EXPERT INTERVIEW — Other than Ukraine itself, few European countries have been as directly impacted by Russia’s 2022 invasion as Poland. From the beginning, Poland, which shares a roughly 340-mile-long border with Ukraine, has taken in far more refugees than any other nation; overall, nearly nine million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland, and three years into the war, roughly one million refugees remain. More recently, Poland has been among the many European countries buffeted by the U.S. shift to greater engagement with Russia, and its willingness to meet with Kremlin officials and adopt language and positions that had been anathema to the Biden Administration and its European allies.
The practical implications for Poland have been profound: the government has pledged to boost military spending – despite the fact that it already spends more as a percentage of GDP than any NATO nation (Estonia and the U.S. rank second and third); recently, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk vowed to double the size of the military, including reservists; and he and other Polish officials have suggested that the country consider the positioning of nuclear weapons on Polish soil. Tusk said last month that the combination of a growing threat from Russia and “a profound change of American geopolitics” were forcing Poland’s hand.
“We cannot deny these facts,” Tusk told the parliament. “Today, Poland’s situation, objectively, and Ukraine’s situation, in particular, is more difficult than it was a few months ago, and we must deal with this fact.” He added that “Washington’s much more symmetrical attitude toward Moscow and Kyiv, much more symmetrical than we had become accustomed to, is a little different — I am also putting it mildly — from what we feel in Poland or in Europe.”
Tusk and other Polish officials have alluded to Poland’s long history as a nation threatened by powerful neighbors. Over the last two centuries, Poland has faced existential threats from the Russian empire, Nazi Germany, and then the Soviet Union. More recently, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has made derisive and occasionally provocative statements about Poland.
The Cipher Brief spoke with Jacek Siewiera, who served until recently as Director of Poland’s National Security Bureau. While he highlighted and praised the long-standing and close relationship between Poland and the United States, he warned that "from the Polish perspective, we believe that a huge level of caution is necessary when it comes to any form of deals, agreements or even statements of mutual understanding when it comes to Russia."
Siewiera spoke with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can watch the full interview on the Cipher Brief YouTube channel.
THE CONTEXT
- The European Commission reported that at the end of February 2025, 994,790 refugees from Ukraine under EU temporary protection were living in Poland.
- The Polish government reported in November 2024 that it had given the equivalent of 4.91% of its GDP in direct assistance to Ukraine. Officials estimate Poland has given more than $4 billion in direct military assistance to Kyiv since 2022.
- Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said in February 2025 that Warsaw is preparing its 46th military aid package to Ukraine, worth over €200 million ($210 million). He added that Poland has trained around 28,000 of the 80-90,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained in the EU.
- The U.S. military announced this week that it is withdrawing forces and equipment from the Jasionka logistics hub to other sites in Poland. Most of the military aid bound for Ukraine passes through Jasionka. Work at the facility “will continue under Poland and NATO leadership,” according to U.S. Army Europe-Africa head Gen. Christopher Donahue.
- U.S.-Poland military cooperation has remained strong; there are around 10,000 U.S. soldiers stationed in Poland, and Washington and Warsaw regularly conduct joint military exercises. There is some concern in Poland that the Pentagon is reportedly considering a proposal to withdraw as many as 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe — mainly from Romania and Poland.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament in March that Warsaw is seeking access to nuclear weapons (in reference to France’s offer to protect Poland under the French nuclear umbrella) and that every Polish man should undergo military training to bolster its military amid threats from Russia.
The Cipher Brief: What has the response been like in your country to the recent changes that have come from the U.S.?
Siewiera: Poland is a country which has very specific, and I would even say, extraordinary ties with the United States. These ties were very significant and strong before the [Ukraine] war started because of our military spending, because of our membership in NATO and the commitment to NATO transatlantic relations. These relations became even more serious and deeper during the war. American troops were deployed in Poland before the war started. They were well informed, they were prepared, they were acting very swiftly in the theater of the Eastern flank. So the United States proved beyond any doubt its very deep commitment in the relationship with Poland.
Having said that, it's also important to express that now, we see another chapter of this relationship with a very dynamic pace of changes, which is sometimes very surprising.
The Cipher Brief: Poland has had a very difficult relationship with its neighbor to the east, Russia. When the President of the United States is engaged in the way he is with the Kremlin, what is the biggest concern for Poland?
Siewiera: It's a moment in which I hope we observe the situation in which the president of the biggest allied country, our strategic partner, is trying to find a way as a businessman to navigate the opposing interests of Imperial Russia and America, as a great player on the global scene. And of course, as with any negotiations, it should be started with opening some phase in which you build the minimal level of, maybe not trust, but communication. I hope that we are witnessing this, instead of any other suspicion.
But for sure, what I see from the side of President [Vladimir] Putin is a behavior which is not aligned with any form of peace-seeking efforts or efforts targeted to achieve long-lasting peace in Ukraine. It's much more about outplaying and prolonging the conflict as long as possible, to strengthen the position of Russia in this prolonged war because this plays in favor and in the advantage of Russians.
The Cipher Brief: And in terms of the American position, the U.S. voted with Russia, with Belarus, and just a few other countries at the United Nations, against calling Russia's actions in Ukraine an aggression. And the president has criticized President Zelensky. It also seems that these talks are not just about Ukraine now. They are also about a broader U.S. commercial engagement with Russia. For Poland right now, how much of a worry is that?
Siewiera: Many of those aspects which you mentioned concern us. But at the end of the day, we see also that after three months [of the Trump administration], Europe has the biggest investments in their defense spending. [Poland’s] President Andrzej Duda announced 3% of GDP [defense] spending two years ago, and many of the actors on the scene, particularly in Europe, were saying that it's impossible; we are not even reaching 2%. Now this has changed. I read recently a statement that President Donald Trump has done more for European defense than anyone – it is partially true because he forced Europeans to spend money on weapons. The question is if it's not too late.
On the other hand, the situations which you mentioned are concerning. From the Polish perspective, we believe that a huge level of caution is necessary when it comes to any form of deals, agreements or even statements of mutual understanding when it comes to Russia, because they don't see peace and democratic rules as an unchangeable value of our world.
The Cipher Brief: Let's come to the Polish response. You mentioned the defense spending across Europe that has really been such a surprise. I saw a headline recently which was about Poland's spending, building up the army and so forth. The headline was “Poland Gears Up for War.” To what extent has the mood changed in your country?
Siewiera: This mood hasn't changed much since the beginning of war. Now it's just getting more tangible and more precise when it comes to the level of commitment which we have already taken. From our perspective, defense spending which was crafted by our government and the president at the level of 3.7%, and now to 4.7% with a projection that we can exceed even the level of 5 % in upcoming years – this is something we perceive not as preparedness for war. We perceive it, and we want to create the message for the perception of our neighbors, that we will be ready for any form of confrontation. But we want to avoid it. As far as we invest in our defense, we believe that we are taking every necessary step to avoid the war. And that's the reason, that's the justification, that's the purpose of our efforts. Particularly when it comes to defense.
But in my case, the biggest focus is centered on the investments and development of the technologies which are dedicated for survival of human resources. Because we see from the war in Ukraine — from the way the civilian population is treated and from the problems which they have with human resources on the frontline — countries in a longer conflict will always struggle to be victorious with the imperial neighbor, which is what Russia is. If we don't focus on the technology which will improve the protection and survival of the human resources on the frontline, we will at the end of the day in a prolonged conflict, which Russia prefers, have a huge problem taking the advantage and appropriate deterrence before this war will start.
The Cipher Brief: Are you talking about support for the forces in Ukraine or for civilians?
Siewiera: We're talking about the full spectrum of activities. One is civil protection systems, which were designed in the late 1980s, and 1990s. Now we have increased and expanded discussion about the civil protection and civil defense systems, which we have to craft and reestablish in Poland. They are systems which are not fully fitted to the reality of war which we see in Ukraine. So one vector of that effort is the civil protection system.
The second is the development of technologies which allow your own forces to be spared when it comes to operations. Drones, for example. As much as you invest in a drone battlefield, you take the advantage over the number of potential aggressors. But it also is highly related to the type of technology which you use. So if you use drones which engage your soldiers in the operation close to the frontline, close to the contact line, this closeness is now described in a matter of kilometers, maybe five kilometers to the contact line. You expose them to the threat of counter-battery fire. But if you invest in the drones and in technology which allows you to use them from a longer distance to set up a drone, get away from it and then use it from a place where it was located previously, you are developing a different approach in which you are trying to spare the life or decrease the level of risk of your operators.
There are plenty of solutions which we have to once again rethink and implement in our doctrine for appropriate usage of our forces, and also in the offensive attitude.
The Cipher Brief: We read almost every day or every week about Russian activities in what we call the “Gray Zone” — things that you don't see, whether it's cyber or cables in the Baltic, and so on. To what extent are you concerned about this, and as national security advisor, how much of your time was taken worrying about this sort of activity?
Siewiera: This form of activities were, I can say quite openly, were full-scale operations for the last two years. We have been exposed to the biggest level of aggression and hostile activity in the cyber domain since late 2022. And since then, the number of attack attempts for physical damage on our side by use of this domain is the highest in our history, and highest in the entirety of Europe. So we are at war in this domain already. And it's not only my opinion. It's the opinion of the cyber domain commanders, it's the opinion of many professionals who are engaged from the side of security services in our theater.
On the cables and asymmetric warfare, it's a sphere of influence of hostile activity which we had on a very serious scale. Baltic states, Nordic states – we all witnessed an increased level of aggression and active hostile activity in the Baltic Sea which cannot be explained or just justified by bad weather circumstances. Sometimes we hear justifications like that, that it's poor training of the crews of the shadow fleet. It's not enough.
The Cipher Brief: How confident are you in Poland's ability to deal with all these things you're talking about?
Siewiera: We believe in three things. One, that if we in Poland will be prepared, we will deter effectively. And we mean it. So we invest in it deeply and very heavily, also with the transformation of the armed forces, civil protection and defense industry. In this third part, we also believe in cooperation with the United States, which is still a strategic ally.
The second thing which we are sure of is that we can be very effective when it comes to deterrence, when it comes to the function of NATO and the way in which NATO can counteract hostile activity from Russia.
And the third thing we believe is that Europe has to understand as a whole, that having expanded our wealth, expanded our borders, we expanded the Schengen zone, we expanded our industries and markets by attaching new members of the European Union, we also have to be aware that the European Union has to rethink how we expand responsibility of defense over the entire Europe. And Europe has to grow up and stand up to the challenge which is now posed by the Russian side, which is posed by the Kremlin and their imperialism. And I think that so far Europe has taken some interesting and very promising steps towards that.
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