The foreign ministers of China and Russia met last week amid North Korean aggression and the potential for a U.S. deployed THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. While the threat of a nuclear North Korea is “unacceptable” to both, they are at least equally concerned about the potential for increased U.S. military presence as a result. China and Russia are “strategic partners” as the two powerhouses of the East operate in tandem when mutually beneficial yet remain unwilling to adopt formal ties.
Based on their geostrategic location, the two countries seek to shift the world order in their favor – from Western-centric towards the East. Both are pursuing territorial claims: Russia in Crimea and China in the South and East China Seas. They are becoming more active in international institutions, and they have promoted themselves as a non-Western alternative to a great power hegemon.
The closer ties between Russia and China have drawn concern from Washington. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in early February, “Russia and China are our most stressing competitors. They have developed and are continuing to advance military systems that seek to threaten our advantages in specific areas. And in some cases, they are developing weapons and ways of war that seek to achieve their objectives rapidly, before they hope, we can respond.”
While Russia and China need each other on the international scene, their cooperation is far from an alliance. Yun Sun, a Senior Associate at the Stimson Center, told The Cipher Brief, “China has no intention to rebuild the kind of alliance relationship like the one they had during the Cold War. China feels victimized, exploited and suppressed in the former formal alliance. With the changed balance of power between the two, a stronger, more assertive Beijing is unlikely to pursue such a path again.”
Even so, the two countries continue to foster economic ties. Much of this is a result of increased energy cooperation through a series of broad long-term projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The two states also aim to increase trade from its current $88.4 billion to $200 billion by 2020, and they plan to begin trading in their domestic currencies.
How close the ties between the Russian and Chinese economies truly are remains a debated topic, as the potential alignment of these two anti-Western powers would prove counter to U.S. geostrategic interests. And it is for this reason that Russia aims to publicize the strength of Russo-Chinese relations, says Tom Blackwell, CEO of EM Communications, a Moscow based financial communications and investor relations consultancy. “While it is certainly true that Russian companies have been told to aggressively pursue China links and to maximize publicity of any possible China deals, in some cases the publicity is actually true.”
The strengthening of political and economic ties has already produced clear benefits on both sides. The closer cooperation in energy and arms has helped to fuel China’s rise, and in turn, China has made Russia a stakeholder in its One Belt, One Road initiative and has been accommodating to the Kremlin’s rule in the post-Soviet era.
Of greater and more pressing concern for US security is the recent revelation that Russia and China would coordinate attacks on U.S. military intelligence satellites in the event of conflict. Such a plan illustrates the low-risk high-reward partnership both countries are seeking and adds credence to the fears of many who view this as only the beginning. While the two countries differ enough to thwart a full alliance, the potential for strategic coordination between Russia and China is a daunting prospect for many in the Pentagon.
Alexandra Viers and Will Edwards are International Producers at The Cipher Brief.
