The 1990s Yugoslav wars disintegrated a nation and created a fractured Balkans that continues to deal with ethnic strife and political instability. The wars also opened the door for the development of Islamic extremist ideologies.
The former Yugoslav region has a history of moderate Islam. But during the communist era, many official Islamic governance bodies were shut down or scaled back. With the collapse of communism and subsequent opening of religious practice in the early 90s, institutions were largely incapable of providing adequate oversight of religious affairs. “They [religious institutions] have drawn fierce criticism for being slow to react to extremism and apparently failing to tackle radicalization and recruitment by violent jihadi groups,” explains Anita Rice, Senior Editor at the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN).
In addition to an institutional failure following the end of communism, the 1990s wars imported a form of radical Islam that the region had never seen before. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, the Saudis introduced the ultra-conservative Salafi movement. Tanja Dramac Jiries, an expert in foreign fighter recruitment and radicalization in the Balkans, explains, “The Salafi movement […] was ‘imported’ by Saudi-sponsored mujahedeen fighters mobilized to fight alongside the drastically under-armed and under-funded Muslim Bosniaks against both Serbs and Croats.” Extremist communities have remained since, says Jiries.
A mix of continued ethnic and political instability and newly formed radical Islamist communities in the Balkans has created fertile ground for Islamic State infiltration. At least 877 nationals from the Balkans have travelled to Syria and Iraq since 2012, according to BIRN, with a large portion coming from Bosnia and Kosovo. Foreign policy and security analyst Adrian Shtuni puts that number at around 1,000.
Shtuni, who is an expert on violent extremism in the Balkans and originally from Albania, says what is more troubling than the number of Balkans nationals heading to the Middle East is the number of those returning home. More than 40 percent have returned home so far, he says. This poses a national security threat to the Balkans, the greater European continent, and the United States.
Returnee fighters and other radicalized nationals wreak havoc in the region and act as ISIS recruiters. In April of last year, an alleged radical Islamist attacked a police station in the eastern Bosnian town Zvornik, killing one police officer and wounding two others. In November, a gunman killed two Bosnian soldiers and wounded another near the military barracks around Rajlovac. People who knew the attacker said he had recently started practicing Salafism.
These isolated incidents, while not threatening on a grand-scale, should be a warning sign: radicalized Balkans citizens are engaging in violent acts and could bring that violence to western Europe. Albania’s former Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu told The Cipher Brief, “Most of them [returnee fighters] have passports which give them access to the EU because of visa liberalization and the Schengen agreement, extending the geography of the threat.”
In addition, the Balkans connects the Middle East – and ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq – to mainland Europe. The region is “a bridge for ISIS funding, supplies, and recruitment, and for other radical terrorist groups” says Mediu. An increased number of ISIS sympathizers in the Balkans means that bridge could be easier for terrorists to cross.
Although an ISIS attack on the U.S. is unlikely – at least for now – the spread of jihadism westward puts the U.S. at increased risk, especially during a time when America’s historic counterweight – the European Union – is splintering. The growth of Islamic extremism in the Balkans and further destabilization of the region means those states that are not already incorporated into the EU will likely have a harder time justifying why the EU should accept them as members. A weakened EU and unstable, non-EU Balkans would be welcomed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other regional players who seek to diminish American power and influence in the world.
And any U.S. business interests in both the Balkans and western Europe would also be negatively affected by an increasingly weak and volatile region.
But as Mediu says, “When it comes to the Balkans, Europe and the U.S. are distracted by other issues – the attacks in France and other western states, the ongoing global economic instability, the war in Syria, and the flood of refugees and migrants into Europe. This has reduced support and understanding for the gravity of the terrorist threat in the Balkans.”
The U.S. and the EU would benefit from a closer look at the legacy of the Yugoslav wars – ethnic tensions, political instability, and radical Islam – and the threat a force like ISIS poses to an inherently vulnerable region.
