Most Americans agree that the 2016 presidential election is one of the strangest in their history – and it looks like that feeling extends beyond U.S. borders. Governments worldwide want to know who will be at the helm of the world’s largest economy and military, and they are learning all they can to prepare for the next commander in chief.
China, as a rising power, is surely considering the potential strategic and economic effects of both candidates’ positions.
And there has never been a U.S. election with such a stark contrast in experience and political positions between the two candidates. While Hillary Clinton is a well-known political figure with a long history of policy decisions on China, Donald Trump is known in China only for his business dealings and his shrewd businessman reality TV persona –Trump even started a Chinese version of his show, The Apprentice, in 2005.
The next American president will face a complicated set of policy issues related to China and must decide to build on or change course from the policies of the Obama administration.
The South China Sea
The area of clearest disparity between the two candidates and the one of greatest concern to China is the issue of U.S. presence in East Asia, and more specifically, the South China Sea. The next president will inherit Obama’s mixed legacy on the “Pivot to Asia.” Though his administration successfully strengthened relationships with Vietnam, the Philippines, and India, one of the original goals – freedom of navigation in the South China Sea—is far from secure.
Shoring up regional alliances and conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) will be the legacy of Obama’s South China Sea policy, but China has been quick to point out to its neighbors that, while Beijing’s commitment to the region will never be in doubt, the U.S.’s commitment can change from one administration to the next.
Human Rights
In the government’s eyes, Clinton remains infamous for her 1995 speech given in Beijing on women’s rights. A sticking point in China-U.S. relations has long been the Chinese view that the U.S. should not conflate domestic issues such as human rights with international agreements.
The Obama administration, along with the Bush and Clinton administration before it, made frequent and public calls for China to improve its human rights record. While Obama’s stance has not been viewed as particularly firm, Chinese policymakers will be keen to know how this issue will change in the next administration.
Trade
China has prospered in recent years from its trade surplus with the United States and its depressed currency value. While the Obama administration has publicly recognized the yuan as an undervalued currency, it has never gone so far as to label China a currency manipulator. Beijing will be keen to know whether it can expect the trade and currency policies to continue under the next president.
China also closely watches the fate of the Trans Pacific Partnership in the U.S. Congress. While China has warmed to the TPP in recent years, it still does not relish the thought of a trade bloc dominated by the U.S. and Japan. The TPP, which was conceived while Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, would conflict with China’s preference for bilateral trade relationships that allow it to use its economic size to its advantage.
Which candidate best suits Beijing’s interests? Today on The Cipher Brief, Network Expert Gordon Chang examines Donald Trump through the eyes of the Chinese leadership; Bower Group Asia CEO and President Ernie Bower and Research Director Will Heidlage address Hillary Clinton’s long history with the Chinese Communist Party.
In the lead up to inauguration day, China is likely to push its agenda in the South China Sea and elsewhere so as to have a stronger position for negotiation with the next president. In doing so, experts point out that Beijing should remember that the president, whoever it may be, answers to the electorate and that public opinion often changes the decision-making calculus of an administration; the same rhetoric that elects a president will not always be the rhetoric that sustains his or her popularity. Furthermore, campaign promises often are forgotten or ignored once the reality of governing sets in. China’s actions now and in the near future will have an impact on public opinion in the U.S. and on the choices the U.S. president will have to make.
Will Edwards is an international producer at The Cipher Brief.
