What Prigozhin’s March Taught Us About Putin’s Russia
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING & EXPERT ANALYSIS – Just a week after Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched the final mission of his mercenary career in the […] More
Ukraine
Prigozhin’s Revolt is not the End for Putin, but it’s the Beginning of the End
OPINION — Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s march on Moscow did not topple Russian President Vladimir Putin, but the revolt put forces in motion that […] More
China’s Ukraine Gambit – ‘Win-win’ or ‘Lose-lose?’
OPINION — The recent London Ukraine Recovery conference has highlighted the necessity and importance of looking past the war, Ukraine’s currently stalled counter-offensive, and a […] More
Putin And Prigozhin Are Taking Us All For A Ride
OPINION — A firestorm of analysis, opinions and speculation has been unleashed on all of us attempting to understand and explain what the “aborted coup” […] More
Prigozhin’s Mutiny: A Reminder About Analytic Humility
OPINION — It appears that the U.S. Intelligence Community scored a success in warning senior leaders that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning some sort of […] More
U.S. Soldiers in Poland Are Helping Ukraine, Albeit With Slimmed-Down Training
OPINION — In Jasionka, Poland, a small town of 2,700 just 60 miles west of the Ukraine border, a little-publicized unit of U.S. soldiers from […] More
Russian Mutiny Ushers In Morale Boost for Kyiv, as Ukrainian Forces Make “Steady Progress”
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — On the outskirts of the battle-worn eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, where Russia’s most effective mercenary force once tallied Moscow’s most […] More
The Global Consequences of Russia’s Revolt
SUBSCRIBER+ EXPERT INTERVIEW – When an armed force of Russian mercenaries seized command centers and advanced toward Moscow, the effects set off a chain of events that […] More
Putin Faces His Most Serious Threat to Power, Even as Wagner Chief Halts March on Moscow
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — In a brief address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed not to “allow a civil war,” evoking the Russian […] More
Putin and the Million Dollar Questions for Intelligence Analysts
CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT ANALYSIS – With Ukraine now solidly into its long-awaited counteroffensive, western leaders are looking for signs of what impact the new actions […] More
A Life of Secrets: A Candid Conversation with Michael Vickers
Subscriber+Exclusive Interview — In his new book, By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy, former Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence […] More
Exclusive Interview: Be Ready for a Fierce and Protracted Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Subscriber+Exclusive Interview — With Ukraine’s unmistakable blue-and-yellow colors now flying atop the rubble of the newly liberated village of Neskuchne in Ukraine’s embattled Donetsk Oblast, […] More
Intel Report from Ukraine as it launches Counteroffensive
CIPHER BRIEF INTEL REPORT — During a recent visit to Kyiv centered around The Cipher Brief’s Kyiv Economic and Security Forum, a small Cipher Brief […] More
Ukraine Enlists Local Drone Makers in War Effort
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING (KYIV) – After a near constant barrage of Russian missile attacks targeting Kyiv over the past several weeks, a wave of drones […] More
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Offers Golden Opportunity to Overcome Its History
The mood in Kyiv is relentlessly upbeat. This is a moment for Westerners to suppress their anxieties and support the counteroffensive. There will be moments […] More
War-fighting Is Getting a Fresh Look, With an AI Focus
OPINION — “As service chief, we all have, you know, a dual obligation to make sure that the force can do what the combatant commanders […] More
Managing Expectations for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the U.S. has allocated more than $75 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian support to Kyiv, in […] More
Exclusive Interview: Ukraine and Beyond Through the Lens of U.S. Military Intelligence
SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The battle for Bakhmut, where Russian paramilitaries have been leading an eight-month effort to take the symbolically significant Ukrainian city, was widely expected to […] More