The Cipher Brief’s new Academic Incubator program publishes the work of undergraduate and graduate students, writing short briefs on current national security issues.
This week’s briefer is Sophia Barkoff, a student at the University of Chicago studying Political Science and Russian & East European Studies. This summer she interned at Beacon Global Strategies for Michael Morell, former Acting and Deputy Director of the CIA.
Muslims across the world recently celebrated Eid Al-Adha, The Feast of the Sacrifice. The holiday commemorates a story in the Qur’an about Ibrahim’s [Abraham to Jews and Christians] devotion to God – his willingness to sacrifice his son. Every year on Eid, Muslims sacrifice a sheep to share with family. This year, however, Muslims in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir (Kashmir) were unable to celebrate.
This was the result of the Indian parliament’s August 5th decision to repeal Article 370 of its constitution, which granted Kashmir autonomy as a state of India. Repealing it means that Kashmir has lost the power of self-governance, putting it under the complete control of the Indian parliament. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s decision was driven by a desire to play to his Hindu nationalist base.
Immediately following the constitutional change, India put Kashmir on a preemptive lockdown to prevent uprisings, placing nearly seven million people under virtual house arrest. The Indian government sent in thousands of troops, turned off internet access, and banned public gatherings. Still, protests erupted throughout the Kashmir valley region, from mountain towns to Srinagar, Kashmir’s largest city. Police reacted with force, killing several, injuring dozens, and detaining hundreds.
Pakistan, which claims Kashmir as part of the Pakistani state, denounced India’s August 5th decision and retaliated by closing part of its airspace to Indian commercial flights, banning all Indian movies from being screened in Pakistan, halting a symbolic train service between the two countries, and warning of a possible genocide in Kashmir, comparing Modi to Hitler. Limited fighting broke out across the border, and India announced that it would begin easing its restrictions in Kashmir.
This is far from the first time that Kashmir has been the source of tension between India and Pakistan. Kashmir has a rich history as a flash point between the two nations, and to understand where we might be going, it is helpful to look back at how we got here.
Kashmir is a mountainous, Himalayan region in Asia, straddling Pakistan, India, and China. Britain held Kashmir until 1947, when it withdrew its colonial control from the Indian subcontinent, dividing territory between Hindu majority India and Muslim majority Pakistan. Kashmir, with a majority Muslim population but with a significant Hindu minority, was smack in the middle.
According to British policy, Kashmir’s Muslim majority populace (of India’s 29 states and 7 union territories, Kashmir is India’s only Muslim majority state) meant the territory should have become part of Pakistan. But the local Hindu leader, responsible for governance of Kashmir under Britain’s supervision, ceded Kashmir to India.
Pakistan retaliated in 1948 with a guerilla force, trying to take the territory. This marked the first Indo-Pakistani war, ending in 1949 when the United Nations (UN) helped establish a ceasefire line, the Line of Control, which has been heavily militarized ever since. Pakistan was able to retain a portion of Kashmir but still sees all of Kashmir as part of Pakistan.
Since 1949, additional major conflicts have been fought over Kashmir. Tensions reached a breaking point in 1965, when Pakistan sent soldiers across the Line of Control posing as Kashmiris, assuming real Kashmiris would seize the opportunity to rise up against India. India caught word of this plan and sent in its own forces. It took a month for both sides to agree to a ceasefire coordinated by the UN, and Pakistan was left with little to show for the heavy losses it sustained.
A wary peace existed until 1971, when East Pakistan exploded into protests for independence, and East Pakistani guerilla forces – with help from India – resisted Western Pakistani forces sent to suppress the uprising. Pakistan was ultimately forced to accept the creation of Bangladesh, thereby losing its territory in the east. Shortly after the war came the 1972 Simla Agreement, which determined that any future agreements made over territory – like Kashmir – would be negotiated only between Pakistan and India, without the assistance of other countries.
Again, this tentative peace did not last long. Kashmiri Muslims in Indian-controlled Kashmir protested the 1987 legislative elections a decade later, claiming the polls were rigged. Mass protests broke out, followed by an insurgency two years later backed by Pakistan and Pakistan-based militant groups. This insurgency would simmer for almost a decade, until direct confrontation broke out in the fourth, and latest, Indo-Pakistani war. This conflict involved Pakistani military infiltration of Indian Kashmir, erupting shortly after both countries successfully tested nuclear weapons in 1999. With the looming threat of nuclear war, the Clinton Administration, including the President himself, had to step in to diffuse the conflict.
The latest flare-up, that could have easily evolved to war, happened just earlier this year. In February, a suicide bomber killed 40 Indian law enforcement officers in Indian-controlled Kashmir. The attacker was a Kashmiri teenaged member of Jaish-e-Muhammad, a Pakistan-based militant group that the U.S. designated as a terrorist organization in 2001. In retaliation, India sent jets over the Line of Control, crossing it for the first time since 1971. The jets launched airstrikes on an alleged Jaish-e-Muhammad training camp inside Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. What happened next is contested. Pakistan claims both Indian jets were shot down by Pakistan’s air force, releasing a video of an Indian pilot in custody. India only confirmed the loss of one plane and took credit for shooting down a Pakistani jet responding to the incident.
All told, these conflicts in Kashmir, and many smaller ones, have resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Attempts to resolve the issue diplomatically have seen little progress. Insurgent violence and terrorism have been the only constants. Recently, an offer from President Trump to help mediate a peace deal was rejected by India. Although Pakistan has sought Western help, India has stubbornly stuck to the Simla Agreement, rejecting all foreign interference.
Now, with India’s change to its constitution, we are facing the prospect of another crisis, including the possibility of a war that could go nuclear. If past patterns hold, we would expect, as a next step, to see Pakistani-inspired terrorist attacks both against Indian targets in Kashmir, but perhaps even beyond, such as the 2008 attacks in Mumbai that killed over 160 people. Such attacks could take us up the escalatory ladder quickly. Those in Kashmir who spent Eid Al-Adha without their families unfortunately again face the prospect of major violence on their doorstep, all because a long-standing territorial dispute has never been resolved.
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