OPINION — “The United States has partnered with the Moldovan government, private companies, and others to offer critical expertise and technical assistance to bolster Moldova’s cyber security across the government, across critical infrastructure, and, of course, through independent media. So, look, our message today is very clear: The United States will continue to support Moldova and the Moldovan people, and to expose and counter Russian efforts to undermine Moldovan democracy.”
That was White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby speaking on September 15 about the elections in Moldova on October 20 and November 3, when Moldovans would vote on changing their constitution to make European Union (EU) membership a goal, and at the same time elect a president to a four-year term as head of state.
In both elections, the Biden administration in the U.S. and Russia under President Vladimir Putin actively supported opposing positions. The U.S. supported Moldova’s membership in the EU and the re-election of President Maia Sandu, while Putin’s goal was to re-establish Moscow’s control over the former, tiny, Soviet republic, and put a new, more Russia-friendly leader in power.
But unlike in neighboring Ukraine, Moldova’s clash between Washington and Moscow involved public and covert so-called “soft power,” rather than the weapons of war.
Why Moldova matters
Why focus on elections in Moldova, a poor, small, landlocked country, about the size of Maryland, with a population of 3.6 million that until 1991 was part of the Soviet Union?
I do so because it’s a striking example of the different approach to foreign policy that is up for consideration today, as Americans choose between Kamala Harris, who would carry on support for countries such as Moldova; and Donald Trump, who probably would not.
In the October 20th election, 1.5 million Moldovans went to the polls, and by a thin 50.35 percent voted “Yes” to join the EU, helped largely from votes of pro-EU Moldovans living abroad. President Maia Sandu received only 42.3 percent of the vote for president and was forced to face a runoff election against a pro-Russian candidate, former Moldova Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. In Sunday’s runoff election, Sandu ended up with 55.33% of the overall vote and won only because of strong backing from Moldovans voting from overseas. Within the country’s borders, she lost by a narrow margin. The pro-Moscow Socialist Party that backed Stoianoglo said it did not view Sandu’s presidency as legitimate, calling her the “president of the diaspora” and alleging widespread falsification.
Moldova is a deeply polarized nation. A large number of educated Moldovan citizens are working abroad because of a lack of jobs at home. That diaspora, along with people in the capital, Chisinau, mostly favored Sandu and joining the EU; people in rural areas and the pro-Russian separatist regions voted against them.
Both the October 20 and November 3 elections – the EU referendum and the presidential vote – have drawn allegations of fraud.
The scale of Russian influence
Moldova’s Ambassador to the United States, Viorel Ursu, discussed the situation in an October 23 meeting at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Ursu described “the expense, the scale and bluntness of Russian operations to affect the integrity of election and influence people’s choice,” adding, “Every single tool from the Soviet hybrid war toolbox was used. Some of the operations were well-documented and revealed by either law enforcement or brave investigative journalists.”
Ursu said, “There are armies of online trolls and call centers that were established to spread deep-fake videos and false information about the EU, either about selling the land to Europeans or hosting immigrants from Europe.”
He referred to a vote-buying scheme that Moldovan prosecutors said had been orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia last year in a Moldovan court of fraud and money laundering. Shor denied any wrongdoing. Prosecutors alleged Shor paid $39 million to more than 130,000 potential Moldovan voters through an internationally sanctioned Russian bank in September and October. Anticorruption authorities have conducted hundreds of searches and seized over $2.7 million (2.5 million euros) in cash as they attempted to crack down on the scheme.
At the CSIS October 23 event, two U.S. officials described Biden administration activities in Moldova that helped counter Russian fraudulent voter activities.
Christopher Smith, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern Europe, spoke of the U.S. “publicly outing and explaining the Russian playbook when it comes to cyber attacks and other attempts to undermine Moldova’s democracy and electoral processes.”
Smith added, “We often of course share with our Moldova counterparts intelligence that we gather in private channels to help them address threats that we identify. But we took the extraordinary step twice this year, once with our allies and partners from the UK and Canada, and once on our own with a statement read out by John Kirby from the White House podium, to underscore and explain using declassified intelligence about exactly how Russia uses these types of instruments, cyber, vote buying, and other elements in order to undermine democratic processes in Moldova.”
Smith also said that U.S. Treasury sanctions had been applied “against multiple elements of Ilan Shor’s network…in order to disrupt not only the network, but the flow of financing that fuels these [election] efforts.”
Mark Simakovsky, Europe Deputy Assistant Administrator of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), talked about the increased support that the U.S. government and USAID are providing in support of Moldova’s cyber needs.
USAID provided $1.5 million and along with the United Kingdom and Sweden opened a Cybersecurity Academy in Moldova that is developing a stronger and more capable cyber workforce, deploying critical tools for cyber defense, sharing cyber threat information and incident response, and building the resilience of the information environment, Simakovsky said.
He added, “Some of that [cyber work] we accelerated and deployed some additional assistance prior to the election.”
Yesterday, President Biden congratulated President Sandu “on her historic re-election as the President of Moldova.” Biden went on to point out, “For months, Russia sought to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions and election processes. But Russia failed. The Moldovan people have exercised their democratic right to choose their own future, and they have chosen to pursue a path aligned with Europe and democracies everywhere.”
As illustrated above, the U.S. government has a variety of soft-power tools through which it can pursue foreign policy goals, such as supporting allied or friendly foreign countries such as Moldova – without resorting to military means.
Today’s election could determine how much of either will be used in the future.
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