OPINION — The recent London Ukraine Recovery conference has highlighted the necessity and importance of looking past the war, Ukraine’s currently stalled counter-offensive, and a flurry of commentary in media, government, and think-tank domains of the need for negotiations to end this tragic war. These events have been framed by President Xi’s April 2023 phone call with President Zelensky, President Xi’s recent meetings with Secretary of State Blinken, Prime Minister Modi’s current state visit to America, President Putin’s indictment by the Hague Tribunal for war crimes, and Pope Francis’ recent Vatican meeting with President Zelensky. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul (in his recent op-ed) is totally correct that we need to start thinking about peace in Ukraine. By not ‘losing’ the war outright, Ukraine, led by its heroic, courageous leader President Zelensky, has won a true victory against Russia’s tyranny. But tragically, there are no true real winners in this genocidal war, a war which has left Ukraine damaged, with 30-40% of its population displaced, and expected to cost $1-2 trillion USD to rebuild. The fact that such high-level discussions about negotiations and rebuilding Ukraine are happening now, in the public eye, along with quieter behind the scenes diplomacy, speaks for itself.
Putin’s tenure as Russia’s President, and his previous roles in politics and in the KGB and FSB, reveal a ruthless, intelligent, rational, resilient, and persevering leader who has used a whole of government approach – diplomacy, intelligence, cyber, information warfare, assassinations, military actions, and economic policy – to achieve numerous successes over the past 23 years. His disastrous strategic intelligence failure in Ukraine should not cause outside observers to doubt his tactical capabilities or ability to exhibit long-term patience in achieving his domestic and strategic goals. Putin has always played a ‘long game’ – and he has often played it well. When we think of another pariah leader playing a similar long game with skill, we should look no further than Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad — now a welcome visitor in numerous Middle Eastern capitals. This lesson has surely not been lost upon President Putin.
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