OPINION — The October 7th terrorist attack on Israelis and its devastating aftermath for Palestinian civilians should be a wake-up call that extends beyond these events alone.
While we don’t know if Iran’s Supreme Leader and Hamas’s terrorist chief had pre-attack, highly compartmented communications, Iran has, for decades, funded, trained, equipped, and sanctioned Hamas. Therefore, directly or indirectly, Tehran abetted the attack and its broader strategic thrust. Indeed, the attack and the geopolitical torrent it has unleashed are the unavoidable crescendo of a long-term Iran strategy to reshape the Middle East.
Iran has continually built up its own - and separately its proxies’ - capabilities in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. The US and Israel have clashed with Iran and all of these proxies multiple times just in the past few weeks. That’s an ominous harbinger.
Iran’s strategy is to create massive opposition to Israel from the Gaza humanitarian crises as Israel seeks to uproot Hamas and as Tehran’s proxies signal that they are ready to launch assaults on Israel and against U.S. personnel if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) goes beyond some point in Gaza.
Iran has armed Lebanese Hezbollah with hundreds of thousands of munitions, rockets, missiles, and fighters (remembering the adage that quantity has a quality all its own) by secreting in month after month, longer range, more accurate, and more capable weapons. Tehran has similarly and clandestinely, seeded in increased capabilities to its other proxies.
There are other important dynamics at play, including Iran’s domestic crack downs; the sometimes lethal shadow war between Israel and Iran; and the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back” — the progress of the U.S. - Saudi - Israel peace initiative.
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For Iran’s leaders, the sum total has been success — in attacking and villainizing Israel; wrecking Israel-Saudi Arabia rapprochement; validating Iran’s long-term strategy of boosting its proxies; substantiating Iran’s regional influence (and global cache by providing drones to Russia for use against Ukraine); and emboldening many in Tehran, who seem to be dialing things up as desired.
These are bad outcomes for the U.S..
Make no mistake; Tehran is playing Machiavellian chess. Its positioning over decades has been impactful. It now sits in a realpolitik catbird’s seat. It can press “launch,” and its proxies will, despite narrow autonomy, respond accordingly. Iran has whittled away its adversaries’ advantages and turbo-charged its influence.
The situation now – where Iran’s proxies continue their periodic attacks and Iran itself ceaselessly chips away U.S. leverage and standing – will, if not halted, inevitably precipitate more crises, even if Hamas’s capabilities are largely eviscerated by Israel.
We haven’t even mentioned Iran’s nuclear or other strategic programs.
In response, the U.S. has deployed major forces, and signaled to Tehran that it and its proxies should stay out of the fight. Washington has indicated that the killing of Americans by Iran’s proxies would cross a red line. In all, the violent dynamics in the region are ratcheting up.
Israel, due to October 7th, made a strategic decision: it will not live with a Hamas in Gaza that openly calls for Israel’s destruction and means it. Notwithstanding potential attacks from Iran’s proxies on multiple fronts, the cost of the Gaza Strip ground invasion, the consequences for the hostages in Gaza, the stability of other countries in the region, and more, Israel will not allow Hamas to survive in its current form.
Israel will make the same calculation – if it hasn’t already – about Iran; it will not live with an Iran that continually calls for its destruction while supporting or even directing attacks against Israel and carrying out the long-term build-up of its own and its proxies’ lethal capabilities.
Will the U.S. make the same determination about Iran? Little by little, inexorably, Iran has changed the strategic balance in the region and wields ever greater power to create tumult. The U.S. cannot afford for Iran to remain on this path, to feel emboldened, and to seek imperviously to undermine the U.S. and its allies.
As the Hamas-Israel war reverberates globally, including via skyrocketing hate incidents, the U.S. is employing a multipronged diplomatic, economic, and military approach. Similar to its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has defended its ally while trying to navigate other issues — in this case, the tragic loss of Palestinian lives given combat in densely populated Gaza.
However, as the last month and decades show, this is not enough.
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The U.S. has understandably long focused on China, Russia, North Korea, and yes, Iran, in order to: constrain Iran’s nuclear and strategic weapons programs, counteract Persian Gulf shipping attacks (that would send oil prices soaring), and thwart cyber and terrorist attacks.
Iran has shown, though, that it will continue to destabilize the region by supporting terrorism to thwart progress towards regional peace and prosperity, when doing so suits its purpose. A resolute U.S. decision to battle Iran’s deadly ambitions, overtly and otherwise, and take an even bolder and more forceful approach toward Iran’s leadership and its proxies’ is needed, while also trying to avoid a full-fledged war.
Given that Iran’s leadership aims to establish a Middle East where American influence is infinitesimal, Iran is a regional-superpower with global sway, and Israel doesn’t exist, the U.S. and its allies must: defend U.S. troops and allies much more aggressively in reply to attacks by Iran’s proxies; run full-blown public information campaigns to expose these leaders and proxies’ corruption and purposeful endangerment of civilians; combat disinformation, especially on social media; even more vigorously engage diplomatically worldwide; widen sanctions, seizures, travel restrictions, and other measures to hold leaders and their proxies accountable; and, over the longer run, finalize the Saudi Arabia – Israel – U.S. peace initiative.
The U.S. needs to lead a coalition of the “in,” those willing to stand-up and cripple the terrorism and other threatening and destructive activities by Iran’s leadership and its proxies. Iran’s covert hands are at the controls. We must remove them, or we will be right back here repeatedly.
In this case, the past is prologue.
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