Last week, the world learned of the unprecedented revelation that Russia was using Iran’s Hamadan military base to launch strikes into Syria. This week, that operation has already come to an end. Tehran announced Russia had stopped using its base. Moscow said it had completed its operation anyway.
But it all came amidst somewhat of an outcry from Iranian lawmakers, claiming the Russian strikes breached the country’s constitution, which forbids a “foreign military base in Iran.” That was quickly dismissed by other Iranian officials, including the Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Ghasemi, who said “Russia has neither any base, nor has it been stationed in Iran” and that the strikes were “a temporary job.”
Iranian officials were eager to show their country’s sovereignty was not at risk, but analysts say it doesn’t close the door to future Russia-Iran cooperation.
“The Iranian response is typical in order to show the home audience that the Persian nation stands tall by pulling out historical references. This reaction is done on purpose as part of Iranian domestic politics,” says Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor to Gulf State Analytics. “The fact remains that when the time becomes expedient again to use Hamadan, Russia will have no problem.”
Russia’s airstrikes into Syria from Hamadan last week marked a new phase in the relationship between the two countries.
“Historically they’re not friends. They have been competitors, sometimes even rivals in the region. There’s a long history of rivalry in Central Asia,” says Anna Borshchevskaya, Ira Weiner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “What we’ve seen happen in recent years is that they’ve developed mutual interests.”
Namely, Syria. Russia and Iran are two of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s strongest allies. And both have worried about the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), which is both traditionally anti-Shia and anti-Russian. “This looks to be an increasingly pro-Shia alliance,” says Borshchevskaya. “It looks to me that Putin is creating a block in the Middle East from which he can confront the West.”
The Iranian base would certainly add to Russia’s military options in the Middle East and further project its power in the region. Until now, its only base in the region has been near the Syrian city of Tartus, an area protected by the Assad regime.
For Iran, the Russian strikes mark the first time since 1979 that a foreign power has been allowed to use its military base, sending a strong signal that Tehran would align its interests to achieve its greater goal of maintaining a stronghold in the Levant.
But when Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani said last week that the cooperation between Tehran-Moscow was “strategic” and that it was about exchanging “capacities and potentialities in this field,” Washington tried to play it down.
“It’s unfortunate but not surprising or unexpected,” said the U.S. State Department Deputy Spokesman Mark Toner last Tuesday, adding that U.S. military officials had been given short notice of the strikes.
He went on to reiterate Washington’s position on Russia’s stance in Syria. “I think it speaks to the continuation of a pattern that we’ve seen of Russia continuing to carry out airstrikes,” said Toner. “And now it appears with Iran’s direct assistance that at least purport to target ISIL and Da’esh (ISIS) targets as well as Nusra targets, but in fact, and we’ve seen this continually, predominantly target moderate Syrian opposition forces. So that’s unfortunate.”
It comes at a critical time for Washington, and the Russia-Iran alliance could potentially shift the power dynamic in the Middle East once again.
Relations between Washington and Russia have grown increasingly frosty since their differences over Ukraine. Relations with Iran have improved somewhat after the U.S.-led nuclear deal last July under which Tehran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for an easing of sanctions. But the Iran alliance with Russia could now complicate the relationship between Western allies and Tehran.
“How this conundrum will play out and affect the U.S. and EU relationship with Iran is that any solutions will now be resolved through Moscow,” says Karasik. “That potential fact carries serious strategic challenges.”
Challenges particularly for the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), who have long been allies of the West but are increasingly concerned about Iran’s rising influence in the region.
“Iran wants to show that they are able partners with the Russians and that they are a force to be reckoned with in the current geopolitical atmosphere,” says Karasik. “For the GCC states who are watching this, this is a nightmare for them that Russia is using Iran as a base to launch airstrikes, because this action opens up questions about Iran's future integration into a regional security organization.”
Despite concerns from their allies and ideological differences, for now Washington recognizes both Russia and Iran’s roles in finding a lasting peace in Syria, a factor Moscow and Tehran are banking on.
“Russia, along with Iran, and preparing for “The Day After” in the Levant,” says Karasik. "The Russians are playing a strategic game in order to carry favor with particular allies to guarantee that the Kremlin will always be at the negotiating table in a robust position when Da’esh (ISIS) is ejected.”
Leone Lakhani is executive producer and a reporter at The Cipher Brief.
