Sunday marks the fifteenth anniversary of 9/11, the date that altered the trajectory of America’s national security apparatus. The country’s focus turned from defending against hostile nation-states to undertaking significant counterterrorism measures and bureaucratic reforms in the wake of an unprecedented terrorist threat.
The concentrated effort to combat terrorism became known as the War on Terror, a phrase coined by then U.S. President George W. Bush in a speech delivered before a joint session of Congress on September 20, 2001. “Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but it does not end there,” Bush declared. “It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated,” the 43rd President affirmed.
In the ensuing years, America’s security community has worked diligently to neutralize threats posed by terrorists. After 15 years, it is important to take a step back and analyze how we’ve done in this fight and what challenges still remain.
To a certain extent, the U.S. security community has been successful in the War on Terror, as most clearly demonstrated by its ability to prevent another 9/11.
“We’ve been successful in preventing another catastrophic, 9/11-type of attack on the United States,” said Matthew Olsen, member of The Cipher Brief network and former Head of the National Counterterrorism Center. “That is a major achievement that reflects an extraordinary investment of people and money in counterterrorism over the past 15 years,” he continued.
“If you would have told me then that we would go more than 15 years without another major terrorist attack on our homeland, I would have said you were crazy,” said Representative Will Hurd in an exclusive interview with The Cipher Brief.
“The reason it’s been this long is because the CIA and our other security, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies are still operating as though it is September 12, 2001,” Hurd explained. “They have not let up one inch, and their efforts should be credited for why there has not been another foreign-planned terrorist attack inside the United States since 9/11.”
Another success that has been achieved in the aftermath of 9/11 has been enhanced cooperation between U.S. security, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies. “One of the biggest successes that we’ve seen is sustained leadership focus that forces intelligence fusion,” stated Michelle Flournoy, CEO of the Center for New American Security and a senior policy advisor to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, at an event hosted by The Atlantic.
Post 9/11 reforms, including the creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Counterterrorism Center, have helped institute much-needed information sharing between different agencies and have “dramatically enhanced our counterterrorism efforts,” explains Olsen.
However, as the U.S. has continually adjusted its strategy in the War on Terror, the tactics and ideologies employed by terrorist groups have also shifted. In fact, after the U.S. crippled al Qaeda’s capabilities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, ISIS emerged as a more potent enemy with a more lethal narrative.
“In the 15 years post 9/11, there have been almost no terrorist attacks launched at us from al Qaeda in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (in Pakistan),” explains Kevin Hulbert, member of The Cipher Brief network and former CIA Chief of Station. However, he continued, “The Islamic State (ISIS) is now the source of many more attacks than is al Qaeda, so any tactical victory against the al Qaeda core is a bit hollow when viewed in the context of the backdrop of a larger strategic failure against the spread of radical Muslim extremism.”
When comparing the two, al Qaeda seems to have dedicated its resources towards orchestrating spectacular events, including attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000, and of course 9/11, while ISIS’ motto seems to be one of inspiring individuals to carry out smaller scale and lone-wolf attacks in its name.
“We must accept the reality that the threat surface has changed, the number of actors has increased, and the profiles of those actors is significantly different than it was on September 10, 2001,” said former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge.
“After fifteen years of reflection, the country must accept the reality that [terrorism] is a global scourge and accept the reality that [another homegrown terrorist attack] will probably happen again here,” he continued. “We have no idea how many times, and there is no way to be able to predict it, particularly with individual actors,” said Ridge.
And despite best efforts put forth by U.S. law enforcement and intelligence communities, it is impossible to prevent every single attack. “Preempting lone wolf attackers inspired by terrorist groups is one of the hardest things for law enforcement to do,” says Representative Hurd.
Another way in which terrorist groups, namely ISIS, have adapted is in their use of social media websites and encrypted messaging capabilities to perpetuate their calls for and mobilization of jihad. Developing public-private partnerships that work in unison to shut down ISIS Twitter handles and decode ISIS’ encrypted messages will be critical for ensuring American national security moving forward.
Reflecting on the last 15 years, the U.S. has undoubtedly come a long way in its War on Terror, but the terrorist threat to the homeland remains. “The possibility of another homegrown extremist attack keeps me up at night,” said current Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Jonson. But, he continued, “We need to continually remind the American people of all we are doing. We are a remarkably resilient country and come back stronger every time.”
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
