OPINION — Nearly 24 years ago, standing in the Bundestag in Berlin, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin delivered one of the most remarkable speeches of the post-Cold War era, in which he spoke – in near-perfect German – of the historical and cultural links between Russia, Germany, and Europe. Putin received a standing ovation for that speech, which was given one year into his presidency. And then in February 2022, he gave a very different, uglier kind of speech in Moscow, where he outlined false historical and political justifications for the invasion of Ukraine, beginning a war of genocidal proportions. Three years later, that war has killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russians, devastated Ukraine, and made refugees of nearly a quarter of its population.
For years, many Western observers, diplomats, intelligence officers, politicians, journalists, and the prior American administration (under President Joe Biden) have labeled Putin a thug and murderer, who cannot possibly be negotiated with. Given his genocidal imperative (for which Putin has been indicted for war crimes), ruthlessness, and maximalist negotiating positions, such sentiments have appeared reasonable and salient.
But the re-election of President Donald Trump – who has vowed to end what he sees as a senseless war – has dramatically changed the negotiating dynamics between the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. This week in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted leading Russian and American diplomatic representatives – Russia’s Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, senior advisor and former Ambassador to the U.S. Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev (Director of Russia’s Direct Sovereign Wealth Fund), and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff in a stunning day of negotiations – the highest-level U.S.-Russia talks since the war started in 2022. The negotiations were productive and led to initial working agreements to improve relations, expand diplomatic representation in both countries, and to seek a lasting peace in Ukraine. The most dramatic part of the signaling and lead-up to the negotiations included a lengthy phone call between Presidents Putin and Trump, after which President Trump suggested – a paradox of sorts – reciprocal state visits and re-admission of Russia to the G8, in effect welcoming Russia – and Putin – back into the family of nations.
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The other intriguing variable in the negotiations was the presence of Dmitriev, the American-educated (Stanford; Harvard MBA) CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a $10+ billion sovereign wealth fund, which was ironically first funded by Delta Private Equity, which later became the US-Russia Investment Fund. Dmitriev – who is closely linked to Putin as well as leading Russian financial representatives and government ministers – has spoken openly of future joint US-Russia Arctic energy projects and other investments.
Remarkably, both Ukraine and the European Union – and American special envoy to Ukraine Lt. General Keith Kellogg – were left out of these negotiations, causing disdain, criticism, and hostile language from European politicians and Ukraine’s President Zelensky. The developments highlighted deep, impassioned divisions in the relationship between America and its European allies, including Ukraine. These divisions now pose significant, lethal risks for Ukraine and its beleaguered President Zelensky, who risks becoming Ukraine’s version of Afghanistan’s now-forgotten leader Hamid Karzai, who went from hero to loser, a now almost forgotten figure. And both Presidents Putin and Zelensky are familiar with that old Russian proverb – “из избы he bыносить сорy,” e.g., “don’t take rubbish out of your hut.” In the colloquial English, Don’t air your dirty laundry.
President Trump has long prided himself on his negotiating instincts, business experience, and unpredictability, as noted in his book, “The Art of the Deal.” But negotiating with Putin – a trained KGB officer, politician, diplomat, and currently, indicted war criminal, presents unique challenges for even the most talented politicians. Therefore, caution is warranted, even though there are precedents – Dayton 1995 and Kosovo 1999 – for negotiating with war criminals such as Serbia’s late Slobodan Milošević. President Trump’s social media posts critiquing Ukraine’s President Zelensky have deflected serious attention from the more strategically important high-risk, high-reward aspects of any future negotiations with Russia. Importantly, President Trump is not the first American President to have tried to ‘reset’ relations with Russia and Putin.
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Throughout his political career, Putin has shown that he can pivot from ruthlessness to civility, and come across as reasonable, rational, diplomatic, and businesslike – even today, as Russia continues to pound Ukraine militarily. He has now shown the ability – with Trump’s help – to go from pariah to statesman, and to have earned at least some of what he and Russia have always craved – power and respect on the world stage, in particularly in the Global South. And after this past week’s negotiations, Putin has achieved that – a remarkable victory of sorts. As in previous years, Putin’s gambit has worked. Given last week’s negotiations, Putin knows that his initial diplomatic ‘win’ cannot easily undone, regardless of Ukrainian and European sentiments.
Successful negotiations – even with an indicted war criminal such as Putin – are achievable, but very challenging, and require a willingness to re-examine existing biases and paradigms. President Trump has shown a willingness to do the latter, but what is now needed – besides an immediate ceasefire – are patient, ongoing, formal diplomatic negotiations and strict message discipline, allowing for next steps, confidence-building measures, and the hopes of bringing the tragic Ukraine war to an end. More critically, close relations between the U.S. and Russia, and perhaps even Russia and Europe, have the potential to impact and weaken Russia’s strategic alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea, towards a more favorable posture vis-à-vis America and the West; those U.S. adversaries are watching these latest moves very closely. But as President Trump and his negotiating team embark on the biggest negotiation of Trump’s political life, he, our EU allies, and Ukraine must appreciate that failure is not an option and would be devastating for the post-Cold War world order. In Putin’s mind at the moment, it’s Putin 1, Trump 0. His gambit has worked – so far. Next move, please.
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