OPINION — Large-scale protests have spread from Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, to cities across the small but strategically crucial country in the South Caucasus. The Georgian people have taken to the streets in response to the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party’s decision to reverse its efforts to join the EU, in direct violation of the country’s constitution. This is taking place in the wake of allegations that GD stole the country’s recent parliamentary elections. The President and many members of parliament have refused to recognize the results, calling the ruling party an “illegitimate” regime dragging the country back into Russia’s orbit.
Georgians from all walks of life have taken to the streets in their cities, towns, and villages, even in regions that GD once dominated. This includes cities such as Gori, which had been home to some of the most substantial support for GD and sits just 20 kilometers from Russian-occupied South Ossetia, meaning that they would be on the front lines of any military action if Russia decides to retaliate.
It is too early to know for sure, but it is entirely plausible that these demonstrations could escalate into a popular revolution reminiscent of the Maidan protests in Ukraine in 2014. It is essential for U.S. policymakers to understand the gravity of these events and their inevitable impact on the broader security of the region.
This is not the first time widespread protests have erupted against the GD regime. In March 2023, GD introduced the “foreign agents” law, a measure requiring non-governmental organizations that receive more than 20 percent of their revenue from abroad to register with the government or face fines. A similar law was passed in Russia in 2012, which the Kremlin used to crack down on civil society and various forms of dissent. Many Georgians saw the parallel and took to the streets then, demanding that the bill be withdrawn. Despite police use of tear gas and water cannons, the protesters were successful. The law did not pass.
In March 2024, GD introduced the bill again. Large-scale protests broke out once more, in numbers not seen since demonstrations against the Soviet Union more than three decades ago. Once again, the protesters faced tear gas, water cannons, and beatings, but they did not give up the fight. This time, however, the controversial “foreign agents” bill passed and was enacted into law.
Then came the pivotal Georgian parliamentary elections, which were held in October 2024. The vote was viewed as a referendum on whether the country would move towards Europe or Russia, and it presented an opportunity to unseat the increasingly authoritarian ruling party. According to the official results, GD won a slim majority, but the pro-European opposition accused GD of rigging the election through “vote buying, double voting, physical violence, and intimidation.” Exit polls conducted by Western organizations were also “dramatically different” from the election results.
President Salome Zourabichvili and many members of parliament refused to accept the outcome and said they would not recognize the government. In a statement to the Georgian media, the President said, “As the only remaining independent institution in this state, I want to say that I do not recognize this election. It cannot be recognized. It would be the same as recognizing Russia’s entry here – Georgian subordination to Russia…I didn’t come to Georgia for [Russian domination]. Our ancestors did not live for this. We will not tolerate this.” She called for protesters to take to the streets.
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As the weeks passed, GD’s pro-Russian rhetoric and policies grew increasingly blatant. This created an extremely tense political environment in a country where more than 80 percent of Georgians say they support EU membership. Given Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, its continued occupation of 20 percent of the country, and ongoing hybrid aggression, most Georgians also despise Russia. According to a recent survey, 79 percent of Georgians “oppose visa-free travel for Russians, Russians registering businesses in Georgia, or Russians buying property in Georgia.”
This all came to a head on November 28, when Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze declared that the government would abandon the country’s pursuit of EU membership “until 2028” and “refuse all EU budget support.” The prime minister’s decision contradicts the Georgian Constitution, which includes a clause enshrining the goal of joining the EU and NATO.
A fresh round of protests erupted immediately. Police crackdowns followed. President Zourabichvili joined the protests and addressed the riot police, her face nearly pressed against their shields. She reminded them that they serve the interests of Georgia and urged them “to think about their country, their children, and the future.” Later that night, the police once again dispersed the protests with beatings, tear gas, pepper spray, and water cannons.
The demonstrations have only grown. There have been resignations across the government, including Irakli Shaishmelashvili, the leader of the Operational Planning Unit of the Interior Ministry’s Special Tasks Department, which has coordinated the police crackdowns on protesters. Giorgi Gabekhadze, a Senior Instructor at the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) of Georgia, also submitted his resignation. Additionally, the Georgian Ambassadors to Lithuania, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, and the U.S. have resigned.
Strikes have been declared, and universities have closed to allow their students to protest. Rights groups have alleged beatings in detention, and journalists and civil society representatives covering the protests have been targeted with violence. The crackdowns have only generated more fury among the Georgian people.
The current wave of protests differs sharply from past movements in the country, which were led by opposition politicians. Georgia’s opposition parties have previously been divided and weak, including in the months leading up to the election in October. Although the election has been deemed illegitimate, it still showcased the opposition’s struggle to garner widespread support, especially in smaller towns and villages where GD performed well. However, Kobakhidze’s recent announcement has triggered an unprecedented change in public sentiment.
These protests have grown beyond a political movement coordinated by any one candidate. Rather than being led by an opposition figure that the general public can rally behind, this is a truly grassroots movement. While President Zourabichvili has played a prominent role in supporting the protesters, she is not at the forefront of this movement; it is the Georgian people themselves.
According to Tinatin Japaridze, an expert on Georgia and analyst at Eurasia Group, the lack of a central leader may ultimately be this movement’s strength. It breaks the previous pattern of Georgian politics, she says, in which a charismatic leader comes to power, disappoints voters, and is ousted.
Japaridze is unsurprised that Kobakhidze’s statement generated such a strong response. It completely contradicts the will of the Georgian people, especially the youth, who have “grown up with [the knowledge] that they are European in their hearts,” she explains. “It’s not about votes or elections for a single leader. [The Georgian people] believe in their future and have every right to reclaim the future they’ve been robbed of.”
GD’s decision to reverse the country’s Euro-Atlantic path represents another miscalculation about what the Georgian people are willing to tolerate. In a country where Russia is the number one enemy, the ruling party’s increasingly pro-Russian rhetoric and policies have pushed the Georgian population to its limit. Returning to business as usual is no longer an option. The ruling party cannot reverse this policy and expect the protests to stop. For all Georgians know, this may be their last chance to act before their country becomes a Russian satellite state. There is no going back for GD.
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The small city of Gori is a perfect example of a former GD stronghold that is now protesting against the ruling party, and for a pro-European future. Gori is located about an hour outside of Tbilisi and only 20 kilometers from Russian-occupied South Ossetia. The city was bombed and occupied by Russia for two weeks during its invasion in 2008, and memories of the war have strongly influenced the community’s political activity. Gori residents overwhelmingly voted for GD in previous elections because the party initially campaigned on the promise to decrease tensions with Russia. To this city, peace remains the most important political issue.
However, the majority of residents still hold unfavorable views of Russia, both for the tragedy of the war and its continued aggression. The villages surrounding Gori are affected by the constant encroachment of the Russian occupation line deeper into Georgian-held territory. Occupying forces sometimes lift the fence and carry it forward during the night, slowly consuming the land of nearby villagers and cutting off their livelihood, which is primarily farming. They will demand that residents abandon their homes or illegally detain them if they approach the boundary line, which sometimes divides their own property. Kidnappings are commonplace in villages close to the occupation line, and Russian forces shot and killed a Georgian man who attempted to visit his village church near Kirbali in November 2023. Although there is an element of Soviet nostalgia in Gori, given that it was the birthplace of the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, a majority of residents still condemns Russia for the harm it continues to inflict on their community.
There are now regular anti-government protests outside Gori’s City Hall.
According to Mari, a university student in Tbilisi who is from Gori, these protests feel different. “They have an energy and determination that could ignite lasting change. If the government continues to ignore or suppress the voices of the people, the movement may grow into something larger, possibly transformative,” she explains. “This could be a pivotal moment for Georgia, but it could also fade if momentum is lost. The people seem determined, but history has shown how fragile such moments can be.”
It is essential for U.S. policymakers to understand the gravity of these rapidly unfolding events. According to Japaridze, among the key questions going forward are whether indiscriminate police violence intimidates the protesters into staying home, or galvanizes their democratic efforts. And will GD be able to continue its crackdowns and arrests of opposition leaders without triggering additional resignations from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and defections to the side of the protesters?
The U.S. and European Union must collaborate closely and create a joint policy. Strong condemnations of police violence and statements that the U.S. stands with the Georgian people must continue. There must be strong punitive measures against GD officials because, without this, the crackdowns will escalate, and it will become increasingly difficult to help the protesters.
The U.S. should implement measures against GD’s leadership, such as targeted sanctions and travel bans, but it must steer clear of crippling economic sanctions that could harm the Georgian people. It is also essential for the EU to refrain from taking away visa-free travel for Georgians because, once again, this will harm the wrong segment of the population. With the incoming Trump presidency, the Biden administration must act decisively and swiftly before the U.S.’s Georgia policy may change.
Above all, a strong U.S. response is essential so that the Georgian people have support and do not feel alone. The protesters are on the frontlines of democracy, preventing their country from succumbing to an authoritarian regime and being dominated by Russia. It is unlikely that the political situation in Georgia will return to its prior state, but the last thing Washington wants is for the protesters to become disillusioned and give up the fight. Indecision will allow GD to regain control of the country and commit widespread abuse against its opponents. Solidarity with the Georgian people is essential as they reclaim the future they deserve.
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