President Donald Trump cancelled a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina last month, choosing that method of protest over publicly pressuring the Russian leader over the incident.
National security experts are calling on U.S. President Donald Trump to publicly affirm U.S. support for Ukraine as a means to influence Russian behavior in the Sea of Azov, a crucial conflict point between Russia and Ukraine.
BOTTOM LINE:
International efforts to de-escalate a crisis between Russia and Ukraine are underway as Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to bow to international pressure to release the Ukrainian ships and crew, raising the possibility of further escalation.
BACKGROUND:
- The Sea of Azov is an inland sea located in the northern corner of The Black Sea.
- Russian warships carrying Russian special forces known as ‘Spetznatz’ seized two Ukrainian ships and a tugboat vessel on Nov. 25, taking 24 Ukrainian sailors into custody and accusing them of illegally entering Russian waters, according to the Ukrainian Navy.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has resisted calls to release the sailors and vessels and a Kremlin spokesman says Russian authorities are ‘investigating’ the incident.
- Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says that Russia has close to 80,000 troops, 1,400 artillery systems, 900 tanks, 2,300 armored vehicles, 500 airplanes and nearly 300 helicopters stationed in parts of Ukraine.
- Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed the Crimean Peninsula, which runs along the southwestern edge of the Sea of Asov.
- The U.S. has responded to Russian aggression against Ukraine by imposing sanctions levied on Moscow.
Michael Sulick, Former Director, CIA National Clandestine Service
“Putin's foreign policy often follows the maxim attributed to Lenin: "Probe with bayonets; if you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw." The recent skirmish seems to reflect that policy — the Russians have been gradually pushing Ukraine in the Sea of Azov since they built a bridge across the Kerch straits and have encountered nothing but mush. The attack on the Ukrainian ships, however, is an escalation of the tension between the two nations and is undoubtedly designed by the Kremlin in part for domestic purposes, i.e., creating a crisis to appeal to national pride at a time when the President's popularity has plummeted because of the proposed hike in retirement age."
Daniel Hoffman, Former CIA Chief of Station
“Russia annexed Crimea, they've been providing military support to the separatists in Donbass. Massive cyber attacks against Ukraine. I think the condemnation, immediate condemnation from Pompeo and Ambassador Nikki Haley was really important. Now it's over to President Trump to do the same thing. Putin knows that ... He's playing a game, a dangerous one, maybe. A risky one.”
Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO
“So many wars have begun with seemingly small actions at sea, where decision makers incorrectly assume the stakes are lower because land territory isn’t immediately involved. The lesson of the Gulf of Tonkin is unfortunately instructive here. Nobody had heard of that body of water either — until it pulled the United States into the war in Vietnam.”
LOOKING AHEAD: The U.S. should provide additional, tangible support to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression until such behavior begins to change.
Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO
“In addition to anti-air tactical systems, ammunition, radars, communications devices and the like, America should also provide appropriate levels of training and advising, using NATO as a vehicle to do so.”
Daniel Hoffman, Former CIA Chief of Station
“The U.S. needs to take stronger measures than just verbal rebuke of Russia. There's got to be increased military intelligence support to Ukraine so that we can help them deter future aggression. Russia is clearly trying to strangle Ukraine's economic lifeline, which runs through the Kerch Strait into the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.”
Michael Sulick, Former Director, CIA National Clandestine Service
“The U.S. and NATO could back up their finger wagging condemnations with some steel — advising the Russians that any further incident will trigger the provision of additional military aid to the Ukraine, particularly radar to facilitate monitoring of activities in the Sea of Azov and, as an even stronger message, land-based anti-ship missiles. The U.S. has already provided the Ukraine with anti-tank missiles, the Russians balked but there was no significant escalation of the conflict.”
See also: What Scares Vladimir Putin? by Cipher Brief Expert Robert Dannenberg.
Courtesy: Cipher Brief Expert Admiral (Ret.) James Stavridis first made his above comments in TIME. You can read his full article, ‘President Trump Could Help Stop a War Between Russia and Ukraine But Only If He Will Stand Up to Putin’.
Click here for more expert insights from Cipher Brief Experts Michael Sulick, Daniel Hoffman and Adm. James Stavridis.
