BRUSSELS – Director of Israel’s Ministry of Intelligence Chagai Tzuriel came to this European city to get the word out that if Iran tries to build a long-term presence in Syria, Israel would have to act – a conflict that could possibly be avoided if U.S. troops stay there.
“Right now, our number one goal is to prevent Iran from basing itself militarily in Syria,” Tzuriel said, in a sit-down during the recent German Marshall Forum in Brussels. “If the U.S. has presence on the ground, which it has…and if it takes part in the political processes around the future of Syria, it can influence.”
Tzuriel on Monday would not comment on President Donald Trump’s recent comments about leaving Syria “very, very soon,” but it’s clear that if the U.S. doesn’t find a way to keep Iran from building military bases in Syria, Israel may well have to be the “other people” Trump referred to who will have to “take care of it.”
Israel put up grudgingly with Iran supporting a network of Shi’ite militias as Iranian advisors worked alongside Russia to prop up the Bashar Assad regime. But Israel opened fire on Iranian and Syrian forces in February after an Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) penetrated Israeli airspace near its northern border with Syria. Israel took out the UAV, and attacked the Syrian airbase from where the drone was controlled, but lost an F-16 jet in the process. It went on to launch strikes on Syrian air defenses and Iranian forces. Expect more of the same if Iran digs in.
“If they start building air, sea and ground bases for them and Shi’ite militias, a forward base like they built in Lebanon with Hezbollah, we have made clear we will not accept the situation,” Tzuriel said. “We have presented it as a red line.”
This is on top of the previous red lines: no transfer of advanced weapons to Syria; no violation of sovereignty of Israeli territory in the Golan Heights; and no manufacture of chemical weapons.
That growing list of worries is part of why Israel has been talking to Moscow, which has skin, and troops in the game.
“The Russians, having had a very formidable achievement in Syria, are not interested in destabilizing their achievement,” Tzuriel said. “They understand that if the Iranian proxy presence in Syria is a source of friction and tension and a potential flashpoint, they can also be a constructive player and can play a limiting and restraining role vis a vis Iran and Hezbollah.”
Tzuriel would like to convince his American counterparts to stay too.
TRACKING FUTURE THREATS
Tzuriel knows how messaging in Washington works – he spent 27 years in the Mossad, during which he served as head of research and analysis, its representative to the United States and deputy division head for strategic affairs.
Israel’s Ministry of Intelligence is an extension of the prime minister’s office, which oversees the foreign-intelligence-focused Mossad, and the internal security service Shabak or Shin Bet. Aman, the military intelligence agency, is run by Israel’s Defense Forces.
“We serve as the front office for the minister and also try to find various niches where we can do good things vis a vis the intel community, trying to cooperate with the Mossad and Shabak and military intelligence and other organizations, like the research and analysis section of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” he said.
Weaving their efforts together is part of Tzuriel’s broader mission to anticipate future threats, replicating intelligence sharing networks he’s been studying in Britain, the U.S. and Singapore, among others. He helped start something at the Ministry of Intelligence called the “Horizon Forum” or Cav Ofek, an unclassified forum that just met for the third time, bringing Israel’s security and intelligence agencies together with most of its civilian ministries.
“To remain relevant is a strategic challenge, not only for intel organizations but for the private sector,” he said. “Everybody is talking over the last few years of how to deal with this reality of the dizzying pace of change and instability.”
This draws on his experience building a small strategic forecasting office at the Mossad during his time there, that was removed from the tactical day-to-day operations so it could study future threats through a wider aperture. When asked if this was a bit like the U.S. National Intelligence Council – which does strategic forecasting for the Office of the Director of Intelligence – Tzuriel insisted this is a much more “modest” operation.
He said the next step at the Horizon Forum is to build a “horizon scanning mechanism,” to crunch and share data, scanning for trends and megatrends to guide investment and decision-making.
But it doesn’t take a forum to know what would be at the top of Tzuriel’s strategic threat list for many years to come: Tehran.
FUTURE THREAT: IRAN
Israel sees a myriad of potential future headaches from Iranian influence in the region – headaches that could lead to direct confrontations that could draw in its U.S. ally.
Those include: the strengthening ties between Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas; the ongoing transfer of advanced weapons and technology from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon (which already has an estimated 100,000-plus missiles pointed south at Israel); the presence of Hezbollah and Shiite militias on other side of Golan Heights; and Iran and its militias controlling border between Syria and Iraq.
Frustrated with the Obama administration’s go-slow approach with Syria, and calculating that the current America First president might want to leave as soon as possible – they’ve already started talking to Moscow.
“Russia is more dominant in Syria. It saw an opportunity and a gulf left by U.S. inaction earlier in the war,” he said. “It’s all frenemies - it’s all about cooperating where you can and disagreeing other places. “America is our strategic ally. Russia is a fact of life.”
What’s at stake? Syria itself is “a microcosm of global and regional relations – Russia and the U.S., Turkey and Iran, Arabs and non-Arabs, Shi’ites and Sunnis, ISIS, a-Qaida and its affiliates.” Fallout from Syria has already exported both terrorism and refugees, ripping through the economic and social fabric of the Mideast and Europe, he said.
So Israel would like the U.S. to stay in the fight, with at least a small number of troops on the ground.
“I hope they continue to be involved and continue to represent our concerns. Countering Iran, which is the biggest issue in the region, must be done in Syria first,” he said. “You can do a lot with a little. By being there, you are sitting around the table, shaping the future of Syria.”
