OPINION — Following the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a mainstream narrative has arisen, suggesting that no real chance for peace – absent a total defeat of Russia – exists between Ukraine and Russia.
Western observers, diplomats, intelligence officers, politicians, and journalists have frequently labeled Putin a thug, a psychopath, and a genocidal murderer who cannot possibly be negotiated with. With his genocidal imperative (for which Putin has been indicted for war crimes), ruthlessness, scorched earth tactics, and maximalist negotiating positions, such sentiments do not appear unreasonable.
But in last week’s historic prisoner swap, in which Americans Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva, Paul Whelan, and numerous Russian political prisoners were freed in exchange for FSB convicted murderer Vadim Krasikov, numerous SVR illegals, and several Russian convicted cyber criminals, Putin proved them wrong.
As he has done throughout his political career, Putin showed that he can pivot from ruthlessness to civility, and back, and come across as reasonable, rational, diplomatic, and businesslike. The prisoner swap demonstrated that Putin is the ultimate black swan. As in any geopolitical black swan events, it’s worth considering its long-term implications and higher-order effects.
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Putin’s war in Ukraine has stalled, with neither side currently winning, even as Ukraine continues to strike boldly inside Russia. Russia has suffered immense casualties, with hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers killed or wounded, a fact which Putin – who knows his Russian history - can ill afford to ignore.
While Russia has again proven that it can weather harsh western economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the domestic impacts of a huge brain drain, compounded by rising inflation, carries political risk even for Putin’s ‘power vertical’ form of autocracy. And like any western politician, Putin craves – now more than ever – good news.
As in 2010, when he welcomed the SVR illegals back home, Putin - a trained KGB officer - knows that the KGB’s illegals are the elite of its intelligence services, honored in the SVR’s pantheon of heroes.
But the swap is also a tribute to this administration’s patient diplomacy in a negotiation that involved multiple allies such as Germany, Norway, Poland, and Slovenia (also Turkey). The Biden administration should be commended for its message discipline and ability to carry out such delicate and secret negotiations, where a leak could have undone it all.
Former Fox journalist Tucker Carlson, who repeatedly brought up the fates of Gershkovich and Whelan earlier this year, in his one-on-one interview with Putin, deserves thanks and credit as well.
But the question remains, why now? Why would Putin make this deal now, rather than next year, after the inauguration of a new American President? Did he think that he’d get a better deal now? Or are there other, non-linear variables at play?
In his 1989 inauguration speech, President George H.W. Bush famously said – in a signal to Iran – that “goodwill begets goodwill.” Putin is, as an experienced politician, leader, and intelligence officer, cognizant of such historical facts and their outcomes. I’d suggest that Putin has more on his mind than the mere return of his beloved SVR illegals and an FSB murderer. And like Vice President Kamala Harris – a former prosecutor and state Attorney General – Putin understands the meaning of the legal term “plea bargain.” As a forensic psychiatrist formerly specializing in murder and capital murder cases, such terms and conditions resonate with me. I am aware of (and was privy to) several plea bargains in murder cases where the defendant received probation or a light sentence —- even less than the 5 years that FSB assassin Krasikov spent behind bars.
It's possible to presume that Putin too, a student of reciprocity, believes that goodwill begets goodwill, and has offered a peace feeler not only to outgoing President Biden, but to Presidents Zelensky and the next American President. Putin has given numerous hints and signals that in his failed Ukraine war, he seeks an exit ramp, allowing him to declare ‘victory.’
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But there are other variables, other black swans. The recent attempted assassination of President Trump, President Biden’s decision to step down as a candidate, and the rapid, historic rise of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate have upended this summer’s unpredictable geopolitics. Perhaps President Putin, a disruptor at heart, now prefers the predictability of a [potential] future President Harris, vs. the famous unpredictability of President Trump’s ‘art of the deal.’ There is, even in Putin’s Russia, a need for stabilnost. And Putin cannot have failed to notice other black swan events, such as the assassination of his ally, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel’s re-establishment of deterrence - which is largely psychological – and Iran’s subsequent weakness and intelligence failure, has likely given Putin – as well as Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ leader Yahya Sinwar – significant pause.
Negotiations, even with an indicted war criminal such as Putin are thereby possible, but very challenging, and require psychological understanding, empathy, and a willingness to re-examine existing biases and paradigms. The prisoner swap is full of such possibilities. It is up to President Biden, Vice President Harris, and America’s allies, to seize them, and to recall late President Bush’s phrase, “goodwill begets goodwill.” The door has opened, and the time for further diplomacy is now.
And we should send another message to President Putin —- Russia is a superpower, and a great historical nation. Show your magnanimity and return the wrongfully detained American teacher Marc Fogel home, to his family. NOW. Spasibo.
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