The Syrian Ceasefire: Faulty Foundation, Low Optimism

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On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a nationwide ceasefire in Syria would begin at midnight on Thursday night. This is the third such agreement this year – all other negotiated ceasefires have failed – but this deal will be enforced by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, the largest international supporters of both regime and anti-regime forces in the country. The Cipher Brief asked Network Member Emile Nakhleh, a former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service, to continue his analysis of Syria from last week in light of these developments. He told us that he was not optimistic about the ceasefire, because it is based on multiple incorrect assumptions about the future of Syria itself.

 

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