OPINION — The proliferation of nuclear weapons and the recent Iranian attack on Israel are two reasons why we should upgrade our missile defense capabilities and ensure that Iran never gets nuclear weapons.
On April 14, 2024, Iran launched more than 300 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, in what could have been the beginning of a war in the Middle East. Fortunately, more than 99 percent of the missiles and drones were intercepted. Israel’s effective multilayered missile defense system, comprised of the Arrow (to intercept long-range ballistic missiles), David’s Sling (to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles), Patriot (to intercept Scud missiles and shoot down aircraft and drones), and the Iron Dome to (shoot down short-range rockets) prevented Iran from inflicting massive casualties and destruction on Israel. The United States and the United Kingdom also helped Israel to shoot down Iranian drones over Jordan, Iraq, and Syria.
On April 19, Israel responded, launching several small drones at the Iranian city of Isfahan, causing minimal damage. Israel’s decision to respond cautiously to the Iranian attack and Iran’s muted response to Israel’s attack on Isfahan appeared to be a concerted effort by both sides to avert all-out war.
Not just the Middle East
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine from the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un recently announced that his country will make more nuclear weapons designed to fit on a variety of delivery systems developed to overwhelm South Korean missile defense systems. And Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has ensured that Iran, currently enriching uranium at 60 percent, remains a threshold nuclear weapons state that can quickly enrich uranium at the 90 percent weapons grade level.
If North Korea retains and expands its nuclear arsenal, as it is currently doing, and hopes for the denuclearization of North Korea remain unrealistic, and if Iran should acquire nuclear weapons, as they were actively pursuing up until 2003, then it is likely we will have a nuclear arms race in both East Asia and the Middle East.
South Korea in the 1970s was pursuing a secret nuclear weapons program. It is possible they will do it again — this time overtly — if North Korea continues to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic and cruise missiles to deliver them, while embracing Russia and supporting Putin’s war in Ukraine. Recent polling in South Korea had over 70 percent of the respondents saying South Korea would need its own nuclear weapons, despite United States extended nuclear deterrent commitments, if North Korea retains its nuclear weapons. It is also likely that Japan, Taiwan and others in East Asia will decide to pursue indigenous nuclear weapons programs if North Korea retains its own nuclear arsenal.
Meanwhile, an Iran with nuclear weapons would incite Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey to also pursue their own nuclear weapons programs.
China’s nuclear program
China is exponentially increasing its nuclear arsenal. Under President Xi Jinping, China reportedly is planning to increase its nuclear arsenal from approximately 200 warheads to 1000 warheads by 2030, for military and geopolitical leverage. And satellite imagery has disclosed that China is building two nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silo fields, in Gansu province for 120 silos and in Eastern Xinjiang for 110 silos. If all these silos are loaded with single-warhead missiles, then the number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs could increase from about 185 warheads today to as many as 415 warheads. If they are loaded with the new, multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVed) DF-41 ICBMs, then these ICBMs could potentially carry more than 875 warheads when these two missile silo fields are operational. This significant increase in nuclear weapons and doctrinal shift from maintaining a “minimal” nuclear deterrent to a “sizable” nuclear deterrent is meaningful. Unfortunately, however, China refuses to have a dialogue with U.S. counterparts to discuss our respective nuclear programs.
Given the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Iran’s support to the terrorist group Hamas and its missile attack on Israel, tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, China’s exponential increase in its nuclear arsenal and North Korea’s nuclear and missile buildup, it should be obvious that more must be done to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used, intentionally or accidentally. Any use of nuclear weapons would be catastrophic.
President Ronald Reagan in 1983 proposed a missile defense Strategic Defense Initiative to protect the U.S. from a nuclear attack launched by the Soviet Union. In December 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, stating that the treaty was hindering the U.S. from protecting itself against terrorists and rogue states.
The recent bipartisan Strategic Posture Commission recommended that “The U.S. develop and field homeland IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defense) that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China.”
Defending against peer-coercive nuclear threats, while also defending against rogue nuclear threats, is an imperative for this and future administrations. Clearly, in addition to a robust nuclear deterrent, we need to invest more in our missile defense capabilities, to protect the homeland and to protect our allies and partners, if diplomacy and deterrence fails.
This piece by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe Detrani was first published in The Washington Times
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