The Munich Dispatches: The Big Surprise Was What Wasn’t Prominently Discussed

The Cipher Brief interviewed a number of national security experts on the sidelines of this year’s Munich Security Conference.  Here are key takeaways from former National Security Agency Director Admiral Mike Rogers (Ret.).  Our interview has been lightly edited.

Watch this interview on The Cipher Brief’s digital channel.

The Cipher Brief: What are your biggest takeaways from this year’s conference?

Adm. Rogers:  This year, you really had four major focus areas. The first clearly, was the Ukraine situation, and that’s why President Volodymyr Zelensky was here, for example.

The second was  the question about Russia and its direction moving forward. You just had the death of Russian Opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Russian election coming up.  So, the focus was on what’s going on in Russia and  the future and its meaning for the rest of the world.

The third really, in some ways was the U.S. political dynamic. There was a lot of concern and questions about what’s going on in the United States. What are the implications for Europe? How do you see this playing out?

And then finally, what’s the future of Europe? What should its structure look like? What should its role be? How does it best position itself for the broader world around us?

Those are the four primary takeaways. But remember, it’s a global conference, so you had nations, groups and individuals literally from all over the world. So, there were discussions about Palestine, Gaza and Hamas, discussions about China, Taiwan, the US-China relationship.

The Cipher Brief:  Let’s dig in on the future of Europe. What are European leaders thinking about? Are they thinking about a future with a US that maybe isn’t as reliable as a partner as it has been in the past to via NATO, or am I putting words in their mouth?

Adm. Rogers:  There has been a long dialogue that’s been going on for a long time now, multiple decades, over the question of what is the appropriate security mechanism for Europe? Is it the NATO alliance? Is it building off the EU as not just a political entity or an economic entity, but also as a security entity? Those discussions tend to flow and ebb over the course of the last decade or so, I would argue, with an increasing concern here in Europe about the two potential presidential candidates and real concern about NATO, Europe, the alliance, America, and what happens were former President Trump to win the election. A lot of Europeans  are asking, “What are the implications for us? Do we need to look at an alternative? Can we count on the Americans? Can we count on the United States?”

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The Cipher Brief:  Ukraine, Russia, you mentioned that as one of the big themes this year. Any sort of new ideas being thrown around about how to address Putin’s aggressive behavior?

Adm. Rogers:  The dialogue here was around number one, can Ukraine count on the West, the EU, the United States, NATO and other nations? Can Ukraine count on continued financial, military, and political support from the rest of the world as it executes its fight on the ground and in the air against the forces of Russia that have illegally invaded their nation? There were lots of questions about that.

There were lots of questions as well about when this war will end and how. What’s the mechanism to end it? Does it end, or does this become a long-term, standing conflict or a frozen conflict? Some people like to use the analogy of, ‘Well, does this become a situation like South and North Korea,” where quite frankly, we have an armistice, but we have never formally ended that conflict, and we have the most heavily fortified border in the world with literally a million troops on either side. Hey, does that play out in Ukraine?’ I certainly hope not.

The Cipher Brief:  Is anybody talking about China?

Adm. Rogers:  Yes, plenty of discussion about China. The U.S. Secretary of State and his  Chinese foreign minister counterpart used the opportunity to talk, since they were both here in Munich. So, there’s been discussion on the margins of the conference. It’s one of the things that makes the Munich Security Conference so valuable.  It becomes a convening place for a breadth of nations around the world, and so many of those nations use this as a vehicle to engage in discussions with each other, and that’s a very positive thing.

The Cipher Brief:  Have you heard anything that surprised you that you maybe didn’t expect when you were going into the conference?

Adm. Rogers:  One thing that surprised me was the death of Alexei Navalny, sadly, in Russia. I just wondered why Putin would have picked now for this to occur. I have no inside information. I’ll just give you my sense, having dealt with the Russians and the Soviets for decades, and having paid great attention to Vladimir Putin in my previous life as the director of the National Security Agency, this wasn’t a natural death. Navalny was clearly killed, murdered. One of my surprises was that he elected to do this in the middle of the Munich Security Conference. To me, it goes to show you his arrogance, his detachment from reality, and the fact that I think he also wanted to send a very broad signal to the broader world. There is no alternative in Russia to Vladimir Putin in Vladimir Putin’s mind, and he won’t accept any alternatives.

The Cipher Brief: Let me go back to your previous role as the head of Cyber Command and the head of the National Security Agency. What was the buzz on the sidelines there about cyber and tech?

Adm. Rogers:  The conference has a related gathering that actually occurs the day before the MSC itself starts and it’s called the Munich Cybersecurity Conference. I participated in that this year, and it really is the primarily for cyber and cybersecurity. What you did see at the Munich Security Conference, though, was an element about the national security dimensions of technology, and within the broad scope of technology, there was very high interest and a lot of discussion about the implications of artificial intelligence. What are the implications of AI from a national security perspective, as well as from an economic and a societal kind of impact perspective?

The Cipher Brief:  NATO has been really focused on understanding how to better invest in future national security, I think taking some lessons from the United States. I know there are a lot of this booming industry of private sector investors who are interested in dual use technologies. Do you sense a lot of interest around those issues as well, as we’re seeing the private sector really lead the way when it comes to the development of these technologies?

Adm. Rogers:  Very much so. There’s a realization in Europe that industrial capacity, both for many of the traditional commodities associated with national security, certainly the commodities like artillery, mortars, ammunition, et cetera, grenades, the challenges that are really proving to be a limiting factor right now in the battlefield in Ukraine.

You’re not only seeing that but you’re also seeing a discussion about the implications of industrial policy. What are the implications for us economically in terms of how Europe plays a role in the creation of some of these kinds of foundational technologies that are going to shape the future? Clearly, Europe has come to the conclusion that they need to invest in it. They need to create alternatives here in Europe so they aren’t just reliant on China or the United States.

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The Cipher Brief:  Were there any surprises this year?

Adm. Rogers:  I was a little but surprised that Palestine and Gaza wasn’t a bigger issue here. It’s not that it wasn’t discussed, it just wasn’t as prominent. Many of the Palestinian presentations were on the last day and the World Economic Forum in Davos last month was the same way. You just didn’t hear the Gaza situation really addressed very visibly, very directly or very prominently. Not that it wasn’t discussed, but that was the biggest surprise to me in some ways. My sense is that a lot of people are uncomfortable taking a public position. They’re concerned about blowback and so they would just rather not have large public discussions about it. That’s my sense.

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