OPINION — “Due to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, rolling blackouts occurred regularly across Ukraine during the quarter, especially during evening hours, when demand for electricity is highest. Blackouts are often rotated between regions or sectors (such as industrial versus residential consumers) so part of the country was lacking some power generation at any given time.”
That’s a quote from the latest quarterly report [April 1-to-June 30] written jointly by the Inspectors General of the Defense Department (DoD), State Department, and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) covering oversight of Ukraine elements of the U.S.’ Operation Atlantic Resolve that was sent to Congress and publicly released August 15.
Many of the dollar figures have been publicized, and there are limited reports of on-the-scene audits because of wartime conditions. However, sections in the 166-page report are devoted to situations in Ukraine which have not received much public attention, such as the “rolling blackouts” mentioned above, along with the need for additional fighters, removal of land mines and Ukraine’s media controls.
The amount of power lost since March – before Russia’s heavy barrage against Ukrainian infrastructure early Monday – has been estimated at some nine gigawatts, “an amount equal to the peak power demand of the Netherlands,” according to the IG report. Russian energy attacks have led The National Bank of Ukraine to downgrade Ukraine’s expected GDP growth in 2024 from 3.6 percent to 3 percent, according to the report.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) said, “The Ukrainian government has limited resources to rebuild the damaged units to bring power back into the grid before the winter,” and “even with significant additional repairs or procurements ahead of this winter, continued attacks will prevent the ability of Ukraine’s power generation system to meet peak winter demand.”
USAID has worked to strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s electric grid. DoE and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) have focused on nuclear energy and radiological emergency preparedness and response. The Ukrainian government, working with international partners, is procuring materials for infrastructure repair, but it’s unclear, according to the IG report, how much generation capacity Ukraine can restore before the heating season begins this autumn.
USAID, which so far has dedicated nearly $1 billion in energy assistance to Ukraine since Putin’s February 2022 invasion, announced in May a new five-year, $439 million contract for a California company to provide engineering and consulting services to the Kyiv government to advance energy security and resilience. Because of emergency needs related to Russia’s spring 2024 attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, $41 million of this funding has already been devoted to an energy security project.
It is all needed, as proved by Monday’s Russian attack involving at least 100 missiles and 100 drones targeted at energy infrastructure across at least 10 Ukraine regions. The assault came during morning rush hour and caused power outages in several areas, including Kyiv.
Power – and manpower
The size of its fighting force has also become an issue for Ukraine.
In April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed four laws intended to increase the number of Ukrainian men eligible for mobilization. One lowered the age for being conscripted from 27 to 25; another increased by fivefold fines for those who fail to register or appear for service; another allowed prisoners to join the army and the fourth provided incentives to soldiers, such as cash bonuses or money toward buying a house or car.
The IG report said, “Since then, 1.4 million men have updated their contact details in the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) electronic database.” Another 20,000 prisoners in Ukraine are eligible and if they sign up, they must serve for the duration of the war. Last month, Ukraine made dual citizens of other countries liable for military service and prohibited them from leaving Ukrainian territory. Under Ukraine’s current martial law, Ukrainian men from 18 to 60 years of age are not allowed to leave the country.
According to the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, “The UAF has indicated a need to increase by up to 500,000 personnel,” to provide replacements for currently undermanned front-based units.t
The IG report said that as of this quarter, “the UAF numbered approximately 700,000 personnel, of whom approximately 300,000 were located on the front line. On the battlefield, Russian forces typically outnumber UAF forces.”
Ukraine has claimed that approximately 20,000 foreigners from 52 countries had voluntarily joined the UAF. It said that some, as of August 2022, were in Ukrainian military intelligence and some in the UAF. Additionally, according to the IG report, “Ukraine employs non-Ukrainian nationals in irregular roles, including paramilitary organizations similar to the Russian Volunteer Corps, and maintains a small reconnaissance company composed of non-Ukrainians that is part of the UAF 59th Brigade.”
The dangers of land mines
Removal of Russian-planted land mines in areas formerly occupied by Russian forces is also a major issue.
“The Russian military has made extensive use of land mines in Ukraine…According to media reporting, approximately 30 percent of Ukraine’s territory—an area larger than Florida—may be covered with mines, which would make Ukraine the most heavily mined country in the world,” the IG report said. However, continuous fighting has blocked de-mining teams from operating in areas near the frontlines.
As of the end of June, the U.S. had obligated approximately $179 million and previously expended more than $120 million in Ukraine for the removal of anti-tank and anti-vehicle mines, anti-personnel mines and booby traps. One specific target is de-mining currently unusable agriculture land in Ukraine to shorten the food-growing insecurities.
The IG report said that to identify potentially mined areas, Ukrainians and their partners have used “newer technologies, such as artificial intelligence, to determine highly probable areas of mined locations. Most efforts have involved the use of unmanned aircraft fitted with updated sensors and cameras to detect and identify mines and unexploded ordnance, both surface and buried.”
The State Department’s Bureau of Political Military Affairs’ Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement has spent $16 million training and deploying approximately 70 de-mining teams to survey and clear minefields and provide explosive ordnance risk education, according to the IG report.
State’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs has provided Ukraine’s National Police Ukraine (NPU) with $9.8 million worth of equipment for explosive ordnance disposal operations, including 44 vehicles, metal detectors, x-ray and blasting machines. The NPU has expanded its explosive ordnance disposal personnel from 400 to nearly 550 officers and will focus its de-mining work in the Kharkiv region, where, according to the IG report, the 40 percent once under Russian occupation currently contains land mines.
The IG report has a variety of other items that give a further sense of what is going on in Ukraine that does not make the headlines.
For example, buried in the report is also a brief notice that the new NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), established last month at NATO’s Washington session, will take over some of the job of aligning military-equipment donations with Ukraine’s needs and coordinating deliveries.
NSATU will probably be led by Lt. Gen. Curtis A. Buzzard, who just took over as commander of the U.S. Security Assistance Group – Ukraine (SAG-U). SAG-U, based in Wiesbaden, Germany along with the International Donor Coordination Center, evaluates Ukrainian requests for training and equipment, identifies which partner nation can provide the assistance, and ensures that the assistance is delivered in a timely manner. Some of those duties will be taken over by NSATU, which will be staffed by 700 U.S. and other allied personnel from across NATO countries.
At the same time, according to the IG report, “SAG-U established SAG-U Operations-Kyiv, a small group of rotational U.S. military advisory personnel in Kyiv. SAG-U personnel do not serve in a combat role.” This U.S. military group works directly with Ukraine Armed Forces leadership “to facilitate effective employment of U.S. military assistance,” and “operate under Chief of Mission authority,” according to the IG report. Because SAG-U advisors are typically in Ukraine for only a few months, they have limited time to build relationships with Ukrainian counterparts.
Although IG reports are primarily read for their oversight of spending of U.S. government funds, as this quarterly report on Ukraine shows, they can also keep a reader up on what’s going on in a country or an agency.
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