As the Group of Seven (G7) leaders meet in the French coastal town of Biarritz this weekend, the issue of recent Russian behavior will most certainly be discussed. A series of global leaders rebuffed a statement earlier this week from President Trump, who said that it would be “appropriate” for Russia to re-join the group. Ukraine’s president was among the European voices who opposed the idea, reminding leaders that Moscow still occupies Crimea and undermining peace in Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin is also facing the largest outbreak of unrest in Russia in nearly a decade as protesters have taken to the streets of Moscow for the past several weekends, calling for free and fair elections among other things.
We spoke with Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Station Chief Dan Hoffman about how he sees recent events unfolding and what they could mean for Russia moving forward.
The Cipher Brief: How should we be thinking about the contrast that exists between engaging Russia as a serious nation state and something you’ve talked about recently, that the Kremlin is behaving more like an aggressive and dangerous rogue state than a member of the community of nations?
Hoffman: That's the policy question for the administration. We admitted Russia to the G7 after 9/11 when President Putin promised to work with us and support us in our counter terrorism efforts. We kicked Russia out after they invaded Ukraine. There are a lot of issues right now where our interests are diverging like Ukraine, Russia's interference in European and U.S. elections, Russia's flagrant violation of international treaties like the Chemical Weapons Convention, their violation of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, those are all things of great concern. The President said he wanted to bring Russia back into the G7 and make it the G8 again, but nobody's really discussed overall what our strategy is with Russia. I guess we just have to wait to hear what the administration is thinking on bigger terms. But I've always felt it's like a Venn diagram. There are some areas in which our interests intersect where we should agree on things like arms control and space exploration and counter terrorism, and countering organized crime that doesn't involve Russia and in other areas where our interests diverge like over Russia's massive espionage efforts and their violation of democracy and human rights at home and abroad.
The Cipher Brief: What’s your reaction to the civil unrest that's been happening in Moscow over the past several weekends?
Hoffman: I think it's typical of autocracies that try to prevent any public expression of descent. What you're seeing in Hong Kong, what you're seeing in Russia is what happens when people don't have a means to protest, they're not allowed freedom of assembly like they are for example in our country, so they run the risk of being seen as threats to the regime's security because what scares Vladimir Putin is democracy. These are Russians who don't feel like their own government is really listening to their grievances have no real path to be heard, certainly not through Russia's corrupt parliament, so they're out there protesting and demonstrating how they feel about things. There is no evidence it will solve anything in the near term, but it just shows you how brittle Russian autocracy is.
The Cipher Brief: U.S. Cyber Command has reportedly taken a much more aggressive approach toward Russia over the past year. Are you optimistic that there has been any positive result from the U.S.'s shift in cyber policy as it relates to Russia? Will it actually impact the Kremlin’s behavior?
Hoffman: From everything I've seen, Russia seems as intent as they've ever been on interfering in the democratic process. There have been reports that U.S. Cyber Command has targeted Russia's offensive cyber capability as their point of attack, but Russia, at least according to some of our experts in the government, some of whom have testified publicly, remains as focused as ever on using that asymmetric weapon against us. It's just an ongoing struggle and an ongoing challenge for us in the intelligence community and for our policy as well.
The Cipher Brief: Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan has been nominated to become next U.S. Ambassador to Russia. What advice would you give him if you were offering him a pre-office briefing?
Hoffman: I think I'd go back to that Venn diagram of issues where some interests diverge, and some intersect. He's got to find the things that we can agree on and build on that while at the same time, defending us from Russia's aggression. It's very clear that our interests diverge and Russia is on the offensive. Russia is very nervous. So is China. They keep telling us not to interfere in their internal affairs. It's just a fact that all of those protesters derive a lot of inspiration from the West and specifically from the United States because they want freedom and liberty and democracy. A big part of our embassy work overseas is sharing what is great about our country with those who live in those countries. That's where both the challenge and the tension are rooted. That’s why the ambassador may find that the Russian government isn't as welcoming as he might like.
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