DEEP DIVE – As the U.S. begins a direct engagement with Russia for the first time in more than three years, and Ukrainians and other Europeans worry about the consequences, Russian media outlets appear to have been as surprised as the rest of the world by the pace of Washington's pivot to Moscow. Prominent Russian broadcasts and websites that not long ago produced a steady diet of diatribes against the U.S. – and even calls for nuclear attacks against the West – have in the last few days turned to quoting Donald Trump in glowing terms and praising the new U.S. approach. Among the objects of praise have been Trump’s willingness to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (he called him a “dictator“ Wednesday) and Trump’s false charge that Ukraine started the war.
In the wake of these developments, The Cipher Brief spoke with three Russian expatriates who now live in the West and study the patterns and impact of Russian media and propaganda: Vasily Gatov, a fellow at the Center for Communication Policy and Leadership at USC; Ksenia Kirillova, a scholar and analyst at the Jamestown Foundation; and Stanislaw Kucher, a former Russian TV anchor who now serves as editor-in-chief of Samizdat Online. They offered their own reactions to the sharp shifts in U.S. policy, as well as their assessments of the Russian media response, which have generally cheered the changes. But they also noted that an end to the war may be problematic for the Kremlin in some ways – a view that has also been reflected in the media coverage.
The interviews were conducted by Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. The excerpts below have been edited for length and clarity. You can watch the full interviews at The Cipher Brief YouTube channel.
Gatov: On a personal level, I am very disappointed and disgusted with what has been happening in America in the last few days with regard to the war in Ukraine and this unexpected flip in the attitude towards Moscow, and Putin in particular. On the other hand, as an analyst, it's a very interesting thing to look at, because it was really unexpected. We expected some changes in American policy towards Ukraine and Russia, but not to that extent. So I follow this with disgust on a personal level and great interest on a professional level.
Over the last days, there are people in the media who maintain a heavily anti-American, anti-Western platform. But those who depend on the Kremlin or follow the line very attentively, they immediately flipped. I mean, they started to erase what they had been writing or commenting – all these threats to use nuclear weapons against Europe or America – and they refocused their anger from the United States to Europe, particularly onto Britain and France. And onto Zelensky.
The positive attitudes towards America and Donald Trump in the last four or five days have spiked upwards. We haven't seen that for many, many months. Even the far right, pro-war segment which was generally much more negative towards America before, now they are discussing how Russia will split the world in half with America, and rule the world this way. I am not joking.
One of the most notorious propagandists in Russia, Alexander Prokhanov – he's a writer and editor of the newspaper called Tomorrow – around the time of Trump's inauguration, he wrote a huge apocalyptic piece about how America is drowning, and we in Russia will use all our might to defeat it and defeat Ukraine and Europe. And Russia will be victorious. And just yesterday, he completely changed his tone. He said Donald Trump is a great strategist. And he spoke about a bright future where Russia, America and China would create a stable world of multipolarism and we all will prosper. And he's not the only one.
But there are some people [in the media] who are not happy. They worry that Putin and the Kremlin would go for concessions that are definitely not in Russia's favor. And while many commentators in America and Europe say a temporary ceasefire will only be in Putin's favor, I would say no. [Russian] society accepts the war generally, and the moment the war stops one way or another, the attitudes would definitely change and not in a favorable way for the Kremlin.
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Think of America’s “Vietnam syndrome,” multiplied by 10. First of all, Russia has big economic problems, maintaining an army of this size and retargeting production for primarily military purposes. That is beneficial for small portions of the population, and business and some territories. But other parts of Russia are really suffering, especially from agricultural sanctions. And that's a big problem.
Also, imagine that roughly half a million people with military experience, all of them come back, they know how to use drones, they know how to kill with drones, and they would definitely not be satisfied with their changed social status. Today they receive a pretty good salary for doing warfare. Then they come back to poor regions, and what will they do? Many will turn to crime. So this is a future that very few people want to see, but it's almost inevitable.
And the third thing, which is most important, is that Putin maintains his political hold of Russia in large part by pretending to be a successful strategist and war commander. I don't think that this image would be maintained if Russia signs some kind of a peace deal.
Inside Russia, many people expect that the change may help their life. People, first, who are suffering because of sanctions, without foreign cars, McDonald's, Starbucks and Italian fashion, and they hope these will come back to Moscow as soon as possible. And then the people who kind of feed the war with their bodies, people living in small towns and rural areas, I think they would probably be split. Some of them would prefer that the war would end, but some of them would not, because of the wealth that war has brought to some underdeveloped and poor areas. One of my sources recently traveled by the Trans-Siberian Express and said that the level of economic activity beyond Irkutsk, along the Chinese border, he’d never seen anything like it. Everywhere you see construction sites, cranes, and the reason is very simple: since the war began, all the traffic, the trucks and truck drivers and repair stations, hotels, they moved from the western border to the eastern border. And regions like Irkutsk, Chita, and others greatly benefit from that, and I don't think they want to lose it. So there'll probably be a serious split of opinion.
Kirillova: I have a strong feeling of deja vu because the same thing happened with the first Russian-Ukrainian war, and Russia’s [2014] annexation of Crimea and hybrid war in Donbas. After that, many people were shocked and they were sure that Russia would be punished, and some measures would be taken which would prevent a future Russian aggression. But it turned out that after the [2014-2015] Minsk agreements, most European countries and the United States turned back almost to business as usual with Russia. And that's why Russia invaded Ukraine in a full-scale invasion three years ago.
From my experience, not only as an analyst but as a human being, after 10 years of Russian-Ukrainian war, I understand perfectly that an unfair and unjust peace will lead us to another war. It's just a matter of time. Putin will not stop here if he does not see an adequate resistance to his activity. And Ukrainians will not forget and will not forgive everything that happened. And their demand, their requirement for justice will be stronger and stronger with time. It's not going to fade. So a new war will be just a matter of time.
And it's very dangerous that the West – the United States and perhaps even Europe, will again try to start business as usual, if we don't build any system for the prevention of future aggression. That worries me more than anything else. What I really didn't expect was that it could be done so sharply and so quickly.
The Russian media reaction has been predictable, and it has been ridiculous. One of explanations of this war for Putin's propagandists was always that it's a war for the liberation of Russia from some kind of Western oppression or, as they would say, the “Western yoke.” No one could ever describe exactly how this “yoke” manifested itself.
But what is going on in the Russian media now, in its analysis and reactions, suddenly the media in Russia looks and sounds like speechwriters for the press center of the U.S. Republican Party. And they try to represent everything that’s happened as a victory.
So for example, they said “Zelensky was shocked,” “Zelensky was so disappointed,” “Trump defeated Zelensky,” “Zelensky will be eliminated,” and “European leaders were shocked because of Trump.”
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Perhaps most interesting are some of Russia’s so-called radical patriots, who never agreed to negotiations – they didn't even support the idea of a negotiation to end the war. They used to publish article after article saying that [negotiations] could be a dead end, could be another trap, and we need to do what we need to do and we shouldn't trust the United States anymore. They were saying the U.S. has its own interests, they are not our friends.
Now? I checked today, especially those extreme right-wing sites, and now they are also presenting the latest news as a victory. For example, the most radical conservative website, which was always opposed to any negotiations, wrote that the result of any negotiations will be the end of Zelensky. But generally, the Russian media is celebrating. It doesn't mean that it's sincere celebration. They just follow instructions.
I think President Trump is following his electorate. He wants to show them that he is a good president and he cares how taxpayers' money was spent. We shouldn't simplify his motivation because he has his own interests. But the problem is that it's mostly domestic interests. It's not about global security. It's about his interests inside the United States. I am afraid that he is not interested to know the details about what is going on, because he has his own goal to end this war by any means for his reputation.
And Putin can represent any results as a victory. Don't forget this. So even the fact itself of his negotiation with Trump could be represented as, Now we are trying to achieve a new kind of global security, a new form and a new strategy of global security. And even this fact could be represented as a victory – that Yes, that new security was important, Ukraine never was important for us, that's what they say now. It's not about Ukraine, it's about this new architecture of global security and new world order, and they say that now we are constructing this new world order. This was our goal, so yes, we won. They can represent any result as a victory. And unfortunately, I would say that now, this time, it wouldn't be a total lie. Putin probably didn't win this war, but he didn't lose, and this is a disturbing factor.
Kucher: My personal reaction could be described with just one word: disappointment. My worst expectations are coming true. Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours or in a hundred days, whatever – but I thought he would be challenging Putin. He probably was not going to call Putin a killer, the way Joe Biden did, but perhaps imposing new sanctions, combining a carrot and stick – it would be the art of deal, because Trump brags about being a great dealmaker.
But what I'm seeing now, particularly in the past few days, is at least a tactical victory for Mr. Putin. Trump is repeating [Putin’s] rhetoric that Zelensky is a dictator, that he has a low approval rating – and by the way, he said he had a 4% rating. I wish I was there to ask this question to Donald Trump: where on earth did you get that number – 4%? Did Mr. Putin whisper this in your ear? [Editor’s note: the most recent polls give Zelensky an approval rating of between 52 and 63% in Ukraine].
I don't know whether Donald Trump is just making a mistake or this is his strategy, and that they have already made a deal with Mr. Putin. But again, it's definitely a tactical victory for Putin, and hopefully not a strategic victory.
The Russian media definitely welcomed the negotiations between the U.S. delegation and Russian delegation in Saudi Arabia. They keep quoting Trump, especially whatever Trump says about Zelensky. For example, an article by Komsomolskaya Pravda, Russia's most popular daily newspaper, their headline says, “Trump erased Zelensky.” And another headline, “Trump calls Zelensky ‘Dictator.’” And – “The U.S. has changed its attitude to the war – now they understand Ukraine started the war.”
By the way, that remark by Donald Trump – that Zelensky started the war – was welcomed throughout the Russian media world. Every Kremlin-controlled official media outlet keeps quoting Trump, and on Telegram and on RuTube, which is a Russian version of YouTube, a lot of bloggers keep quoting Trump saying that America has changed its attitude towards Russia.
And if there is anything amusing about this situation, it's to see how those Russian media outlets, and bloggers and influencers who had threatened to erase the United States from the face of Earth with Russian nukes – how now they have totally changed their tune and their rhetoric.
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Just a couple of months ago, I saw pictures of Russian nationalist movements carrying slogans portraying missiles, nuclear missiles, and inscriptions like, “Let's bombard Washington, DC” and “Let's bombard the White House.” And then even Vladimir Solovyov, Putin's top propagandist – he has a daily show on RuTube and a weekly political show on Russia's Channel 2 called “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov” – a month ago, he described Donald Trump as a “systematic enemy of Russia.” Anti-Trump rhetoric was also pretty strong when Trump was elected – especially after Trump, on the day of his inauguration, was asked a question about Vladimir Putin and Ukraine, and he said that Putin was destroying Russia. Trump's rhetoric was pretty harsh then. And the next day, all the Russian media were talking about how Mr. Trump is an enemy of Russia.
And now, of course, they're so happy. Now they're just quoting Trump. Their mood can be described as, “We have won. We have finally won this war.”
And it's really important to note that the negotiations in Saudi Arabia were not only about Ukraine. They were about the U.S.-Russian relationship, about Putin joining the club again. That's what Putin wants. And right now, I think he's ready to sacrifice pretty much everything just to get back into this club, just to sit with Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. The question is, what Trump hopes to get from Putin in return for the huge favor that he is doing him right now.
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