Message From Ukraine: Russia is ‘Playing Games’ with the Trump Administration

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — While global policymakers, experts, and analysts work to understand and respond to recent shifts in the U.S. approach to Europe and Russia, nowhere are the pivots felt as keenly as in Ukraine, which this week marked the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Given recent American overtures to Russia, anxiety in Ukraine now has as much to do with announcements from the Trump administration as it does with developments on the battlefield. As Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, told The Cipher Brief, “Today the main newsmaker in the world and in Ukraine is President Trump.”

What can and should Ukraine do in this moment, to safeguard and improve its chances on the front lines? How should its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, handle a critical meeting scheduled for Friday with President Trump, when the two are expected to discuss – and perhaps sign – a deal on Ukrainian critical minerals? And what does all the geopolitical tumult mean for the country most affected?

Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski put these questions to Goncharenko on Thursday, the eve of Zelensky’s visit to The White House. Goncharenko said the Ukrainian leader should make clear that Ukraine has three red lines in any deal to end the war: “independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” and he added that the U.S. has much to lose if it turns from Ukraine and its European allies. “I don’t think the best way to make America great again is to make America single again,” he said. “Allies are part of the strength of the United States, not part of weakness.”
Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can also watch the full discussion on The Cipher Brief YouTube channel.

Nagorski: It has been a few weeks of great turmoil for the continent, and for your country. And I imagine as Ukrainians, you typically spend most of your time looking for news from the front line, from the battlefield. Has it gotten to the point lately where you are waiting and watching for the latest from Washington?

Goncharenko: Exactly. Today in Ukraine, everybody is waking up and looking at their phone to watch what President Trump said. We are in different time zones; we go to sleep and the United States is awakening, making some decisions or statements. Then we wake up and look for these and sometimes are quite shocked, sometimes very concerned, sometimes happy to hear. Today the main newsmaker in the world and in Ukraine is President Trump.

Nagorski: We have heard that there may be a deal on this rare earth minerals issue. There may also be nothing about security guarantees for Ukraine in that deal. What is your mood right now in terms of what you’re hearing from the U.S.?

Goncharenko: First, about this deal. We see the text. I don’t know what will be finally signed, but it looks OK. It looks more like a framework, and an [agreement] to continue to negotiate. We want to have American companies and American interest as much as possible here in Ukraine. It is very important, and I like the fact that in the text there is no more talking about paybacks [to the U.S.]. That’s something which is very important for us. 

There is not much about security there, almost nothing. But I really was not expecting this deal to be about security, to be frank with you. I think in general it’s good for security if more American business will be in Ukraine, producing some natural resources, building infrastructure, owning infrastructure and so on. 

And the second track is American-Russian negotiations. We are very worried about these negotiations. We are very exhausted and tired from all these years of war, and we want peace. But it should be a real peace, not a ceasefire. And it should be as just a peace as possible.

I think that Ukraine should be clear about our red lines, just to show what is unacceptable for us, and then to hope that our American partners and allies will make a deal which will be in line with what is important and crucial for us. That’s what we are looking for. 

I’m quite disturbed about the Russians. I think they’re playing games with President Trump and with the United States. I think they try to use these negotiations not to reach peace, but to solve some tactical things, like destroying their international isolation, a lifting of at least some sanctions, and winning some time to continue to advance. And also winning some time to watch how possible disagreements between the United States and Europe, and the United States and Ukraine, will develop. And I think that Putin will drag his feet as long as possible with meeting with President Trump. He will try to avoid it for as long as possible. 

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Nagorski: Those red lines that you mentioned – what are they exactly? And do you think these will be communicated by President Zelensky to President Trump?

Goncharenko: I think that’s exactly what he should do. What I would message to President Trump would be our red lines. It’s all about three things: independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Russia tried to destroy all of these and to destroy Ukraine. And even Russia, I think, realizes that they failed. Ukraine is independent and will be independent. We protected our independence and we are an independent state. 

Territorial integrity, that is a much more complicated thing. It looks like part of our territories will still be occupied after the end of hostilities. But what is very important for us is that there shouldn’t be any recognition of this territory as Russian. The first red line, the occupied territories are illegally occupied territories. That is important for us to keep in mind, because the day will come – not today, not tomorrow, but I’m sure the day will come, when the Russian empire will fall apart, like it happened 100 years ago with the Russian empire, 30 years ago with the Soviet Union. This is the last colonial empire in Europe and one day it will fall apart. And at this moment we will regain our control over our territories and restore our territorial integrity. 

Red line number two, sovereignty. There cannot be any limitation of Ukrainian sovereignty, meaning the sovereign right of Ukraine to make its own choices. What army to have, what military production to have, what alliances to join and so on. Now I understand that President Trump does not see us today in NATO, but it should be our right to knock at the doors. Will we be taken or not? That’s up to NATO, but maybe there are other alliances we can join. We would definitely want to join the European Union, and so on. We should remain a sovereign nation. 

The third red line is security guarantees. We need at least some kind of security guarantees. The best security guarantee I think is membership in NATO – probably it’s not on the table. Another possibility is some treaty with the United States, the kind South Korea and Japan have. If not, there can be some complex thing, including European boots on the ground. But it should be something, because if not, Russia will use this time just to refresh, replenish and attack again. We know this for sure. Maybe they will not do this during Trump’s presidency. But four years, even less already, it’s not such a long time. 

Those are the three red lines which, if I were Zelensky, I would message to Trump. 

And the other thing which I would message to President Trump would be: please don’t underestimate Ukraine. Yes, today we need security and we ask your support. But after the end of hostilities, we will become exporters of security. We have the strongest infantry in the world, a battle-hardened infantry of the 21st century. No other country in the world except Russia has it. Nobody knows what will be next. Will it be a big war with China? Iran? I don’t know. What will happen in the Middle East? Or anywhere in the world. I’m sure the United States and the free world will need our army. This is a huge asset. So look at us not just as a burden, but look at us as an asset. And not speaking only about rare earth minerals. The rarest thing in the earth is not minerals. The rarest thing in the earth is human courage. And Ukraine has plenty of it. 

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Nagorski: If a deal is put forward that violates those red lines or for whatever reason is not acceptable to Ukraine, I assume then the country continues to fight, without at least the same level of support from Washington. How concerned are you or how confident are you in the ability of your country and the armed forces to continue the fight?

Goncharenko: Again, don’t underestimate us. Yes, we are tired, we are exhausted, but I just want to remind you that three years ago, it was not American Marines who stopped Russians in the suburbs of Kyiv. It was the Ukrainian Army. Also at that time, we had almost no Western weaponry, close to nothing, and we stopped the Russians. 

Can we continue to fight even without American support? Yes, we can, but it will be a huge price – tens of thousands of people killed and it’s an awful scenario. I don’t want us to be in this scenario. It’s the worst possible scenario, not just for Ukraine, but also for the United States and President Trump, because this scenario means that President Trump will receive his own Afghanistan, but much worse, because it will not finish in weeks, but will continue bleeding for months in the eyes of the whole world. And the whole world will ask one question: the United States said you can count on us, we will be with you as long as it takes, and now this country is dying before our eyes. I don’t think it will add anything to the U.S. image and to U.S. strength.

Nagorski: You said the other day that there cannot be a divorce between Ukraine and the United States. What did you mean by that?

Goncharenko: More than that, there shouldn’t be a divorce between the United States and Europe. I said during the Munich Security Conference that I don’t think the best way to make America great again is to make America single again. So this marriage with Europe is super important both for Europe, but also for the United States. And I would look at Ukraine as an important part of Europe now. 

If the United States will say goodbye, we are leaving you, we don’t care anymore about what will happen with you, it means divorce. And it’s bad for both sides. So, I think to make America great again is also to make sure America has great allies. Allies are part of the strength of the United States, not part of weakness.

Nagorski: Have the pledges of support from Europe given you some hope in these difficult moments?

Goncharenko: It’s a mixed feeling. From one point of view, I’m very thankful to our European friends and partners. It looks like they are trying to unite around Ukraine today and support us. But at the same time, I think Europe could react stronger and in a more united way. I think that this is the moment for Europe in this geopolitical chess game to decide — who to be? The player or the board? That’s the question. For the moment I don’t have an answer.

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