The crisis in Catalonia is reaching a decision point as the Spanish senate gets ready to vote on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s proposal to use Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution for the first time in its 40-year history to impose direct rule on the region.
The proposal from Rajoy’s emergency cabinet meeting last Saturday stops short of dissolving Catalonia’s parliament, but it would remove the region’s cabinet leaders and replace top officials in the police force, amongst other measures. It also called for new regional elections to be held within six months.
In response to the cabinet’s decision to invoke Article 155, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont – whose government held the independence referendum on October 1 – has called a session of the Catalonian Parliament. Many suspect that Puigdemont will take this opportunity to double down and ask the regional parliament to vote on a declaration of independence in the coming days or weeks, further escalating the crisis.
This impasse has its roots in a long history of separatist sentiment in Catalonia, which has its own language, flag and national anthem. Since the implementation of democratic rule in Spain over 40 years ago, Catalonia’s regional government has enjoyed semi-autonomy with its own parliament, police force and administrative institutions, including independent healthcare and education systems.
Nevertheless, the idea of full independence from Spain has been a consistent feature of Catalan politics, culminating in the decision by Catalonia’s parliament to hold a referendum on October 1, despite the vote’s suspension by Spain’s Supreme Court.
Boycotted by Catalans who oppose independence, outlawed by the Spanish central government, and marred by clashes between police – ordered to disrupt the plebiscite – and voters, the referendum was “a complete sham as an election event… and international observers have verified that this was not a process that had any real democratic legitimacy,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute and expert on European separatist movements.
Nevertheless, Catalan authorities claim that the referendum was legitimate and that 90 percent of Catalonians voted for independence. Puigdemont has said that this gives his government a “mandate” to “follow the people’s will for Catalonia to become an independent state,” although he has not yet asked the Catalan parliament to declare independence.
The Spanish government, on the other hand, views the referendum as illegal and unrepresentative. “Catalonia’s leaders have not respected the legality underpinning our democracy, nor the general interests to which our laws respond,” said a source in the Spanish government, explaining why Rajoy has decided to invoke Article 155.
Now, the biggest question is how Puigdemont and the nationalist Catalan government will react when the Spanish senate almost certainly approves Article 155 this Friday, and whether he will preempt the dissolution of his government with a unilateral declaration of Catalan independence.
Judging from the statements of top Catalan officials, it seems likely that the nationalist government in Barcelona will respond to the imposition of direct rule from Madrid with a civil disobedience campaign. This would force the central government to forcibly assert control over regional administration, possibly sparking a confrontation that Catalan nationalists hope could bolster support for secession.
However, “such a strategy will ultimately fail for two reasons,” said Kirkegaard. “One, it is clear that the Spanish government continues to have the full support of all of the EU…. Two, the economic damage to Catalonia itself may be quite substantial.”
Catalonia is the richest region in Spain, and nationalist politicians have long argued that the region would be better off on its own without having to bankroll poorer parts of the country. However, this rationale has taken a beating during this crisis. Banco de Sabadelle and CaixaBank – the two largest banks headquartered in Catalonia – have already announced intentions to leave the region following the crisis, and prolonged demonstrations and clashes could lead more businesses to flee. Meanwhile, the European Union has shown steadfast support for Spanish unity, which means that Barcelona will likely stay isolated as the crisis continues unless Madrid violently overreacts.
However, “one important point to keep in mind is that Article 155 is very difficult to put into practice because the Catalonian administrative government is quite autonomous,” said Marc Gafarot, a public affairs consultant and specialist in secessionist movements who is based in Barcelona. “Only nine percent of the civil servants in Catalonia work for the central government, and the rest work mainly for the regional government of Catalonia or the local municipalities.”
And the central government has only given itself a timeline of less than six months to impose direct control while new regional elections take place.
The Rajoy government has also made clear that it no longer recognizes the legitimacy of the current Catalonian government. The Article 155 announcement only underlines this point, suggesting that there is little appetite for negotiation on the part of Madrid. Instead, Rajoy may be content waiting for elections and a new Catalan government to negotiate with, leaving Puigdemont little choice but to go down the path of civil disobedience.
“The problem is like a snowball on both sides, it is hard to stop it from getting bigger and bigger,” said Gafarot. “It is a very difficult situation to control. The more courageous, resolute and resilient player will be the winner.”
Fritz Lodge is a Middle East and international economics analyst at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @FritzLodge.
