Nagorno and Karabakh on the Map
Cipher Brief Expert Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. His work included postings in Lagos, Istanbul […] More
Posts Tagged ‘conflict’
The Social Media Weapons of Authoritarian States
Bottom Line Up Front Conflict is no longer relegated strictly to the physical battlefield but extends through cyberspace, often manifesting in social media disinformation […] More
Big Data and Drone Tech Can Help Fight Famine
Hunger and political instability go hand in hand. Fighting and droughts across Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, and parts of Nigeria have caused dire situations and […] More
Hot and Hungry Cities: The Future of Urban Food Wars
This century will be defined by two trends: how we manage climate change and how we manage the rise of megacities. Over the next 20 […] More
Starvation Serves as a Weapon for Dictators and Terrorists
The United States is confronted with security challenges on a daily basis, from unending terrorist attacks to adversaries positioning themselves on the geopolitical and global […] More
Conflict Minerals: The Dark Side of the Digital Age Electronics Boom
With the advent of digital communications, people thousands of miles apart can engage with each other seamlessly, and businesses can operate at a scale previously […] More
Natural Security Series: How Drought Set the Stage for War in Syria
The U.S. withdrawal from the COP21 Paris Agreement has given new life to the debate around the consequences of climate change. The Trump Administration has […] More
Peacekeeping Cuts Jeopardize Central African Republic
BANGUI, Central African Republic – Since May 8, fighting in the southeastern city of Bangassou, the southern town of Alindao and the central mining town […] More
Why Fragile States Matter
After the stunning collapse of the Iranian regime in 1979, country risk analysts everywhere became desirous of some method to better calculate the risk of […] More
The 2017 Fragile States Index: Insight Beyond the Headlines
The Fragile States Index is a remarkable and welcome document in this era of instant national security analysis, delivered in 24/7 soundbites. With the Index, […] More
UN Peacekeeping Under the Knife?
UN peacekeeping is rarely headline news, but when the Trump Administration announced in March that it was seeking to make cuts of $1 billion in […] More
2017 Fragile States Index: Early Warnings Amidst "Jarring" Results
When it comes to the world’s most fragile states, two of the wealthiest and most-developed countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, would not […] More
Fragile States Index Reveals Grievance in Unexpected Places
What is the most stable country in the world? Which is the most fragile? What determines those qualities? In 2017, South Sudan was ranked the most […] More
Changing the UN will be Difficult
From the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union in 2015, to the protectionist rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump, the concepts of multilateralism […] More
Growing Skepticism of the UN
The United Nations is at an important point in history, where growing skepticism of multilateral institutions and the current liberal international order led by the […] More
The New Technology of Humanitarian Assistance
Since the first CIA Predator drone strike in October 2001, the United States, among others, has sought to expand the technology to facilitate remote warfare. […] More
The Haunting Images from Syria: A review of "A Whole World Blind"
The fighting in Syria – and ever-rising death toll of civilians caught in the middle – is so horrifying that many seemingly have chosen to […] More
Security Dynamics Amidst Africa's Armed Conflicts
There has been a downward trend in large-scale warfare on the African continent since the number of wars peaked in the mid 1990s. However, new […] More
How Valuable are the Indicators?
A few years ago, my colleagues and I published an article on forecasting instability in nations around the world. Two things stood out in that […] More
Measuring Levels of Fragility
For twelve years, the Fund for Peace has calculated and published the Fragile States Index (FSI), which measures state fragility around the world based on […] More
Indicators of Political Instability
Why has Russia under President Vladimir Putin remained fairly stable despite worsening economic conditions? Is Zimbabwe likely to become embroiled in conflict when its 92-year […] More