SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — Last month, the U.S. and Niger announced that 1,000 American troops would withdraw from Niger “no later” than September 15, following an order from the military officers ruling the West African nation. The first U.S. troops left Niger last week, the beginning of the end of a significant and longstanding counterterrorism partnership in the Sahel region.
It’s also a deployment that has drawn limited public attention in the U.S. – despite the fact that it is larger than the American presence in Syria or Somalia. In 2017, when 4 U.S. special forces were killed in an ambush in Niger, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, acknowledged that he “didn’t know there was a thousand (American) troops in Niger.”
Now, some experts say the end of the U.S. mission, and withdrawal from a major drone operations base in Agadez, in central Niger, may set back counterterrorism efforts in the region.
“For the Sahel region, the withdrawal of the Agadez drone base undeniably deprives the countries of an important military partner and intelligence support,” Hassane Kone, a Senior Researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told The Cipher Brief. “The American military contributed to the training of the Sahelian armies, and the United States offered interesting support in terms of equipment,” Kone added, citing the drone facility and C-130 Hercules military transport planes that were provided to the Nigerien military.
The unraveling of the U.S. mission began after a military coup that overthrew Niger’s president, Mohamed Bazoum, last July. The country’s new leaders accused the U.S. of interfering in Niger’s domestic affairs and telling them how to run their nation, accusations that were rejected by the Biden administration. The White House threatened to cut off military assistance to Niger if civilian rule was not restored – a demand complicated by the fact that one of the coup leaders, Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, had worked with the U.S. military in Niger.
The departure spotlights the often-underreported U.S. footprint in Africa, the mission’s initial purpose, and the potential national security gap left by the troops’ departure.
A “security vacuum will be created,” Nodin Muzee, a senior counterterrorism analyst at Global Risk International, told The Cipher Brief. “And ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliated groups are waiting in the wings.”
Why the Americans were there
The U.S. military mission in Niger began on a small scale, when a group of American advisors deployed to the country soon after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. They were sent as part of a program to train and equip counterterrorism forces in several countries in the Sahel, the vast border region between Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. It was one of the smaller deployments carried out as part of the George W. Bush Administration’s post-9/11 war against terrorism.
The larger-scale mission dates to 2013, when President Barack Obama announced that 100 U.S. troops would deploy to Niger to “provide support for intelligence collection.” The American presence multiplied rapidly after that, as the Islamic State (ISIS) was defeated in Iraq and Syria and the Sahel became a safe haven for Islamist militant groups.
“When the ISIS caliphate was dismantled in Syria and Iraq, a substantial number of these extremists chose Africa as the preferred haven to flee to, given that various parts of Africa such as the Sahel region have countries that are called ‘failed states,’ with weak law and order institutions,” Muzee told The Cipher Brief. “This means ISIS and Al-Qaida affiliated extremist groups can run rampant.”
The U.S. sent special forces to train local militaries, and set up the drone base in Agadez to improve intelligence-gathering capabilities for governments in the region that were battling the militants.
Kone said the U.S. withdrawal meant that Washington was also “losing an important strategic position,” given that the Agadez base serves as an “ideal geographical position that allowed the Americans, thanks to the Reaper drones and the signals intelligence aircraft they used, to observe and monitor the entire Sahelian strip, Libya and the accesses to the Mediterranean.”
Beyond the troops, the U.S. has also provided hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to Niger for education, food security, and climate resilience. Niger is one of the world’s poorest countries; the idea behind the U.S. aid was to help the country avoid the descent to “failed state,” which held such appeal to jihadists.
The broader U.S. footprint in Africa
Other U.S. troops in Africa have headed home as well. In April, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced that it was pulling most of its 100 troops stationed in the north-central African nation of Chad, as it “works to restore key agreements” surrounding counterterrorism operations.
But the U.S. still has a prominent presence in the region. While Washington hasn’t declared a traditional war in Africa, the U.S. has set up “special operations” in tandem with several African militaries. In 2007 the U.S. established a dedicated Africa Command (AFRICOM).
Estimates suggest roughly 6,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed across Africa, most of those stationed at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, the only permanent American military base in Africa.
“The leading purpose of the U.S. government having a military presence in Africa is to deal with security threats with wide-ranging geopolitical implications,” Muzee said. “A very good example is the Suez Canal/Red Sea/Gulf of Aden waterway, which transports 30% of global container traffic. Look at the chaos that the Houthis based in Yemen created when they started launching drone and missile strikes at ships traveling through this waterway, in support of Hamas and its war with Israel.”
According to the DoD, Africa is home to home to several “ungoverned, under-governed or misgoverned areas, which attract extremist groups like Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda and the like.”
“The global community cannot say that Africa does not matter,” Muzee said. “These security problems do cause a chain reaction, and they do affect all of us whether we like it or not.”.
The Russia factor
U.S. officials say they have another adversary in the region – an enemy that has nothing to do with Islamic militants.
Russia has sent troops and mercenaries to Africa for years – most notably members of the paramilitary force long known as the Wagner Group – as a way to build its own influence in the region. The U.S. departure, and Niger’s decision to expel 1,500 French troops who were deployed alongside the U.S. forces, have new openings for the Russians. A few months after the French forces left in December, 100 Russian military instructors – reportedly belonging to the rebranded Wagner paramilitary group “Africa Corps” – arrived in Niger, along with an air defense system. Last month, a senior U.S. official told Reuters that Russian military personnel had entered an air base in Niger that was hosting U.S. troops. The official said the Russian forces were using an adjacent hangar at Airbase 101 in Niamey, Niger's capital.
“Russia’s main objective has been to spread its sphere of influence into Africa by providing military assistance when in fact, it is there to plunder the mineral resources of these African countries,” Muzee said. “The proceeds from these minerals are helping fund the war in the Ukraine. Keep in mind, Russia is under economic sanctions by the international community, and it has to find ways of bypassing these sanctions.”
Royce de Melo, a Middle East and Africa analyst and security and defense consultant, said that both Niger and Chad are “swinging toward the Russian sphere of influence” and working more closely with paramilitary forces loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“As Russia provides mercenaries for training, frontline troops, and, interestingly, as presidential guards, while providing quantities of military equipment along with large free shipments of wheat, this might put the leaders in Putin’s pocket,” de Melo told The Cipher Brief. “The Russians do whatever is necessary for what they believe is in their interests, and they do so unashamedly.”
The next move for the U.S.
Washington isn’t giving up its quest to find African partners of its own.
Given the Niger and Chad drawdowns, the U.S. is reportedly considering several alternative locations for its military presence in West Africa, including Ghana and Senegal, or potentially Togo and Benin, where it may relocate its drone operations and other military assets. Negotiations on these options are said to be in the very early stages.
In East Africa, the US is forging an unprecedented security partnership with Kenya that will also have counterterrorism at its heart.
“America is in the process of recognizing Kenya as a major non-NATO U.S. ally, the first designation of its kind for a sub-Saharan African country,” Muzee said. “Both countries have been conducting joint counterterrorism operations to degrade ISIS and al-Shabaab across East Africa.”
More broadly, Kone and others have argued that Washington needs to rethink its strategy, given that terrorism in Africa has actually grown despite the military presence of the U.S. and allied forces. Nearly half (48%) of all global terrorism deaths occurred in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022, according to the United Nations. As of mid-2023, militant groups held wide swaths of territory in the region, including about 40 percent of Burkina Faso, Niger’s neighbor to the west. And according to the “Global Terrorism Index 2023,” the Sahel region is now considered the epicenter of global terrorism.
“It must be recognized that their presence, as well as that of other foreign troops, for more than ten years, had not succeeded in reversing the trend of insecurity,” Kone said. “Terrorist groups have continued to act and have even extended their reach beyond the Sahel.”
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