase in narcotics trafficking along its southern border and encouraged further cooperation with the Mexican government to combat the problem.
Mike Vigil, Former Chief of International Operations, DEA
“The indictment of Nicolas Maduro and some of his closest allies was a positive thing and advances the principles of the rule of law. They have literally transformed Venezuela into a narco-state. In most countries it is the criminals who commit the crimes. In Venezuela, it is the state that engages in illegal activities.”
Mike J. Fisher, Former Chief, U.S. Border Patrol
“Given the current worldwide Covid-19 crisis and law enforcement personnel taking on additional duties outside of their typical patrol duties, it is not surprising to witness the criminal exploitation along the U.S. border. With increases in narcotics trafficking along the border, the U.S. military is again assisting law enforcement efforts to stem the flow of illicit contraband during this challenging time.”
TRENDING: Mexico: Trouble with Cartels Remains as Extradition Efforts Increase
- January 30: Three inmates suspected of working for drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman escaped a Mexico City prison with the assistance of three prison guards. The three inmates were to be extradited to the United States. BBC Reuters
- February 4: Four armed attackers killed nine people, including children as young as 12, in an attack on an arcade in Uruapan used by the Los Viagra gang to sell drugs. The gunmen are suspected members of the rival Jalisco New Generation cartel with the two groups having repeatedly attacked each other in the past. BBC Reuters
- February 25: Mexico has extradited at least 30 suspects to the United States this quarter after U.S. President Donald Trump pressured the Mexican government to step up its fight against organized crime. In 2019, a total of 58 suspects were extradited to the United States, according to Mexico’s attorney general office. The New York Times
TRENDING: Venezuela: Tension with the United States and Stand-Off Between Maduro and Guaido Continues
- January 3: Congress splits power between Juan Guaido and a rival after Nicholas Maduro’s allies block Guaido supporters from voting. Reuters Associated Press
- January 6: The Lima Group fully backed the re-election of Juan Guaido as head of the Venezualan Congress after the harassment of legislators who were blocked from entering a special session of the National Assembly to elect a substitute leader of congress, Luis Parra. Buenos Aires Times NBC News
- January 7: Juan Guaido was sworn in as head of the National Assembly despite pro-Maduro competition. Al Jazeera Bloomberg DW France 24
- January 13: The United States imposed sanctions on legislators “who, at the bidding of Maduro, attempted to block the democratic process in Venezuela,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated. Reuters
- January 20: Opposition leader Juan Guaido defied a travel ban and met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Colombia. "The world must continue to support the Venezuelan people's effort to restore their democracy and put an end to Maduro's tyranny,” Pompeo said after the meeting. Al Jazeera BBC DW
- January 22: Venezuela’s intelligence service searched the offices of opposition leader Juan Guaido. "We have just confirmed that Sebin officers are inside the office of president Guaido," one legislator told reporters. Al Jazeera
- February 12: Juan Guaido was met by protestors on Tuesday after he arrived home from his world tour. Protestors, who support president Nicolas Maduro, confronted Guaido by grabbing and shoving him at the airport outside the capitol. BBCNPR
- February 16: President Nicolás Maduro ordered drills by Venezuela’s armed forces and civilian militias in response to pressure by opposition to remove him from power. The army deployed missile launchers, anti-aircraft batteries, and radars in the streets. There are no indications that the United States has plans for military intervention. Military.com TIME
- February 20: Military police raided a home in Caracas that belonged to Juan Guaido’s uncle, Juan Jose Marquez. Marquez was arrested by police on accusations of transporting explosives after he returned home with Guaido a week ago. Associated Press VOA News
- March 10: Juan Guaido led an anti-government protest on Tuesday in which security forces responded by firing tear gas. Associated Press The New York Times The Washington Times
- March 26: United States Attorney General William Barr announced the United States has charged President Nicolas Maduro and other senior officials with ‘narco-terrorism.’ BBC The New York Times The Washington Post
- April 1: If Nicholas Maduro agrees to step aside and allow an interim government to lead until elections can be held. The interim government would be led jointly by supporters of both Maduro and his main opponent Juan Guaidó, but not by either man directly. The Guardian The New York Times The Washington Post
- April 3: US announces expanded military presence in the Caribbean under the auspices of an increased focus on ‘counternarcotics operations’. Defense Secretary Mark Esper published a list of military assets that would be deployed to the region, which includes Navy destroyers, Coast Guard cutters, Navy littoral combat ships, helicopters, Navy P-8 patrol aircraft, along with Air Force E-3 AWACS and E-8 JSTARS which are equipped to carry out airborne surveillance, control, and communications. Miami Herald Miami Herald
Join The Cipher Brief all this week for a look at first quarter trends around the globe
The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report April 2020 is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer.
