President Donald Trump today announced a rollback to the Obama-era opening to Cuba in a speech at the Manuel Artime Theater in Miami’s Little Havana.
“Effective immediately I am canceling the previous administration's one-sided deal with Cuba,” he said. The Obama-era deal opened diplomatic relations between the two Cold War foes in 2015, for the first time in more than five decades.
Trump said the U.S. “will enforce the ban on tourism" – a ban that was technically in effect under the Obama policy too, although it was somewhat unregulated, allowing U.S. tourists to visit the island nation.
The American Security Project’s Maggie Feldman-Pitch told The Cipher Brief that Trump’s changes seem more “cosmetic in nature,” noting that there was never “an abundance of free travel anyway.”
The new Cuba policy will also forbid most U.S. business dealings with the Cuban military, which runs the Armed Forces Business Enterprises Group, a conglomerate involved in all sectors of Cuba’s economy. There will be exceptions for air and sea travel.
"My action today bypasses the [Cuban] military and the government to help the Cuban people themselves,” said Trump.
There are already some deals in the works between U.S. companies and Cuban military-run or -affiliated entities, following the Obama opening, noted Kevin Hulbert, a former senior intelligence officer in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations. It is unclear what will happen to those deals, he told The Cipher Brief.
Hulbert, now the President of XK Group, a strategic advisory company, said that even under Obama “not a whole lot changed” with U.S. economic and other relations with Cuba because President Barack Obama couldn’t “unilaterally undo 40 years of U.S. law.”
Still, Hulbert said “Trump’s statements today rolled things back to where they were a year before” – even with Trump maintaining formal diplomatic relations.
Trump will not close the reopened U.S. Embassy in Cuba. He also will not halt recently resumed direct U.S.-Cuba commercial flights.
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) called these changes “targeted and strategic” and said they “advance the Cuban people's aspirations for economic and political liberty."
However, Benjamin Rhodes, a former Obama aide who helped negotiate rapprochement, said, “If you want Cuba to change and reform, we are doing the opposite of what would be most likely to bring about reforms.”
When asked about prohibiting U.S. contact with parts of the Cuban society affiliated with the armed forces, retired Brigadier General Dave McGinnis said on June 15 that this would eliminate existing U.S. intelligence cooperation and expand the demand on the U.S. Coast Guard by shrinking the Coast Guard’s capabilities in the Caribbean because there will no longer be Cuban assistance.
“There is a lot of negative, and I don’t see a single positive,” he said.
“This decision by the Trump Administration to reverse progress in U.S.-Cuba relations sends the wrong message to the world about American leadership,” commented Senator Mark Warner (D-VA).
Retired Marine Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney warned that Russian and Chinese influence on the island is widespread, and this about-face by the U.S. could therefore create significant national security concern.
“Limiting people-to-people contact and forcing a renegotiation after 2.5 years of slow and steady progress creates the possibility of Cuba turning away from the U.S. and to Russia or China instead,” Cheney told The Cipher Brief.
“In fact, a Russian tanker arrived on the island in early May,” he noted.
The Russian tanker arrived on May 10 after Russian energy conglomerate Roseneft signed a deal with the Cuban government to provide oil.
Cuba has proved a key player in negotiations in the hemisphere.
“As Cuba’s role in brokering [the recent peace] deal in Colombia reminds us, Havana is a key player in regional politics,” said Cheney, noting that as an increasingly unstable and anti-U.S. Venezuela continues its downward spiral, “It is in the best interest of the United States, the Cuban people, and the people of Venezuela for the U.S. and Cuba to work together here” – something that may be under threat with Trump’s announcement.
Still, some are welcoming Trump’s re-evaluation of U.S.-Cuba policy. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) said, “I appreciate the Administration for re-evaluating U.S. policy toward Cuba based on whether it’s achieving results” and the U.S. will “pursue a policy that over time will cause Cubans to realize their aspirations for a better way of life.”
Under Trump’s order, the Treasury and Commerce Departments will now have 30 days to start writing new regulations. They will only take effect once they are complete. No deadline has yet been set.
Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
