As the Trump Administration marks 100 days in office, there have been shuffles in the National Security Council, a strike in Syria, tough talk on North Korea, and plans for a controversial travel ban. What did the Trump team get right? And what was off the mark? The Cipher Brief asked a group of its Network experts for their thoughts.
The Cipher Brief: What did the Trump Administration get right?
Retired General Michael Hayden, former Director, CIA and NSA: What he got right was picking a great national security team. [It’s] not just great for a New York real estate developer. [It’s] just great.
Retired Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff: [What he got right was] an increasing understanding that national security policy is far more complex than nationalist, populist, and isolationist rhetoric on the campaign trail. Although their external messaging is still politically defensive, the Administration seems — to their credit — to have internally admitted that the world looks completely different from the vantage point of the White House Situation Room table. They now have access to the best intelligence, much better information regarding our limitations, a better understanding of international law, a more global view, and recognition of the sacred trust that goes along with commitment of young Americans into harm’s way.
John McLaughlin, former Acting Director, CIA: The most important thing the Administration got right on national security policy is to realize so quickly where it was wrong. As reality imposed itself on the President, he sensibly backed away from many of his stands that were simply untenable, no matter how appealing they were electorally. In a sense, this was predictable for anyone who has struggled with national security complexities at this level. So it was no surprise to see earlier judgments thrown overboard, such as the obsolescence of NATO, accusations of Chinese currency manipulation, skepticism about the “One China” policy, plans to withdraw from NAFTA, and hints that it would be fine for Japan and South Korea to develop nuclear weapons.
The President deserves credit for putting together a team of foreign policy professionals which, though still not complete, seems to have gained his confidence and attention – and some traction on formulating security policy. The punishing cruise missile response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons was laudable and measured, but also neither difficult nor risky and lacking signals about what constitutes a broader policy toward that conflict.
Retired Army Lieutenant General Guy Swan: Perhaps the most significant and positive accomplishment of the new Trump Administration in the national security arena has been its assembling of a first-rate national security team, both in the White House and its other executive departments.
I have served with National Security Advisor Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly. Both of these individuals are superb professionals who bring competence, confidence, and the respect of the broader national security apparatus. Likewise, Secretary of Defense James Mattis is a professional and a patriot who brings a wealth of experience to the Department of Defense.
All these leaders – and a number of others, like retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg at the National Security Council – understand their roles and in my view, are able to give unvarnished advice and counsel to President Trump.
Coupled with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, these gentlemen give President Trump one of the strongest national security teams in many years.
Retired General Jack Keane, former Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army: The world has a way of coming to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and it doesn’t come in a predictable fashion. We’ve seen that happen with this president: dealing with the North Korean ballistic missile tests, the Iranians illegally test-firing a ballistic missile, and the Syrians using chemical weapons. These are all major events that occurred with little warning.
This has forced the President and his national security team to adapt very quickly, and my assessment of their reaction is this: the United States under President Trump has returned to its historical and traditional role as the world’s global leader promoting stability and security – the byproduct of which is economic prosperity. They have spent the first weeks of their Administration reassuring allies that the United States is assuming this leadership role once again. That, without a doubt, is the major sea change from Barack Obama’s policy of strategic patience (translation: do nothing).
If you talk to an ally in the world, they’ll tell you that America’s back. I have been talking to them, and they tell me that they are reassured.
The Cipher Brief: What did the Trump Administration get wrong?
Hayden: [What Trump got] not so right is the relationship of the National Security team to his [Trump’s] actual decision-making, particularly a broad strategic vision of the world. It's a work in progress, but I have some confidence based upon the talents of National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster.
Winnefeld: [What Trump did got wrong was a] failure to hitch a coherent policy framework to a mature communications process, a basic misunderstanding of the North Korea problem, and a staggering ignorance of the importance of immigration to what makes America great.
McLaughlin: Things they got wrong? Though maybe too early, it’s not yet possible to discern a strategic view of national security. More specifically, there is a long list of non-forced errors that could easily have been avoided with just a bit more consultation or care: the travel bans that stumbled in the courts; Trump’s testy exchange with the Australian Prime Minister; his charge that one of Britain’s intelligence services had helped President Obama “wiretap” him; his proposal to cut the State Department budget by more than a third while increasing defense spending by an amount that exceeds that entire State Department allotment. And hanging menacingly over all of this are the unresolved questions about the relationship of Trump, his family, and campaign associates with Russia. Ultimately there may be no “there” there, but it is not enough for the President to simply dismiss it as a “hoax.” Until resolved by one or all of the three investigations underway – or by an independent inquiry if they fail – this will sit there like a pin-pulled grenade, inspiring suspicion and conspiracy theories that will distract the Administration and the media from key national security issues.
Swan: Not unlike earlier presidential administrations, this one has been slow in developing a coherent national security strategy, although I am confident this will develop in short order. While the armed response to Syria's use of chemical weapons was necessary, and ratcheting up pressure on North Korea is essential, there is yet to emerge a true "Trump Doctrine" to guide future foreign and national security policy. This effort is underway, but allies and adversaries are still waiting and watching.
Keane: I can’t find anything there. I give them pretty high marks. I’m not sure I would have made the phone call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to congratulate him after his victory in Turkey’s constitutional referendum this month. But in my association with President Trump, I’ve found that his interpersonal skills are very high – much more than most people — and he reads people very well; he trusts his own judgment about that. He starts a relationship with a country based on his personal relationship with the leader. There’s no doubt that Turkey is drifting towards dictatorship, but probably in Trump’s mind, he wants to meet with this guy, find out what’s driving him, and see if we have some common interests and common goals that we can work on together for the benefit of both countries. Turkey is a NATO ally, so you can see the reason he made this phone call.
Pam Benson is managing editor of The Cipher Brief, and Leone Lakhani (@LeoneLakhani) is an executive producer and reporter.
