OPINION — In March of 2022, 74% of Trump voters favored military aid to Ukraine, according to polling from The Economist. Nearly three years later, only 37% of Trump voters favor military aid to Ukraine.
Why the big drop? Years of Russian propaganda targeting American conservatives and years of neglect of Republicans on the part of the pro-Ukraine community. All too often, the information American conservatives get about Ukraine is inaccurate information.
Our polling shows that we can bring some conservatives back by telling them the truth. We can increase the level of support for Ukraine by as much as 20 percentage points – from 37% to 57% — by sticking to truthful, poll-tested messaging.
Quite literally, if you tell 100 Republicans this truthful, poll-tested messaging 37 of them will high five you and say, “Right on dude!” and 20 of them say “Yeah, I never thought of it that way. Good points.” That is how it works.
We polled Republicans about the Ukraine aid vote last year. Our polling is a little dated, but still a useful gauge.
The most effective approach involves giving American Christians accurate information about Russia torturing and murdering Ukrainian Christians in occupied Ukraine. Specifically:
According to American Christian leaders, evangelical Christians are being persecuted and tortured by Russian soldiers in the areas of Ukraine that are occupied by Russia. Christians report torture with electrical shocks and being beaten with a baseball bat. Some bodies are too disfigured by torture to be easily identified.
Sixty-three percent of Republican voters and 70% of evangelical Republicans were more likely to support last year’s aid bill when given this information, based on actual incidents of torture and murder. The Russians have shut down every church in occupied Ukraine that is not controlled by the Kremlin. Believers who meet to pray do so under the threat of torture and imprisonment. The Russians have killed 47 faith leaders.
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Last fall I went on two 1500-mile road trips around the Ukrainian front with a documentary film crew collecting the stories of some forty Ukrainian Christians who had been oppressed, tortured and murdered by the Russians. The result is A Faith Under Siege. A short from the documentary, The Pastor of Kherson, is an official selection at two Christian film festivals. Our goal is to have a showing in every church in America.
My 501c4, Ukraine Freedom Action, ran a campaign last year to motivate House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Baptist activist prior to joining Congress, to put the aid bill up for a vote. We ran persuasion campaigns in key districts with messaging about Russia’s oppression of Ukraine’s Christians, visited about 100 Congressional offices and brought in Ukrainian evangelicals to meet with Speaker Johnson. Classified briefings gave Speaker Johnson information about why supporting Ukraine is important to global stability. Our work is also widely credited with giving him an emotional and spiritual connection to Ukraine. Johnson doubled down on his support for Ukraine with a Reagan-like speech last July at the Hudson Institute, including our messaging about Russia’s oppression of Christians.
Unfortunately, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s campaign-style appearance in the swing state of Pennsylvania, held with Harris campaign surrogates just six weeks before the election, killed Johnson’s enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine.
But the messaging to American Christians remains effective. And it is not the only effective messaging.
We presented a series of statements about Ukraine and then asked people if the information made them more or less likely to support aid to Ukraine. The presentation was as follows:
Please read the statements below and after you read each statement please indicate if it makes you more likely or less likely to support Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in the war with Russia, or if it makes no difference to you.
The bill to provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine would authorize the use of more than $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to help pay for military aid, rather than using U.S. taxpayer dollars.
To that statement, 68% of Republican voters said it made them more likely to vote Ukraine aid.
Any peace plan in Ukraine would just give Russia time to re-arm and renew its attack against Ukraine and Europe. Vladimir Putin is already in violation of dozens of peace agreements and treaties with several countries, including the United States. There is no reason to believe he would honor any peace agreement in Ukraine.
66% of Republican voters were more likely to support Ukraine after hearing that.
More than 90,000 reports of rape and sexual abuse by Russian soldiers have been reported since February of 2022. Many of the victims are little boys and little girls.
Here again, the figure was 66%.
If America stops military aid to Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians will be under the control of the Russians who are already persecuting and torturing Evangelical Christians, raping elderly women, and kidnapping Ukrainian children.
For that statement, the number was 60% — again, of Republicans saying it made them more likely to support aid to Ukraine.
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Another series of questions asked for agreement or disagreement with a particular statement about Ukraine and Russia. Again, these all evoked strong support for Ukraine.
Now, please read the statements below and after you read each one, please indicate if you agree or disagree with that statement.
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are coming for America and its allies. These four hostile countries are working together to cause chaos in Ukraine, Israel and much of the rest of the world. The world needs America now more than ever to unite our allies and defend free countries who are under direct attack from our enemies.
81% of Republican voters agreed with that statement.
Vladimir Putin will not be satisfied until he takes over Ukraine and other eastern European countries that were once part of the Soviet Union.
84% agreed with that statement.
Part of the reason Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine is because President Biden showed weakness in pulling out of Afghanistan. If we continue to show weakness by letting Putin have Ukraine, it will embolden Iran, North Korea, and China to invade Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan, bringing World War III to our doorstep.
Here the figure was 81%.
If Ukraine falls, Vladimir Putin will have the resources of Ukraine behind him. Russia will be on the border with nine NATO countries. Putin has said that Russia will invade Poland and Finland next after Russia defeats Ukraine. If Ukraine falls, it will bring World War III closer.
That last statement drew agreement from 77% of Republican voters.
As crazy as today’s political environment may be, it is heartening to see that the truth still works.
This is a long game. It took years of unanswered Russian propaganda for support for Ukraine to fall to 37% among Trump voters. There is not a world where Ukraine will be successful in Washington with the support of just one party. Those communicating on Ukraine’s behalf need to be using poll-tested messaging and stay on those messages.
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