Kurdish Gains Spur New Assad Game Plan
The Syrian regime’s bombing of Syrian Kurdish forces in the country’s far northeast is a notable change in strategy, illustrating just how concerned Damascus is […] More
International
The Center of Security Discourse and Planning
In 2016, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced record-setting high temperatures. This is seen by meteorologists as part of a steady […] More
Finding Water in the Desert: Water Security in the Middle East
In 1979, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat said that “the only matter which could take Egypt to war again is water.” That war may not have […] More
A Call for Humanitarian Priorities
From 2007-2010, Syria suffered the worst drought since record-keeping. Amidst corruption and mismanagement, the drought caused crops to fail and over a million farmers abandoned […] More
Indicators of Political Instability
Why has Russia under President Vladimir Putin remained fairly stable despite worsening economic conditions? Is Zimbabwe likely to become embroiled in conflict when its 92-year […] More
How Valuable are the Indicators?
A few years ago, my colleagues and I published an article on forecasting instability in nations around the world. Two things stood out in that […] More
Measuring Levels of Fragility
For twelve years, the Fund for Peace has calculated and published the Fragile States Index (FSI), which measures state fragility around the world based on […] More
Russia-Iran Alliance: Shifting the Power Dynamic
Russia’s airstrikes into Syria from an Iranian air base mark a new phase in the relationship between the two countries. “Historically they’re not friends. They […] More
Brazil: Getting its House Back in Order Post Olympics
The Olympic Games have been a nice distraction for Brazil but will leave the country with nothing gained – the negatives balancing out the positives […] More
The Games Have Been a Distraction
With the Rio Olympics wrapping in just a few days, The Cipher Brief’s Kaitlin Lavinder spoke with Director of Research at the Rio-based Igarapé Institute, […] More
Prestige Over Policy
The Olympic Games are supposed to bring international prestige to host countries, if all goes well. But Rio 2016 is an example of a government […] More
Thailand Under the Junta
The recent series of coordinated bombings that rocked several of Thailand’s popular tourist spots occurred amid an atmosphere of heightened tension within the country. Years […] More
The Shadow Over Long Term Political-Economic Prospects
Ten years ago, Thailand was enjoying a prolonged and robust economic and political revival following the Asian Financial Crisis that decimated its economy and gave […] More
A Shift in U.S. Policy Is Needed
Since the coup of 2014, the Thai political situation has greatly deteriorated, particularly the violations of basic human rights. The U.S. government has imposed sanctions […] More
Niger Delta Militants Compound Nigeria’s Security Crises
Nigeria faces three distinct security crises, with one common thread: failure of governance. Terrorist group Boko Haram continues to wreak havoc in the north, a […] More
A Deep Sense of Grievance
Militants in the south of Nigeria – in the area known as the Niger Delta – are blowing up oil pipelines and destroying other essential […] More
The Audacity of the Niger Delta Avengers
Various assumptions have emerged in attempts to explain the resurgence of armed militancy in the Niger Delta since February. Some explanations seek to connect the […] More
Is the Islamic State on the ropes in Afghanistan?
The death of the leader of the Islamic State in Afghanistan last month was another damaging blow to the hardline group seeking to usurp authority […] More