Memo to the 47th President: The Psychology of America’s Adversaries Matters 

By Kenneth Dekleva

Dr. Kenneth Dekleva is a former physician-diplomat with the U.S. State Dept. and Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center and senior Fellow, George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations.  He is the author of two novels, The Negotiator's Cross and The Last ViolinistThe views expressed are his own and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, State Dept., or UT Southwestern Medical Center.

MEMO TO THE PRESIDENT — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for their thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in office, what message would you want to deliver?

The answers cover a broad range. In this installment of Memos To 47, Dr. Kenneth Dekleva, a former State Department physician and diplomat, suggests that the President-elect and his team pay close attention to the psychology of their global adversaries. Trump will face a host of dangerous authoritarian leaders of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, who are increasingly joining forces against U.S. interests. And while Trump dealt with some of these leaders during his first term, Dr. Dekleva’s Memo to 47 advises the President-elect to start afresh, and resist the assumption that he already “knows” them.


Mr. President-elect: 

Allow me to congratulate you on your election victory, and your return to the White House.  

You will inherit a complex, dangerous, and fragile world, in which authoritarian leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong Un, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seek to weaken and even dismantle the American-led world order, which they believe is in decline. 

But caution on your part is warranted, because not only has the world changed; so have our adversaries. You will have to shape policies that adapt to such changing circumstances, a daunting task for any incoming president. A clear-eyed, keen, and updated understanding of our adversaries’ psychology is required in order to re-establish American deterrence and primacy. Your tone, words, actions, and political decisions will matter greatly.  

You must be careful not to overvalue your own experience and knowledge – this has also bedeviled President Biden at times – and resist the fallacy that because you have dealt with Putin, Xi, and Kim on a personal basis, you truly “know” them. I would argue that a second, closer look is worthwhile in all these cases, not only because our adversaries are “winning” – playing “Go” and chess while we struggle to play checkers – but because these leaders have continued to adapt and join forces to counter American influence. 

Understanding Putin 

Putin’s ruthlessness, resilience, and role as a genocidal war criminal, disruptor, and master strategist is by now clear to most, and well-known to you. What is less clear is that Putin, who prefers stability and predictable policies, remains wary of you, while valuing – in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s words – your being “a businessman to the core.” No doubt you heard Putin try to appeal to you in his congratulatory message – praising your “courageous” and “manly” qualities, and perhaps he and Russia do see you as somebody whom they can do business with. But your famous unpredictability is also a potential huge asset for you, America, and for our NATO, EU, and Ukrainian allies. While you have previously shown less inclination to support Ukraine in its defense against naked, genocidal aggression, you should demand an immediate cease-fire from the Russians in Ukraine, and should leverage our negotiating position and assets, letting Putin know that if he does not negotiate in good faith, all of our and NATO’s diplomatic, military, intelligence, and economic assets (which President Biden has deployed too cautiously over the past two and a half years) are ready to be activated, full throttle, in support of Ukraine.  

Such a negotiating posture can be coupled with graded sanctions relief for Russia, and an eventual diplomatic path for Russia to rejoin – as a great, historic nation, superpower, and Permanent Five UN Security Council member – the family of nations, rather than remain part of an axis of pariahs. Contrary to much popular opinion, America remains the best possible broker of lasting peace in Ukraine. Leveraging our assets for Ukraine would send a strong message of deterrence to Russia, but also indirectly, to China, North Korea, and Iran. 

Understanding Xi 

China’s President Xi has great ambitions, all a part of his great overriding dream of “rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation by 2049. It’s an aspirational, personal vision for Xi, who overcame childhood trauma and years in the political wilderness to begin to articulate and activate such soaring goals. But you have made known your desire for “America First,” and that this means that the U.S.  cannot and will not take second place to any other superpower. Your policy of deterrence must involve a stronger American military, industrial base, economic power, and diplomatic outreach, showing Xi and the Chinese Communist Party that while America does not seek hegemony, it also does not seek any lessening of its leadership role and status, even in a multipolar world. The “new Cold War” is a war that we must win; and you intuitively understand this. 

Iran and North Korea 

You had many successes against Iran during your first term, deterring their expansion of terrorism across the Middle East (i.e., the killing of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani) and brokering the historic Abraham Accords as a bulwark against Iran in the region. With your support of Israel, as it combats ruthless enemies in Iran and its Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi proxies, you can be expected to lay the groundwork (with Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Mohammed Bin Salman) for a comprehensive and long-awaited opening of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Like Israel, you understand that deterrence is ultimately psychological, and not merely based upon military strength and power projection. And Iran’s Supreme Leader now understand this too, with greater clarity. 

North Korea and its aggressive, ambitious, and undeterred leader Chairman Kim Jong Un will remain a challenge for you. But you bring certain advantages to the table, in that you have had at least some success in negotiating with Kim. Despite the breakdown of your February 2019 Hanoi summit with Kim, North Korea did not test any nuclear weapons or long-range ICBMs from late 2017 through the remainder of your first term. And as leading North Korea experts have written, there is no viable, realistic substitute for negotiation with the DPRK. The status quo – “strategic patience 2.0” – is simply not viable. You will need to re-establish your personal, diplomatic relationship with Chairman Kim, and lay the groundwork for a resumption of future negotiations. And unlike in 2019, if you start now, more time is on our side. 

It is all too easy for our adversaries and allies to underestimate you, and your resilience and political resurrection. Russia’s Putin knows his history, too. But he and these other American adversaries might do well to remember the consequences for Russia of the last time that the then-USSR faced courageous western leaders – President Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II come to mind – whose courage, bravery and determination, along with their willingness to “take a bullet,” inspired millions to throw off the shackles of 70 years of Soviet communism. Resilience, faith, freedom, and American resolve matter now, more than ever.  

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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