Two weeks have passed since the close of North Korea’s 7th Workers’ Party Congress and, for the moment, the country’s streak of provocations that kicked off 2016 have abated. On Friday, Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released an official statement from the National Defense Commission calling for military talks with Seoul to reduce tensions between the neighboring countries. In this regard, most of the blame lays with North Korea. In a drawn out preamble to the congress, Pyongyang made a spectacle of its military prowess by testing a nuclear weapon, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and a submarine launched missile among other advanced missile technologies. Korea watchers believe the rationale for the provocations is to legitimize Kim Jong-un’s regime by displaying his ability to defend North Korea’s sovereignty.
The pace of weapons demonstrations observed in the first months of 2016 fit the narrative Kim wove throughout his many speeches at the congress: North Korea will defend itself with its technological advances, especially with its nuclear arms. However, a related message that was less obvious was that of using technology to advance the economy and wellbeing of the country. These vague allusions to harnessing the will of the people and applying their technological acumen to the prosperity of the nation culminated in a loosely defined five-year plan for economic growth. Though lacking specifics, the plan’s unveiling is significant.
North Korea has not enacted a five-year economic plan since the reign of Kim Il Sung, the nation’s founding father. The younger Kim’s five-year plan is likely to be part of his goal of shifting the balance of power from the military to the party, reversing the policy of his late father. Given North Korea’s awful track record of economic reform, this could prove problematic.
By announcing the five-year plan as his premier policy as the new party chairman, Kim has put his reputation on the line for the sake of economic progress. Kim’s legitimacy is now tied tighter to the country’s economic performance than ever before. If the economy does not grow, he will likely return to what he knows already works: displaying martial strength. If the five-year plan cannot deliver, we should expect an increased tempo of provocative missile and weapons technology tests.
Will Edwards is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
