Conventional wisdom among Western officials indicated ISIS was primarily interested in gaining territory for its caliphate or Islamic state. Big bold attacks against Western targets were the hallmark of al Qaeda. But the coordinated, multiple attacks by at least eight terrorists in Paris this weekend, as well as the suicide bombings in Beirut on Thursday and the destruction of the Russian passenger jet flying over the Sinai two weeks ago, appears to have turned that wisdom on its head.
There is still a great deal to be learned about exactly what happened in all three incidences, but it seems apparent that ISIS played a key role, whether directly or indirectly. It could be a game changer, raising the stakes in the battle against ISIS as the group becomes a more direct threat to the West.
The Paris attacks are dominating the discussion of world leaders as they meet at the previously-scheduled Group of 20 economic talks in Turkey. ISIS claimed responsibility for the near-simultaneous strikes, hailing them as the “first of the storm.”
And there is a new sense of urgency as the U.S., Russia and other regional leaders gather in Vienna to try to find a solution to the nearly five-year conflict in Syria where ISIS bases its leadership and controls vast stretches of territory.
Just last week, before the Paris attacks, U.S. President Barack Obama told ABC News that ISIS was not gaining strength and that “we have contained them,” explaining that ISIS has not gained ground in Iraq and Syria. That declaration rings hollow now as the U.S. and the West reassess their strategy against the terrorist group.
Former CIA Director Michael Hayden, who is a member of The Cipher Brief network, says the Obama Administration underestimated the terrorist group. “ISIS' ambition, sophistication and geographic reach have grown faster than expected,” Hayden said.
Last month, Obama announced he was sending about 50 Special Operations Forces (SOF) to Syria to assist local forces fighting ISIS. And the U.S. has recently intensified its attacks against ISIS militants. On Friday, a U.S drone strike is believed to have killed Abu Nabil al-Anbari, the leader of ISIS in Libya. Another strike last week appears to have eliminated Mohammed Emwazi, otherwise know as “Jihad John,” the British citizen who joined ISIS and is responsible for the executions of a number of Western hostages—brutal killings that were videotaped and distributed on the Internet. U.S. warplanes are deployed at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey to provide air support for rebel and Kurdish fighters on the ground. The U.S. also has 3,500 troops in Iraq to help support the Iraqi military and other groups fighting the Islamic militants, but the American forces are not involved in combat missions.
Hayden, a retired Air Force General, says the U.S. must up its game on both defense and offense. “Our efforts have been under-resourced and over-regulated. Our airpower more resembles a fine Irish mist than a thunderstorm.”
The Paris attacks will increase pressure for the U.S. to mount a more aggressive response to ISIS. Some of the options that have been on the table:
- Increasing the number of U.S. SOF working with Syrian rebels, Iraqi military units and Kurdish forces in both Syria and Iraq
- Creating a no fly zone along the Turkish/Syrian border
- Focusing more attention on Libya, Egypt and Yemen where ISIS affiliates appear to be gaining strength
- Stopping the flow of foreign fighters into the region
- Countering the ISIS message on social media that helps recruit young, disenchanted Muslims
Now is the time for solutions. But they probably won’t be as quick and easy as some people, including U.S. Presidential candidates, seem to suggest. It could take a generation, maybe more, according to one of the CIA’s top former analysts and Cipher Brief contributor, Carmen Medina. “There are no quick solutions and there may be no ‘solution’ as we think of it,” she writes. She went on to say, “This is one of those classic problems in human society for which the passage of time and the change of generations offer the only hope for solutions.”
Pam Benson is the Managing Editor for News at The Cipher Brief.
