After Trump-Putin Call, New Fears In Ukraine

EXPERT Q&A — The news that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to a limited ceasefire in its war against Ukraine – a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure – was portrayed as a significant step in some quarters, given that it marked the first time Russia had agreed to any halt in its campaign. But for Ukraine and many of its supporters, it was a small gesture, far short of a full 30-day ceasefire that the U.S. and Ukraine had proposed last week.

Worse from the Ukrainian standpoint was the fact that in the immediate aftermath of Putin’s Tuesday call with President Donald Trump, in which he made the pledge to stop striking energy targets, Russia unleashed drone and missile strikes against civilian infrastructure. 

“Putin’s words are at odds with reality,” Zelensky said Wednesday. “There were strikes on transportation, unfortunately, two hospitals were hit, and on urban infrastructure.” 

Trump and Zelensky had their own phone conversation on Wednesday, which the Ukrainian leader described as “positive, very substantive and frank.” Zelensky said he committed to implementing that partial ceasefire, and in return the White House said it would help supply Ukraine with more air-defense equipment.

But a full ceasefire agreement — even a 30-day pause, as the U.S. and Ukraine proposed last week, remains elusive – given various Kremlin demands, including Russian sovereignty over land it has captured, and even some it doesn’t currently control.  

Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke Wednesday with Alexander Khara, CEO of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Ukraine. Khara said he believes the Kremlin will draw out the ceasefire negotiations and continue its attacks, rather than commit to any concessions. But he also sees silver linings in a renewed resolve among Ukrainians. “Even though there is a harsh reality and devastation, particularly in those territories closer to Russia where the war is raging on,” Khara said, “this is the perfect time for Ukraine to preserve its sovereignty and independence.” 

Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: What was your initial reaction when you heard the pledge from Vladimir Putin to stop the strikes against energy infrastructure?

Khara: I would start not from the readout of the meeting, but from two fundamental things that have not been changed by their conversation. First and most important is the genocidal intent in the Kremlin. They want to destroy Ukrainian statehood and subjugate the Ukrainian nation. There is no change in the policies and support from Russia for this goal. Russia has the resources, will, and capabilities to carry on this war. This conversation hasn’t changed anything. 

The second thing is what has been going on in DC. I believe that Mr. Trump has two strategic priorities, which are the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. Europe is not relevant anymore — not to mention Ukraine. Trump would be glad to solve this issue with Russia. And actually, Ukraine is an obstacle for a reset between Putin and Trump. And that’s how we see the way that Mr. Trump negotiates.

Before the talks, he ruled out our membership in NATO — the only real security guarantee that is available or possible for Ukraine, given that Russia is a major nuclear state and much larger in terms of resources. And people from his administration said that the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine are unlikely to be recovered by Ukraine. And then we saw this notorious [Feb. 28] meeting [between Trump and Zelensky] in the Oval Office. I thought it was a diplomatic catastrophe for Ukraine. 

But after a while, I realized that it’s a turning point for Ukraine and for Europe, because there was a huge wave of support for Zelensky in Ukraine from Europeans. There was an extraordinary meeting of European leaders in London, and then there were several meetings of EU officials, defense ministers and others. They are thinking about how to back up Ukraine, how to fill the void that has been left after Trump decided to reduce assistance to Ukraine.

The Cipher Brief: What about the ceasefire proposal itself?

Khara: In Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and the United States agreed on a comprehensive ceasefire, which meant [attacks from] land or sky or sea. And it was unconditional. And actually, Ukraine gave up on one of the key things that we wanted: security guarantees, even for the ceasefire. And the Russians rejected the essence of this joint position of the United States and Ukraine. 

And instead they agreed on things that are not favorable to Ukraine. First, the ceasefire related to energy infrastructure. And the second thing is that Mr. Trump said that they didn’t discuss security assistance to Ukraine at all. Besides the exchange of almost 200 prisoners of war and heavily wounded people, I do not see any positive outcomes from this call. 

Since the beginning of this re-invasion, Russians have been targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, and particularly in winter time, because they wanted to freeze us to death and they wanted to break our will to resist and undermine our economy. Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil infrastructure for obvious reasons, because oil infrastructure serves the military — they need to get it for tanks and jets and other equipment. They also need this oil money to come from foreign partners to fuel this war effort. So that’s why it was, from the beginning, a different type of targeting from the Ukrainian side and from the Russian side. 

I believe that we are an obstacle for this American reset [with Russia.] And that there will be a huge and long process of discussing modalities and other things. And you know that the Russians are really good at this – they can talk about details,  and in these details they will be re-engaging all those positive sides of agreement that they gave to Ukraine and they will be putting forward new conditions for this process because they understand that Trump is interested in resetting, stripping sanctions and getting lucrative deals with Russian business people. 

That’s why we’re worrying about this situation. That’s why we do not believe that this ceasefire is going to be a first step towards peace negotiations or a peace agreement. It’s not going to happen unless Putin is gone from the Kremlin.

The Cipher Brief: Where do you find reasons for hope? For one thing, new polling shows that support in the U.S. for Ukraine has gone up recently. Do you take any heart in that? 

Khara: I’m optimistic, first, because there’s always Ukrainian national unity. After the Trump events, there was also a rise in the ratings for Mr. Zelensky. Many people didn’t vote for him, and we may vote him out after the war. But now he’s a wartime leader, and that’s why we stand behind him. This is the most important thing.

The second thing is that while our defense forces are exhausted, it’s not to the level that we are ready to lay down our arms and to subjugate ourselves to Russian mercies. 

The third thing is the commitment of the European partners. There are many countries with different views. Europeans are organizing this process, to invest into Ukrainian defense and to invest in their defense and deterrence capabilities, which is absolutely amazing.

And finally, these positive figures that you mentioned — that more than two thirds of Americans either support the current level of assistance or they believe that the government needs to step it up. We are fighting for our freedom,  like Americans during the War of Independence. We are fighting against a much larger enemy, and it’s in the nature of Americans to have such a challenge. We haven’t been defeated, despite all the attacks since 2014, and we don’t have any plans to be defeated afterwards, even if the United States decides to withdraw its assistance. We are not going to give up, because otherwise we would see more Mariupol, Bucha, and other places where the Russians committed acts of genocide. And we remember our bitter history. 

Even though there is a harsh reality and devastation, particularly in those territories closer to Russia where the war is raging on, this is the perfect time for Ukraine to preserve its sovereignty and independence. 

The Cipher Brief: A question about public opinion in your country. In recent months there had been an increase in the number of Ukrainians who were willing to give up something to arrive at a peace. What is the mood now among Ukrainians, in terms of that wish for peace against what they may have to give up?

Khara: I don’t have the latest numbers at hand, but I can assure you that while there was a slight rise in those who would agree on some concessions to Russia, the majority of Ukrainians are against it. But most importantly, giving up territory and not getting into NATO, the only organizations that may provide us with long-term security, means that we are going to be vulnerable. 

So the Russians are not going to stop unless they are stopped, or Ukraine disappears from political map. I believe that the Ukrainian citizens understand this and they are not eager to exchange, let’s say an illusory peace for territories, because they understand that the Russians are not going to stop.

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