DEEP DIVE — The protests and police crackdowns convulsing the nation of Georgia represent more than one more global conflict zone; they are also the latest frontline in Vladimir Putin‘s efforts to extend Russian influence, and reimpose Moscow’s authority on nations that were once part of the Soviet Empire.
The crisis in Georgia pits a pro-Russian government against an opposition seeking closer ties with the West.
For ten nights running, thousands of Georgians have protested in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi, after the ruling Georgian Dream party suspended talks on the country’s accession to the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhdize announced the move on November 28, triggering the backlash and reigniting anger over alleged fraud in Georgia’s recent parliamentary elections. In recent days the protests have spread to other parts of the country.
“What we're seeing on the streets of Georgia is the culmination of frustration at the ruling party's turn away from the democratic West, and toward Russian-style authoritarianism,” Ian Kelly, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Georgia from 2015 to 2018, told The Cipher Brief. “The immediate trigger for the protests was the suspension of talks with the EU, but it was preceded by many months of anti-Western rhetoric, anti-democratic legislation, and more recently fraudulent elections.”
Security forces have used water cannon, pepper spray and tear gas against the demonstrators. The authorities also raided opposition parties’ offices and non-government organizations; on Wednesday, when Nika Gvaramia, an opposition leader, asked to be let into one of those offices to observe the operation, masked security agents dragged Gvaramia away and arrested him.
Several other opposition leaders have been arrested, along with more than 500 protestors, many of whom have been charged with “petty hooliganism.” The Georgian office of Transparency International, a human rights group, said several protesters had been hurt after their detention. “Some detainees are currently being held in medical facilities, suffering from extensive bruises and facial injuries, including fractured noses and jaws,” the group said.
“The events in Georgia are incredibly sad and disturbing,” said Kenneth Yalowitz, another former U.S. Ambassador to Georgia who also served as Ambassador to Belarus as that country slid into an authoritarian dictatorship in the early 1990s.
“I'm not saying that Georgia is Belarus, but I am saying that there are many things going on now which are extremely troubling and resemble what I saw in Belarus,” Amb. Yalowitz told The Cipher Brief. “What we're seeing now is the beginnings of authoritarianism.”
All of which helps explain why this small nation at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, with a population just under 4 million, holds such outsized importance. Many experts believe that what happens in Georgia – much like what happens in Ukraine – will go a long way to determining how far Putin‘s aggression can go.
The catalysts of a crisis
The current turmoil in Georgia involves a fundamental wedge between Moscow and the West — specifically, the nation’s push for membership in the EU.
The ruling party’s November 28 decision suspended Georgia’s EU accession talks for four years. Prime Minister Kobakhidze said the move was a response to the European Parliament’s rejection of the results of Georgia’s October parliamentary election, in which his Georgian Dream party declared victory. Georgian Dream claimed 54% of the vote, but opposition parties and independent observers alleged fraud and Russian interference. The European Parliament said the elections “do not serve as a reliable representation of the will of the Georgian people,” and called for the vote to be re-run under international supervision.
Georgian Dream accused the EU of trying to “organize a revolution in the country,” and said the EU membership negotiations would be put off until the end of 2028. "We are a proud and self-respecting nation with a long history,” Kobakhidze said. “Therefore, it is categorically unacceptable for us to consider integration into the European Union as a favor that the European Union should grant us."
Georgia’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, an opposition leader who favors accession to the EU, has encouraged the protests. “We want our European destiny to be returned to us,” she told France’s Inter Radio.
But the Prime Minister has held firm, vowing “no negotiations” with the opposition.
“I remind everyone that there will be no revolution in Georgia,” he said, alleging that the protests had been “funded from abroad.”
There were similar frictions – and large-scale protests – earlier this year, also involving a tug-of-war between Russia and the West. In May, the ruling party introduced a law which branded any media and civil society organizations that received more than 20% of funding from the West as “bearing the interests of a foreign power.” That was widely seen as a measure inspired by Russia; the opposition took to the streets in large numbers, and the EU cut economic support to Georgia over the law.
President Zourabichvili said the current demonstrations are a protest against what she calls a “Russian special operation,” referring to Russia’s interference in the Georgian elections, and may escalate because the ruling party has blocked political dialogue.
“When you close one by one all the possibilities, what you are doing in fact is increasing the frustration of the people that are on the streets,” Zourabichvili told Bloomberg Television. “And everyone knows that increased frustration can then lead to anything.”
The Kremlin’s playbook – in Georgia and Ukraine
The Georgian people have a strong affinity for the West; nearly 80% of Georgians back European integration, according to a December 2023 poll conducted by the American non-profit National Democratic Institute. Many Georgians also hold negative views of Russia, which has occupied 20% of Georgia since its brief August 2008 invasion of the country.
In the current crisis, Russia has denied any effort to impose its will on Georgia. “Everything that is happening in Georgia is its internal business,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters on Monday. “We have not interfered and do not mean to interfere in these processes.”
Many Georgians and outside experts would disagree, and see the hand of Moscow in what has happened in their country.
For one thing, the response of the Georgian security services appears similar to a Russian approach: the deployment of masked security agents, charges of “hooliganism,” and allegations of foreign backing for the demonstrators are all measures that would be familiar to opposition figures in Russia. And Georgia’s foreign agent law – the one passed by the ruling party in May – was widely seen as a replica of a 2012 Russian law on “foreign agents” that the Kremlin has used to crack down on dissent.
“The Russian fingerprints are all over this,” Paul Kolbe, a former senior CIA Intelligence Officer, told The Cipher Brief after the measure was passed. “And the Georgian people, being smart, they get that. They see it for the threat it is. They understand what a creeping coup looks like.”
Meanwhile, the ruling party, Georgian Dream, was founded by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the richest man in the country, who made billions in Russia in the 1990s. While the party initially favored a more pro-Western platform, Ivanishvili – who remains the most influential political figure in Georgia – has been accused by the opposition of too-close ties to the Kremlin.
Perhaps no outsiders understand the developments in Georgia better than the people of Ukraine. Like Ukraine, Georgia won its independence from Moscow in 1991, and both countries have suffered repeatedly since then from Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made bogus claims to chunks of both nations’ territory — and in both cases, used military force to pursue those claims.
Putin’s declared goal for his “special military operation” against Ukraine in 2022 was to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine to prevent what he called a “genocide” against Russians in eastern Ukraine. In 2014, Putin said the Russian occupation of Crimea was needed “to ensure proper conditions for the people of Crimea to be able to freely express their will.” Putin likewise justified his 2008 invasion of Georgia to prevent what he said was “genocide” against the people of the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
“This is one piece of a long-running, systematic, quite intentional program for Russia to reestablish control over what it calls its ‘near abroad,’” Kolbe said. “For Russia, the idea of Georgia – somewhat like Ukraine – as independent, free, prosperous and democratic, sitting right on their borders, is very threatening. So they have for decades engaged in deep active measures to destabilize Georgia, to get rid of those politicians and leaders that were not aligned with Russian interests and to promote their own.”
Some Ukrainians have offered to help Georgia, even as they wage their own war of resistance against Russia. In recent days, Ukrainians who participated in their country’s 2014 Maidan Revolution against Russian influence have published messages of support to Georgian protestors on social networks, and offered advice about building barriers against riot police.
On Thursday, the Ukrainian government showed its solidarity: President Volodymyr Zelensky approved sanctions against officials of Georgia’s ruling party. The measures targeted Prime Minister Kobakhidze, Georgian Dream’s founder Ivanishvili, and 17 other officials and businessmen.
“These sanctions target the part of the Georgian government that is surrendering Georgia to Putin,” Zelensky said in a video statement. “We must not lose anyone in this region — neither Georgia, nor Moldova, nor Ukraine. We must stand united in defending ourselves against Moscow.”
The response from the West
The U.S. has criticized Georgian Dream’s moves and on November 30 announced that it was suspending its “strategic partnership” with Georgia.
The latest developments show that “Georgian Dream has rejected the opportunity for closer ties with Europe and made Georgia more vulnerable to the Kremlin,” State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said. “We reiterate our call to the Georgian government to return to its Euro-Atlantic path, transparently investigate all parliamentary election irregularities, and repeal anti-democratic laws that limit freedoms of assembly and expression.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken also condemned the crackdown on protesters and opposition and hinted that new sanctions may be in the works.
“Those who undermine democratic processes or institutions in Georgia – including those who suppress Georgian citizens’ right to freedom of peaceful assembly and expression – will be held to account,” Blinken said. “In addition to continuing our previously announced comprehensive review of bilateral cooperation, the United States is now preparing to use the tools at our disposal, including additional sanctions.”
EU leaders have also criticized the Georgian government. “The EU stands with the Georgian people and their choice for a European future,” Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas and Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said in a joint statement. “The door to the EU remains open and the return of Georgia to the European values and the EU accession path is in the hands of the Georgian leadership.”
Some experts believe the U.S. should act more forcefully – and quickly – in sanctioning the pro-Russian elements in Georgia.
“What's most important is for the U.S. to stand firmly on the side of those who are demanding a return to a pro-Western democratic path,” Amb. Kelly said. “It can do that by imposing sanctions against those who have violated human rights and taken the country in a different direction, and by encouraging new, free and fair elections.”
David Kramer, the Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute and an expert on Russia and Ukraine, echoed Amb. Kelly’s view.
“The U.S. government should immediately sanction Ivanishvili, Kobakhidze and that whole circle of people,” Kramer told The Cipher Brief. “Targeted individual sanctions are what we should have done months ago but especially right now. Otherwise we are on the verge of losing Georgia. The country is at a tipping point.”
The way forward
Yalowitz, the former U.S. Ambassador to both Georgia and Belarus, says he sees two possible pathways for Georgia in the days to come.
“One is the one I’m most afraid of,” he said. “And that is a continuation of the violence, fighting in the street and eventually, people getting killed. That is the road that they seem to be heading down with mass arrests of political prisoners, gassing people, things that were just unimaginable when I was in Georgia.”
“The other way,” Amb. Yalowitz said, “is if the government decides to open up a dialogue with the opposition, with the president, rescinds those obnoxious laws, and also agrees to respect the Constitution, and at least open talks with the European Union on how to get back on the pathway to membership.”
Many western officials who have served in Georgia note the country’s long standing as a paragon of reform and democratic principles among former Soviet republics – qualities that led to warm relations with successive U.S. administrations. Over the past three decades, the U.S. has provided $6.2 billion in assistance to back Georgia’s economy and democratic institutions. Among non-NATO nations, Georgia was also the highest per-capita contributor of troops to the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.
More recently, Georgia has shifted away from the West. Earlier this year, the government signed a strategic partnership agreement with China and committed Georgia to China’s Belt and Road initiative. After Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter accident on May 19, the Prime Minister delivered his public condolences and later traveled to Tehran to attend his funeral, together with leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.
“The shame is seeing Georgia moving away from everything that all of us witnessed over 20 to 25 years, the desire to throw off the Soviet past and to integrate into the European Union,” Amb. Yalowitz said. “That's the tragedy that's unfolding – that all that may not happen now.”
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief.
