
Russia’s Billion-Dollar ‘Shadow Fleet’
DEEP DIVE – On January 10, the oil tanker Eventin was steaming westward from Russia along Germany’s Baltic coast, bucking eight-foot waves and biting winds, […] More
OPINION — The so-called “Axis of Authoritarian” states – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea – pose an immediate threat to the international world order. Each is a dictatorship fomenting unrest in East Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Each tried to influence our November 5th elections. They failed.
How ironic, however, that the official Chinese Communist Party news wire service, Xinhua, ran a series of essays highlighting what it described as eight problems with the U.S. election cycle, according to the Washington Times Threat Status. There is no democracy in China; no elections permitting the people to elect their representatives and their leader, Xi Jinping. Nonetheless, their state-run news agency sees fit to criticize our democratic system, where the people make these leadership decisions.
The same can be said for Russia, with their bogus elections, and Iran with its ruling theocracy and North Korea, with the ruling Kim dynasty.
The November 6th edition of the New York Times published a piece — Ten takeaways from the election — that asserted “the relative stability on domestic and international affairs during the past four years is about to be gone, replaced by a volatile president who often operates without regard to national precedent.” I must be missing something; – “relative stability” in international affairs?
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Russia’s war in Ukraine is well into its third year, with over one million casualties reported on both sides. China continues with its efforts to intimidate Taiwan, with naval and air military exercises mimicking a blockade. Provocative Chinese naval exercises have attempted to restrict freedom of navigation in international waters in the South China Sea. The most recent such exercises have been directed at the Philippines and their sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal, per a finding from the United Nations arbitral tribunal.
In the Middle East, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s stated goal is to eradicate Israel, and its support to Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen is part of Iran’s strategy to carry out that mission. The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 men, women and children, and taking 254 hostages, has inflamed the region, with Israel directly confronting Iran and attempting to destroy Hamas, while taking on Hezbollah and the Houthis. Efforts to seek a cease fire in Gaza have failed, with concern that hostilities could escalate, engulfing the region in war.
North Korea is now aligned with a revanchist Russian Federation, with a mutual defense treaty that commits each to come to the defense of the other if attacked. North Korea is providing Russia with significant quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. Recently, North Korea reportedly sent 10,000 Special Forces troops to Russia to aid Russia in its war of aggression in Ukraine. Indeed, North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to grow exponentially, with North Korea’s launch of an Intercontinental ballistic missile – the Hwasong – 19 – capable of reaching the whole of the U.S. North Korea’s constitution has been amended to make South Korea and the U.S. North Korea’s principal enemies, with Pyongyang eschewing reunification with South Korea, while destroying all roads and rail lines that connect the two Koreas.
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As I have written in this space before, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, now aligned with Russia, may be emboldened to incite conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The Korean War from 1950-53 resulted in significant U.S., South Korea, Chinese and North Korean casualties, and the1953 armistice simply stopped the fighting, leaving hostilities to continue. The possibility of another war on the Korean Peninsula is greater now than any time since the 1953 armistice; this time, however, a North Korea aligned with Russia, committed to come to the defense of North Korea if attacked, reportedly has tactical and strategic nuclear weapons that Mr. Kim has threatened to use.
In short, the administration of President-elect Donald Trump is inheriting a multitude of foreign policy challenges that will require his immediate attention. And based on his first term as president, it’s likely Mr. Trump will personally interact with Messrs. Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un to resolve some or all of these issues.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times
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