As part of The Cipher Brief’s look at known Russian spies, we spoke with Cipher Brief Expert Rolf Mowatt-Larssen about the spy game and a potential difference in focus when it comes to human espionage carried out on behalf of both the US and Russia.
Mowatt-Larssen is a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center and served over three years as the Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy.
He served for 23 years as a CIA intelligence officer in various domestic and international posts, to include Chief of the Europe Division in the Directorate of Operations, Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counterterrorist Center, and Deputy Associate Director of Central Intelligence for Military Support.
The Cipher Brief: With all of the global uncertainty stemming from advances in technology, geopolitical shifting in Europe and the Middle East, the US-China trade war and the COVID crisis occurring at the same time how are these issues playing out in Russia? What are the underlying conditions right now with the Russian intelligence community and Putin's goals against the United States?
Mowatt-Larssen: It's changing dramatically, and you referred to some of the reasons for it, so let me supplement those. First, for the Russians' espionage in particular is much more important to them as a state than it is for us, because they're the weaker party. And secondly, over the years since 9/11, the US has been far more distracted by other priorities than recruiting spies. I'm not saying we're not recruiting spies. I'm saying we've had a lot of other priorities, whether it's Iran’s nuclear program or terrorism that have forced changes in our organization structure, methods, priorities, and ultimately, interests. Whereas the Russians have remained remarkably focused, dead-on on recruiting spies around the world, playing the traditional role of intelligence services, and expanding their thinking on how they conduct espionage to include cyber and using modern technology. Still, their focus is on human spies, mainly. They conduct cyber operations, but they also seek human-enabled spyware, so hybrid cyber operations.
The US does all of this too, but I'm concerned that we're not as focused as they are, and they have perhaps gained a relative advantage, at least tactically, over the last 20 years in this sphere. Particularly in counterintelligence, where if you're reading the press accounts of say, agency networks and activity lately, and I'm not saying they're accurate or not accurate, I don't know, but if they are, one would think that we have a fundamental issue of an erosion of tradecraft and espionage based on what I'm reading about Chinese networks and Iranian networks being ‘rolled up’ by those countries. I hope I'm wrong. But I think that two conditions that I would highlight are first, that the Russians have a greater sense of urgency in their need for espionage because of their relative strategic disadvantages with respect to the US, and second, that they've maintained their sharper focus on it over the last 20 years than we have.
Of course I hope there's a lot going on behind the scenes. But I would also say in the same breath that I think that one thing that has changed is authoritarian regimes these days, specifically the Russians, are actually appealing to disgruntled Americans out of a sense that maybe they have more to offer than they feel they have in their own country.
There have been very few historical examples of what I would call American spies who actually believed in the Soviet ideology or what the Russians represent as a governance model and a country with their lack of civil liberties and privacy. But these days, it's easier for me to imagine angry Americans that would be more prone to not only collaborate with the Russians, but potentially do it out of an ideological affinity for what Putin and Russia represents. They might see it as more stable or more together than they see the chaos in their own country. Of course, I categorically reject that, but I'm just trying to dispassionately analyze what might motivate Americans to spy for Russia.
The Cipher Brief: In terms of Russian espionage efforts directed at the US, beyond the obvious of disinformation and Russian interference in our election system, what are some of the areas that concern you most?
Mowatt-Larssen: My biggest concern is right now is our counterintelligence capabilities and focus which I believe has diminished over the years. And I hope I'm wrong in that, because I don't have direct knowledge. But I think we have to assume that the Russians have taken advantage of that to recruit well-placed spies in our national security community, including CIA and FBI. I think for planning purposes, we have to assume that, and I'm hoping that the US counterintelligence community gets its act together.
For one thing, we have tended now since Ames in particular, to look at counterintelligence as an organizational problem and we created the National Counterintelligence Center. It was never an organizational problem, it's a focus problem. And we need mole hunts conducted in little small groups of people who have all the time, resources, and capabilities they need to run to ground if there are any spies in our ranks with the assumption being that they're there. Again, I hope this is something that is happening, but that is my biggest concern, that the Russians are far more focused on recruiting spies in enemy's camps than we are.
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