In an electoral season with no shortage of drama, the recent resignation of Donald Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, brought even more scrutiny to Russia’s intense interest in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Manafort’s past lobbying efforts for pro-Russian elements in Ukraine drew unwanted attention to a Trump campaign already seen as having too many pro-Russia ties. This comes just weeks after the revelation that Hillary Clinton’s campaign had suffered a cybsersecurity breach and that Russian hackers were the likely culprit. The hack on the Democratic National Committee (DNC), if definitively attributed to Russia, could indicate that Moscow is not only interested in the U.S. presidential election, but perhaps even interested in manipulating it. Moscow’s heightened interest in the next president comes at a time of the greatest tension between Russia and the U.S. since the end of the Cold War.
Obama’s first-term relationship with Russia was characterized by an attempt to reset relations in 2009. While the decision did produce cooperation on sanctions against Iran and halted U.S. plans for a missile defense shield in Europe, the reset proved to be ineffective in the long term and has since been overshadowed by deteriorating relations with the Kremlin.
Any remaining hope for a reset in relations was dashed with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in February 2014. The Obama administration responded with sanctions against Russia’s oil and gas sectors and subsequently expanded them in scope as Russian aggression in Ukraine continued. In March 2016, Obama signed an executive order prolonging the sanctions for another year. It will be up to the next administration to decide whether the sanctions will continue. In his remaining time in office, it is expected that Obama will remain inflexible and strongly opposed to Russia’s presence in Crimea, but he is unlikely to undertake additional measures to try to end the annexation.
Another U.S.-Russia foreign policy hurdle came with Russia’s intervention into the Syrian Civil War in September 2015. Whereas the U.S. came off as indecisive when Obama backtracked on his “red line” ultimatum threatening a U.S. military attack on Syria if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s were to use chemical weapons, Russia’s successful military operations have restored its image as a world leader capable of projecting its power, all in spite of a flagging economy and Western sanctions. The success and continuation of Russia’s operations persuaded the Obama administration to consider greater cooperation with Moscow.
Most recently, relations between the two countries have been strained by the DNC hack and its attribution to Russia by the U.S. intelligence community. The hack highlights the threats espoused by security and defense experts about Russia’s formidable cyber capabilities and, at worst, suggests Russia is trying to influence the U.S. election and the next administration. According to former Head of Global Security at Goldman-Sachs Rob Dannenberg, stealing such information “…would illustrate the focus Putin is already putting on understanding possible results of the election and laying the groundwork for influencing whichever administration comes into office in January 2017.”
Obama’s comments on the hack have been reserved for the most part. He has not publicly mentioned Russian motivations, but he did state that Trump expresses admiration for Putin and that Russia would stand to benefit from a Trump victory. Additionally, he has taken no action against Russia over the DNC hack. This may be in part because the difficulty of confirming attribution in cybercrime also makes it difficult to respond or retaliate. Without more conclusive evidence, the issue is likely to remain unresolved between the two nations, while remaining a hot topic of debate as election day draws nearer.
As part of The Cipher Brief’s continuing series on how other nations view the U.S. Presidential election, today we’ll hear how experts believe Moscow views the prospective presidents. Rob Dannenberg, an independent consultant and former CIA senior official, takes a look at how the Kremlin views Donald Trump, and Hannah Thoburn, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, examines Russia’s relationship with Hillary Clinton.
Will Edwards is an international producer at The Cipher Brief.
