EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — When The Cipher Brief looked at the global security landscape for 2025, Greenland didn’t rate a mention. That was probably true of new year’s forecasts made by many organizations, but in the past couple of weeks, President-elect Donald Trump has put the world‘s largest island squarely into the national security conversation.
“For purposes of national security and freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” Trump wrote in a late-December post. This week he spoke of a “deal” to take over Greenland, and then said he wouldn’t rule out the use of force to make it happen. While his son Donald Trump, Jr., paid a visit to Greenland Tuesday, the President-elect said that “Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation."
Why the sudden attention? Greenland is mineral-rich and strategically located in the North Atlantic edge of the Arctic. For more than six centuries, Greenland has been part of Denmark, though it was granted substantial autonomy in 2009. Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede has said repeatedly that the island is not for sale, Denmark has rejected Trump's offer to buy it, and while many in Greenland have pushed for independence from Denmark, Greenland’s Finance Minister said this week that “our ambition is not to go from being governed by one country to another.”
Meanwhile, in his farewell tour as America’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Blinken told a Paris news conference that “the idea expressed about Greenland is obviously not a good one, but maybe more important, it’s obviously one that’s not going to happen.”
To better understand these latest developments, as well the national security importance of Greenland to the United States, we turned to General Philip Breedlove, a Cipher Brief expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe. During his long military career, Gen. Breedlove visited Greenland often, in large part because the U.S. has maintained military facilities there since the 1950s, at the invitation of the governments of Greenland and Denmark.
General Breedlove likened Greenland to Turkey – “It’s location, location, location,” he said, referring to their geopolitical importance in economic and military terms. As for Trump's latest statements, he said, “I would have preferred that we would be having these kinds of conversations with the people of Greenland and Denmark in a more reserved way, out of the public eye, but it's in the public eye now.”
General Breedlove spoke Wednesday with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. Their conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Nagorski: General Breedlove, looking at the year ahead, I didn't think one of our first conversations would be about Greenland, but here we are. I wonder if you could just start - as a baseline - I'm not sure everybody knows why Greenland matters so much from a national security perspective. What do we need to know on that front?
Gen. Breedlove: Well, it's sort of like when you're talking to a real estate person these days, what is the first thing that comes out of their mouth? It’s location, location, location. And much like Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greenland in the Northern Atlantic is the prime land when it comes to location, location, location.
This has to do with several military factors. The first is this growing thing we call the Northern or Northwest Passage, where – whether you believe in climate change or not, the ice is receding. And as the ice recedes in the north, the passage opens up for longer and longer every year, whereby commercial as well as military craft can go through there. And from the ports of Europe to Asia is 14 days on that Northern Passage – which is way faster than going through the Mediterranean and around through the [Panama] Canal.
And secondarily, from most northern U.S. ports, it's about a 20-day transit. So when you save time like that, it is money. It means you can turn your capital ships around faster. This is a big commercial deal. And that's why we see China so interested in buying land in the Arctic Circle. They want to be on the Arctic Council. They want to be able to dictate terms to everyone else in the Arctic about how it will be used.
Of course, Russia is looking to Greenland for a much different set of issues, primarily military control, extracting tax money, duty for the use of the Northern Passage, et cetera. Many in the world have never heard of what we call the GIUK Gap, which is essentially that body of water to the east of Greenland – “GIUK,” as in Greenland, Iceland, UK - into the northern waters on the north side of Russia. And this is where all of their strategic Navy is, all of their big capital ships, all of this passes in and out of the GIUK Gap as it's going into the Atlantic Ocean. So Russia is extremely keen to be able to use that gap to their advantage, and certainly not have somebody like America sitting on top of that. And then one more quick thing: Just think about Russia and the United States. In between them in the North is Greenland. So for whatever missile defense shield we might need in the future, this is prime territory.
Everyone needs a good nightcap. Ours happens to come in the form of a M-F newsletter that provides the best way to unwind while staying up to speed on national security. (And this Nightcap promises no hangover or weight gain.) Sign up today.
Nagorski: Can you talk a little bit about what the United States has now, and has had for a long time, in terms of military assets on Greenland?
Gen. Breedlove: Our one base, we used to call it Thule, and it now has an Inuit name, an indigenous name: Pituffik [Space Base] now is the name of that base. And this is a big modern base. We've invested a lot of money in it in the past. We don't have a lot of forces on it, but we maintain hangar facilities, runway facilities, we’ve maintained taxiways, all of the things to give us access to that base. There have been times when we've had NATO missions on that base and we're doing air defense and air definition and describing the context of the Northern airspaces from that base, with radars, et cetera. So this base is strategically very important to the United States. And derivatively, it is strategically important to NATO.
Nagorski: And as I understand it, it serves among other things as a kind of early warning system.
Gen. Breedlove: Yes. It’s a part of our radar system, and does sensing for air traffic and missile sensing in the north.
Nagorski: President-elect Trump said that “for purposes of national security and freedom throughout the world, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.” You've just made clear why a presence there is important. What difference if any would, to use his words, "ownership and control" over Greenland make?
Gen. Breedlove: I really don't like to do politics, so I'll try to cast this answer in a non-political way. I think it is important that Greenland has been an integral part of the West, and the Danes and others who have influence there, have been an integral part of the West.
Now it is also clear that China has been pushing very hard to get land so that they get somewhere in the Arctic Circle, so that they can become an Arctic nation and sit on the Arctic Council. And so guaranteeing a Western-leaning Greenland is extremely important. I don't believe that that has to be through sovereign ownership.
But the fact of the matter is we need to have the ability to work with the people of Greenland in a way that assures that they will remain on side, if you want to use a soccer term. And the problem here is like so many other places in the world, China and Russia will throw money at this problem. And when you have a nation like Greenland, they need money for investment.
The United States has more than once tried to buy Greenland. At the end of World War II, we offered $100 million for Greenland. And so this is not the first time that there has been these conversations. I would have preferred that we would be having these kinds of conversations with the people of Greenland and Denmark in a more reserved way, out of the public eye, but it's in the public eye now.
Nagorski: Greenland was once a colony of Denmark, and it is now a part of Denmark, and Denmark, of course, is a NATO ally. As I understand it, U.S. relations with Greenland and Denmark have been quite good, right?
Gen. Breedlove: They have, and that's why it's a little hard to see that we're having this sort of rough public conversation with people who are friends. I believe that we can do this, and maybe accomplish what we need to do via several options, in a quiet conversation with the people of Greenland and Denmark.
My own association [with Greenland] began when I was the third Air Force commander in Europe. And then when I was the U.S. Air Force's commander in Europe, and we had airplanes and air defense detachments and all these things that would rotate in and out of then-Thule Air Base. So we have been working with this country and these people for a long time. They are wonderful people, hospitable people, and they've always been very welcoming of how we help to maintain the Air Base.
Nagorski: To use your phrase, this isn't now a “quiet conversation,” and the President-elect has said he’s not ruling out use of the military to take Greenland if necessary. And officials in Greenland and Denmark have said it's not going to happen. So what now? Is a "quiet conversation" still possible?
Gen. Breedlove: I think it needs to become a quiet conversation. And yes, if we all decided to do that, we could do that. The idea that one NATO country would impose its will on another NATO country is quite interesting. So I think that we have rational people who can sit down and work this out as we move forward. It is incredibly important that we do not allow Russian and Chinese influence to grow in this great country, on this island. And it is important that we continue to have a relationship with an ally, no matter how the conversation plays out. That's incredibly important.
Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? Watch expert-level discussions on The Middle East, Russia, China and the other top stories dominating the headlines.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
